by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Oct 04, 2022
Time: Noon ET
Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Where to watch: ESPNU
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Florida -11
FanDuel: Florida -10.5
BetMGM: Florida -10.5
Caesars: Florida -11
Season record
Missouri: 2-3 (0-2 SEC)
Florida: 3-2 (0-2 SEC)
Another week, another crazy set of circumstances in college football! Georgia almost loss, Bryce Young left but Alabama still won, etc. All the craziness, all the drama through a month into the season. What in the world are we getting next? How about starting with a 6-1-0 run from Kyle Hunter this past weekend? Our top handicapper in the college football realm had himself a very good week. What will next week have in store with a lot of shakings in the top 25 to be expected? Make sure to follow all of our champion handicappers and their picks in our Best Bets section, where you can expect more of Kyle's and others' picks to get you on the right side of winning this week at bigal.com.
Missouri - Florida preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Missouri: lost 26-22 vs. No. 1 Georgia
Florida: won 52-17 vs. Eastern Washington
The Missouri Tigers nearly sent the city of Colombia into an unmitigated frenzy on Saturday, to the point where I don’t think the city would’ve ever recovered from the continuous drunken escapades that would’ve taken place had the Tigers defeated the Georgia Bulldogs on Saturday. Alas, make it 0-17 for Mizzou all-time against the No. 1 team in the country and another week to attempt to get things back on track for a program in search of an identity. Mizzou had a 16-6 lead at the half before ultimately succumbing to a 14-point fourth quarter for Georgia, losing 26-22. Mizzou quarterback Brady Cook threw for 192 yards and a touchdown, and Dominic Lovett caught six passes for 84 yards. The most surprising thing of this whole ordeal was that Mizzou had 294 total yards of offense, Georgia had 481 but turned it over twice.
The Missouri Tigers nearly sent the city of Colombia into an unmitigated frenzy on Saturday, to the point where I don’t think the city would’ve ever recovered from the continuous drunken escapades that would’ve taken place had the Tigers defeated the Georgia Bulldogs on Saturday. Alas, make it 0-17 for Mizzou all-time against the No. 1 team in the country and another week to attempt to get things back on track for a program in search of an identity. Mizzou had a 16-6 lead at the half before ultimately succumbing to a 14-point fourth quarter for Georgia, losing 26-22. Mizzou quarterback Brady Cook threw for 192 yards and a touchdown, and Dominic Lovett caught six passes for 84 yards. The most surprising thing of this whole ordeal was that Mizzou had 294 total yards of offense, Georgia had 481 but turned it over twice.
''We were self-inflicted wounds away from winning that game,'' Tigers coach Eli Drinkwitz said.
It’s just the type of game where Mizzou doesn’t know how to win yet, and that’s OK. This is a group that isn’t there yet. It’s not the kind of team that’s going to shock the world and be in an SEC title game and play in the Cotton Bowl like they were over a decade ago. There’s still time for them to get going, but the building blocks at the very least are there for a foundation. How long that foundation can actually stay afloat is an entirely different discussion. But if you’re the Tigers, you have to find a way to build off the momentum from this game, however which way you can. The opening spread doesn’t help with the Tigers being underdogs as high as 10.5 points, but welcome to the life of college football. One loss, and things are never that good again.
Talk about a team that hasn’t been able to build around early success: The Florida Gators have quickly fallen off the realm of actually being cared about in the football world. Remember that win over Utah? It seems like eons ago, but since then, it’s been a 2-2 stretch that included a loss to Tennessee, among other ho-hum performances. But the Gators did win over Eastern Washington on Saturday by the tune of 52-17. Anthony Richardson went 8 of 10 passing for 240 yards and two touchdowns, while running for 45 more, and the backups were in seemingly with plenty of time left.
''He did a great job,'' coach Billy Napier said of Richardson. ''He's a product of his work. I think you're seeing a guy that's settling in a little bit. He's starting to get more familiar with what his routine should look like. ... Just taking a true professional approach to the preparation part.''
Unfortunately for the Gators, they’ve needed more consistency from the quarterback position in order to believe that this could be a success. There’s still time for Richardson to become a solid quarterback and rebuild his draft stock, but there’s nothing that screams charisma right now.
Prediction
This is a clear pick-your-poison type of bet. Florida should run away with this one and should easily handle Mizzou by talent alone. But the Gators have not been a good spread team as of late, going just 7-16 ATS over the last three years. If you’re really buying into Mizzou springboarding that loss to Georgia into something, I wouldn’t put too much stock into it. Florida by 17
Betting trends
Missouri is 10-9 ATS in its last 19 conference matchups.
Missouri is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 following a game at home.
Florida is 56-49 ATS after playing a non-conference game since 1992.
Florida is 2-9 ATS off a home win in its last 11.
Statistical leaders
Missouri:
Passing: Brady Cook -- 997 yards, 5 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Cody Schrader -- 262 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Dominic Lovett -- 460 yards, 2 TD
Florida:
Passing: Anthony Richardson -- 1,116 yards, 4 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Montrell Johnson Jr. -- 282 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Justin Shorter -- 314 yards, 1 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Missouri Tigers - Florida Gators prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
