Missouri State Bears vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 12/18/2025

Game Time: 9:00 pm ET, Thursday, December 18, 2025

Venue:  Ford Center at The Star, Frisco, TX

Where to Watch:  ESPN2

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Missouri State +2.5, Arkansas State -2.5; Over/Under:  56.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Missouri State +2.5, Arkansas State -2.5; Over/Under:  56.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Missouri State +2.5, Arkansas State -2.5; Over/Under:  56.5 points

Missouri State Bears:  7-5 (5-3) (5th place, C-USA)

Arkansas State Red Wolves:  6-6 (5-3) (4th place, Sun Belt West)

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Missouri State Bears:  lost their last game at home against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 42-30.

Arkansas State Red Wolves:  won their last game on the road against the Appalachian State Mountaineers 30-29.

Missouri State is entering this game with a 7-5 record overall and they have a 5-3 record in their conference games too. They are 3-3 in their home games, 4-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, and they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against LA Tech 42-30. Jacob Clark was the starting QB and he completed 17/31 passes for 294 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Shomari Lawrence led the team in rushing yards with 84 and 1 TD. Jeron Askren led the receivers with 75 receiving yards on 1 reception and 1 TD. Christian Ford led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Arkansas State is entering this game with a 6-6 record overall and they have a 5-3 record in their conference games too. They are 3-3 in their home games, 3-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against Appalachian State 30-29. Jaylen Raynor was the starting QB and he completed 32/47 passes for 363 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Kenyon Clay led the team in rushing yards with 52 and 1 TD. Chauncy Cobb led the receivers with 117 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Aaron Alexander led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 8 assisted tackles while Demarcus Hendricks and Cody Sigler each led the defense in sacks with 0.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Missouri State listed as a 2.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Missouri State has looked good in their games this season with their 7-5 record overall and their 5-3 conference record which had them right in the middle of the Conference USA. They haven't played in a neutral site game this season so this will be their first, playing in the Xbox Bowl. Meanwhile, Arkansas State looked good in their games this season with their 6-6 record overall and their 5-3 conference record which had them right in the middle of their division in the Sun Belt. They haven't played a game at a neutral site this season either. Arkansas State played in the stronger conference this season, but they have been really up and down each week. They went into their final game of the regular season needing to win to become bowl eligible and they did, but they barely beat one of the worst teams in their own conference. They are off a 30-29 win over App State just to keep their bowl streak alive. Missouri State is playing in their first ever bowl game since this is also their inaugural season in FBS, and they are going to be motivated to get a bowl win to end the year. They are off a bad loss in their last one, losing 42-30 at home against LA Tech in their last one, but they also went into that game with nothing left to play for since they weren't competing for the conference and were already bowl eligible. They will be looking to get that bad taste out of their mouth though and end the season with a positive after already having a big success of an inaugural year. The best way to place a bet here is on Missouri State to cover the spread in this game. 

Missouri State Arkansas State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Thursday, December 18, 2025 (9:00 pm ET start time) is Missouri State 33 Arkansas State 30.

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Missouri State Bears: 13-7 ATS in non-conference games. 16-7 ATS in games played on turf. 4-1 UNDER after playing a game at home. 3-0 UNDER versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.75 rushing yards/carry or more.

Arkansas State Red Wolves: 4-7 ATS as a favorite. 9-15 ATS at home when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest. 46-22 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record. 37-21 UNDER versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play or more.

Missouri State Bears:  F. Williams (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Williams (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. G. Tchio (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Loaiza (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. G. Cutchlow (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. N. Barrett (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Kohl (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. H. Lillibridge (OG) Out - Undisclosed. G. Clinton (TE) Out - Leg.

Arkansas State Red Wolves:  Q. Wright (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Smith (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. McConico (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Little (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Bush (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Cross (RB) Out - Knee.

"Today is a great day for Missouri State football. After a strong first season in CUSA, we're adding 16 talented young men who fit our culture and our vision. As a staff, we believe these Bears will help elevate and drive this program forward." - Ryan Beard on signing day.

"We look forward to postseason play, and are extremely proud of being one of just 17 Group of Six programs to play in three or more consecutive bowl games. Frisco is a great destination and will be a new experience for our staff, players and fans. We're very excited for this opportunity and the challenges that present themselves in playing a very good opponent in Missouri State." - Butch Jones on his team playing in the Xbox Bowl.

WR Cope, Makai

WR Robinson, Jmariyae

WR Luke, Dash

TE Askren, Jeron

QB Clark, Jacob

RB Lawrence, Shomari

FB Lair, Connor

WR Rucker, Corey

WR Summers, Hunter

WR Cobb, Chauncy

TE Little, Tyler

QB Raynor, Jaylen

RB Cross, Ja'Quez

Passing: Jacob Clark (2,895)

Rushing: Shomari Lawrence (964)

Receiving: Jmariyae Robinson (536)

Touchdowns: Shomari Lawrence (7)

Passing: Jaylen Raynor (3,073)

Rushing: Devin Spencer (523)

Receiving: Corey Rucker (866)

Touchdowns: Jaylen Raynor (7)

Coaches:

Missouri State Bears: Ryan Beard (1st season)

Arkansas State Red Wolves: Butch Jones (5th season)