by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Dec 14, 2021Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Game time: 8 p.m. ET; Dec. 22, 2021
Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Army -3.5
BetMGM: Army -3.5
Caesars: Army -3.5
Season record
Missouri: 6-6
Army: 8-4
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Missouri - Army preview and analysis
After such a strong season for the Army Black Knights, they should be able to handle business well in the Armed Forces Bowl against the Missouri Tigers in a little more than a week.
The Black Knights ended the regular season on a 4-1 run despite losing 17-13 to the Navy Midshipmen and resulting in a split in the Commander-in-Chief trophy for the first time since 1993, along with the Air Force Falcons.
But on this December, Army and Air Force will be playing for postseason glory. Even though Navy won’t be playing, the Midshipmen are to be commended for even making such a fun run and covers galore.
Army’s triple-option attack has been very good this season, averaging 286.4 rushing yards per game and scoring 33.6 points per game. Quarterback Christian Anderson totaled for 1,239 yards and 12 touchdowns through the air and on the ground. Tyrell Robinson led the way with 603 rushing yards; five players accumulated at least 300 rushing yards for the Black Knights.
Defensively, Army is led by Andre Carter II with a team-high 13.5 sacks and leading a defensive unit that gave up just 22 points per game and held teams to less than 400 yards of total offense.
No doubt that Missouri will present some sort of challenge for the Army defense, but not enough to avoid being a one-dimensional unit. The Tigers got two big wins late against the South Carolina Gamecocks and Florida Gators to reach that six-win threshold, living the fullest life of an underdog one could reach.
Mizzou is led by running back Tyler Badie, who had an astounding 1,604 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. The Mizzou ground game was the biggest reason why quarterback Connor Bazelak didn’t completely implode this season.
Bazelak threw for 2,548 yards and completed 65 percent of his passes, but the ratio of 16 TDs to 11 interceptions left a lot to be desired for Missouri. The Tigers’ offense became a one-dimensional level of shock-and-awe, and getting invited to bowl season and playing in any of the bowl games is quite the miracle.
Back to Badie: He had 48 carries in 2020 and only 108 in 2019. In the 2019 campaign, he ran for 457 yards. That means he ran the ball 160 more times this season and had almost 1,200 more yards than he did two years ago. If he’s not a first-round pick, the world deserves to know why. Imagine if he was running like this with the Army offense.
Badie ran for over 200 total yards in rushing in three of Mizzou’s final five games. He’s the workhorse that the Tigers will need to rely on. Army’s defense allows only 111.3 rushing yards per game. It’s going to be a grind for Mizzou.
Prediction
Missouri has been awful against the spread. Following a loss, the Tigers are just 3-15 ATS and are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games. Badie’s coming-out party should be great, but in the end, I trust Army to halt Mizzou’s passing game. Army by 13
Betting trends
Missouri is 11-21 ATS in its last 32 games overall.
Missouri is 3-10 ATS off a loss to a conference rival.
Army is 9-2 ATS after allowing 125 passing yards or fewer the previous game.
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
