by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Monday, Nov 22, 2021
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Friday, November 26, 2021
Venue: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Missouri +14.5, Arkansas -14.5; Over/Under: 62.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Missouri +14, Arkansas -14; Over/Under: 62.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Missouri +14, Arkansas -14; Over/Under: 62.5 points
Season Record
Missouri Tigers: 6-5 (4th place, SEC East)
Arkansas Razorbacks: 7-4 (6th place, SEC West)
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Missouri Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Missouri Tigers: won at home on Nov. 20 against the Florida Gators in overtime 24-23.
Arkansas Razorbacks: lost on the road on Nov. 20 against the Alabama Crimson Tide 42-35.
Missouri Tigers Analysis
Missouri is coming into this college football game with a 6-5 record overall and they are 1-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 8th conference matchup of the year and they are currently 3-4 in their conference games this season. They have won 3 of their last 4 games and are coming into this one on a 2 game winning streak after another win in their last game. Connor Bazelak played alright in that game as he completed 15/26 passes for 165 yards and 1 touchdown. Tyler Badie led the team in rushing with 146 yards and 1 touchdown on 27 carries in what was a very nice day for him on the ground. Tauskie Dove led the receivers with 72 yards on 2 receptions while Niko Hea had 68 yards and 1 touchdown on 3 receptions. Chad Bailey led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 1 assisted one. Trajan Jeffcoat and Jatorian Hansford both recorded the only sacks in that game for them with 1 each while no one on the defense came up with any interceptions in that one. They have scored 339 points in their 11 games this season averaging 30.8 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 382 points against them allowing 34.7 PPG. Their offense is averaging 420.8 YPG while their defense is allowing 447.2 YPG.
Arkansas Razorbacks Analysis
Arkansas is coming into this game with a 7-4 record overall and they are 5-1 in their home games this season. This will be the 8th conference matchup on their schedule this year and they are currently 3-4 in their conference games this season. They have won 3 of their last 4 games but are coming into this one off of a loss in their last game which snapped a 3 game winning streak that they were on. KJ Jefferson played a good game in their last one as he completed 22/30 passes for 326 yards and 3 touchdowns. Reid Bauer also completed 1/1 pass for 32 yards and 1 TD. Trelon Smith led the team in rushing with 42 yards on 9 carries while Dominique Johnson had 23 yards and 1 touchdown on 9 carries. Treylon Burks had a very nice day as he led the receivers with 179 yards and 2 touchdowns on 8 receptions while Blake Kern and Raheim Sanders both caught the other touchdown passes with 1 each. Grant Morgan led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 6 assisted ones. Simeon Blair, Hayden Henry, Eric Gregory, and Zach Williams all recorded the only sacks in that game with 1 each while no one on the defense was able to come up with an interception for them in that one. They have scored 344 points in their 11 games this season averaging 31.3 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 271 points against them allowing 24.6 PPG. Their offense is averaging 443.3 YPG while their defense is allowing 376.4 YPG.
Missouri vs Arkansas Prediction
Missouri is coming into this game as a 14.5 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Missouri has been playing a lot better in their recent games with 3 wins in their last 4 and they just got a win that made them become bowl eligible but another win in this game can pretty much secure that bowl game. Arkansas has been playing well in their recent games but they have not really blown out any of their conference opponents recently, getting their wins by about a touchdown or less in their last 4. They are also coming off of a big game against Alabama that they kept close and only lost by 7 points so this could be a let down game for them since they really have nothing left to play for other than the bowl game they will be in. The best bet to place in this game is on Missouri to cover the spread as they have been playing well and will be hungry for another win to secure their place in a bowl game.
Missouri Arkansas Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Friday, November 26, 2021 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Arkansas 31 Missouri 28.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Missouri Tigers: 22-34 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. 179-167 ATS in all games. 85-78 ATS as an underdog. 74-70 ATS in road games. 121-117 ATS against conference opponents.
Arkansas Razorbacks: 14-9 O/U as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. 136-127 O/U in all games. 29-24 O/U when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 44-39 O/U as a home favorite. 70-67 O/U in home games. 102-89 O/U against conference opponents.
Key Injuries
Missouri Tigers: S. Robinson (DB) Ques Fri - Undisclosed injury. I. Burdine (DB) Ques Fri - Undisclosed injury. C. Shearin (DB) Ques Fri - Undisclosed injury.
Arkansas Razorbacks: D. Gerald (DL) out for season - Leg injury.
Notable Quotes
"I'm proud of Connor. He takes a lot of criticism, he takes a lot of boos, but when we needed him, he stepped up." - Eli Drinkwitz on his quarterback’s performance in their win over Florida in their last game.
"We felt like we had a great chance to win the game and obviously we did. We just didn't get enough or didn't get a stop. We certainly didn't play a perfect game." - Head coach Sam Pittman on his team’s loss to Alabama in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Missouri Tigers
WR Dove, Tauskie
WR Keke Chism
WR Banister, Barrett
TE Parker Jr., Daniel
QB Bazelak, Connor
RB Badie, Tyler
Arkansas Razorbacks
WR Warren Thompson
WR Tyson Morris
WR Burks, Treylon
TE Kern, Blake
QB Jefferson, KJ
RB Johnson, Dominique
Statistical Leaders
Missouri Tigers
Passing: C. Bazelak (2475)
Rushing: T. Badie (1393)
Receiving: T. Dove (542)
Touchdowns: T. Badie (13)
Arkansas Razorbacks
Passing: K. Jefferson (2316)
Rushing: T. Smith (555)
Receiving: T. Burks (994)
Touchdowns: T. Burks (10)
Coaches:
Missouri Tigers: Eli Drinkwitz (2nd season)
Arkansas Razorbacks: Sam Pittman (2nd season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
