by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Sep 19, 2022
Game time: Noon ET
Venue: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Line yet to be released
FanDuel: Auburn -6.5
BetMGM: Line yet to be released
Caesars: Line yet to be released
Season record
Missouri: 2-1
Auburn: 2-1
We are about to get rolling into conference season in college football. This is where the fun truly begins. And if you're trying to find the right expert handicappers to get you the right picks for those games, look no further than Kyle Hunter on a 15-5-1 run since the beginning of the season. What will next week hold? Make sure to check out Kyle's thoughts on our Best Bets page, where you can get a look at the rest of our champion handicappers and get in on the action!
Missouri - Auburn preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Missouri: won 34-17 vs. Abilene Christian
Auburn: lost 41-12 vs. Penn State
There’s a definite pro and con when starting the year with four straight games at home. For one thing, you don’t have to go far to play football. You get to be in the comfort of your own friendly confines. It can be great on the body and mind as a college football player.
There’s a definite pro and con when starting the year with four straight games at home. For one thing, you don’t have to go far to play football. You get to be in the comfort of your own friendly confines. It can be great on the body and mind as a college football player.
But if you’re in the mindset of the Auburn Tigers, and you lose one of those games, your entire mindset can be thrown into whack. And that’s exactly what happened with Auburn when losing to the Penn State Nittany Lions this past Saturday. Suddenly, the good vibes in Auburn are gone after a 2-0 start.
But this upcoming week should bode well for the Tigers in a battle against, well, the Tigers. The Missouri Tigers will open conference play this week in Auburn and if there was a time for Auburn to get back on track and at least get to 3-1, it’s a bounce-back effort against Mizzou when we really don’t have a sense of how the black and gold looks right now.
The immediate concern goes toward Auburn after getting blasted by Penn State on Saturday. Not that it should come as a shock because Penn State is a top team in the Big Ten, but it was a classic offensive output from the Nittany Lions with nearly 500 yards of total offense.
Auburn, though, couldn’t do anything offensively. The ground game averaged just 3.3 yards per carry. Quarterback T.J. Finley had 152 yards passing but was later replaced by Robby Ashford in the second half and nothing was any better. It was a 14-6 game at halftime before Penn State took over.
"We're disappointed in the performance," Auburn head coach Bryan Harsin said. "We're disappointed in the loss. ... You can look at the stats. It's pretty matter-of-fact."
Auburn’s defense didn’t even get anything going in terms of getting to the quarterback. No sacks, no turnovers, just an atrocious performance in Jordan-Hare. So, you probably read all of this and wonder why in the world Auburn will beat Mizzou this week? Because this program, no matter how agonizingly painful they can be, will not lose twice in a row at home.
Yes, Auburn is 7-7 ATS at home in its last 14 and 9-9 ATS in its last 18 conference matchups, but if this comes down to a defensive game, I trust Auburn to get it done. The under is 14-4 in Auburn’s last 18 conference matchups.
Plus, there’s something about winning by just 17 against Abilene Christian that doesn’t sit well with me. Missouri winning 34-17 at home doesn’t come off as impressive against the FCS club. Brady Cook had a great performance throwing the ball, however, going 21 of 30 for 292 yards and three touchdowns.
Putting up 31 points and having close to 500 total yards was really all Mizzou needed to win that game, and I suppose when you’re just trying to win, it really doesn’t matter. You’d like to see a bigger margin of victory if you’re favored by 31.5. At least from my point of view.
Prediction
Auburn should win this game by a couple of scores. You’re talking about a group that is understandably angry for laying that egg in front of the home crowd, something that doesn’t really happen in front of that stadium. If Auburn doesn’t roll by a couple of scores, heads might roll. Auburn by 17
Betting trends
Missouri is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 conference games.
Missouri is 9-25 ATS in its last 34 road games.
Missouri is 2-7 ATS in its last nine following a straight-up win.
Auburn is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a straight-up loss at home.
Auburn has failed to cover in its last four overall.
Statistical leaders
Missouri:
Passing: Brady Cook -- 329 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Brady Cook -- 117 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Dominic Lovett -- 142 yards
Auburn:
Passing: T.J. Finley -- 279 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Tank Bigsby -- 198 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Ja'Varrius Johnson -- 158 yards
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
