Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Vanderbilt Commodores Game Preview and Prediction - 10/23/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 4:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 23, 2021
Venue:  Vanderbilt Stadium, Nashville, TN
Where to Watch:  SEC Network

 

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Mississippi State -20.5 Vandy +20.5; Over/Under:  51 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Mississippi State -20.5 Vandy +20.5; Over/Under:  51 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Mississippi State -20.5 Vandy +20.5; Over/Under:  51.5 points
 

Season Record

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  3-3 (6th place, SEC West)
Vanderbilt Commodores:  2-5 (7th place, SEC East)
 
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Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Vanderbilt Commodores Preview and Analysis

 
Recent Form
Mississippi State Bulldogs:  lost at home on Oct. 16 against the Alabama Crimson Tide 49-9.
Vanderbilt Commodores:  lost on the road on Oct. 16 against the South Carolina Gamecocks 21-20.
 
 
 

Mississippi State Bulldogs Analysis

Mississippi State is coming into this SEC matchup with a 3-3 record overall and they are 1-1 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 4th conference matchup of the year and they are not in a good position right now with a 1-2 record in their conference games this season. Their 1 win came against the Texas A&M Aggies while their 2 losses came against the LSU Tigers and against Alabama in their last game. Will Rogers played alright but he also struggled a lot in that game as he completed 35/55 passes for 300 yards, zero touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. Dillon Johnson led the team in rushing with 24 yards on 7 carries but they did not really have much of a running game in that one. Jaden Walley led the team in receiving with 64 yards on 6 receptions while Makai Polk and Jo'quavious Marks both led the team in receptions with 7 each combining for less than 100 yards between the 2 of them in that game. Nathaniel Watson led the defense in that one with 5 solo tackles, 11 assisted ones, and 1 sack. He and Aaron Brule recorded the only sacks in the game with 1 each while no one on the defense was able to come up with an interception. They have scored 148 points in their first 6 games averaging 24.7 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 174 points against them allowing 29 PPG. Their offense is averaging 407 YPG while their defense is allowing 355.8 YPG.
 
 

Vanderbilt Commodores Analysis

Vandy is coming into this college football game with a 2-5 record overall and they are 1-3 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be the 4th conference matchup on their schedule this year and they are off to a very bad start with a 0-3 record in their conference games this season. Their 3 losses came against the Georgia Bulldogs, the Florida Gators, and against South Carolina in their last game. That was a very close game where they caught up throughout the course of the game just to give up a TD in the 4th quarter and lose it by 1. That loss put them on a 2 game losing streak coming into this one. Mike Wright was alright in that game as he completed 11/21 passes for 206 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Rocko Griffin led the team in rushing with 57 yards and 1 touchdown on 18 carries while Wright also had 41 rushing yards on 15 carries but they did not really have much of a running game in that one. Will Sheppard had a very nice day as he led the receivers with 120 yards and 1 touchdown on 3 receptions. Anfernee Orji led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles, 1 assisted one and 1 sack. That was the only sack recorded for the defense in that game. Ethan Barr and Dashaun Jerkins both came away with 1 interception each in that one. They have scored 100 points in their 7 games this season averaging 14.3 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 238 points against them allowing 34 PPG. The Commodores offense is averaging 310.9 YPG while their defense is allowing 450.3 YPG.
 

 

Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt Prediction

The total is set at 51 points with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Both of these teams lack a lot of offense in their games. Mississippi State is only averaging around 24 points per game while Vandy is scoring roughly 2 TDs per game. Vandy usually scores even less against good teams in their conference and have had that number padded a bit thanks to their non-conference matchups against teams worse than them. Mississippi State does not have a strong offense either so the best bet to place in this game is on the under as it will be a low scoring one.
 
Mississippi State Vanderbilt Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 23, 2021 (4:00 pm ET start time) is Mississippi State 24 Vanderbilt 10.
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NCAAF Betting Trends

 
Mississippi State Bulldogs: 11-22 O/U as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. 107-148 O/U in all games. 23-50 O/U when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 47-64 O/U as a favorite. 16-24 O/U as a road favorite. 49-61 O/U in road games. 69-110 O/U against conference opponents.
Vanderbilt Commodores: 89-119 O/U in all games. 64-87 O/U as an underdog. 30-39 O/U as a home underdog. 48-64 O/U in home games. 60-87 O/U against conference opponents.
 

Key Injuries

 
Mississippi State Bulldogs:  T. Wilson (WR) Ques Sat - Personal. W. Rogers (QB) Ques Sat - Shoulder injury.
Vanderbilt Commodores:  M. Warden (OL) Ques Sat - Ankle injury. K. Seals (QB) Ques Sat - Finger injury. R. Davis (RB) out for season - Toe injury.
 

Players to Watch

 
Mississippi State Bulldogs: Jaden Walley is one player to watch in this FBS contest. He leads his team in touchdowns scored this season and he is coming off of a game where he led the team in receiving yards. He is a good target for them and has been able to get in the end zone more than anyone on this offense this year so look for them to get the ball in his hands for some scores in this game.
 
Vanderbilt Commodores: Will Sheppard is one player to watch here. He leads his team in receiving yards and in touchdowns scored this season. He is coming off of a nice game where he led the team in receiving and had over 100 yards in that game. He is their 1 weapon on an offense that does not have many so look for him to get a lot of looks in this game as they look to him on their scoring plays.
 

Notable Quotes

 
“I think he’s really a good player. I think that he’s kind of made a move there, and I think those three are pretty interchangeable. Really, I expect all three of them to play.” - Mike Leach on moving J.J. Jernighan up the depth chart.
 
 
"But there will be points we'll build on for sure." - Clark Lea on his team hurting after a 1 point loss in their last game.
 
 

Starting Lineups

 
Mississippi State Bulldogs
WR Heath, Malik 
WR Polk, Makai 
WR Calvin, Jamire 
WR Austin Williams 
QB Rogers, Will 
RB Jernighan, J.J. 
 
Vanderbilt Commodores
WR Sheppard, Will 
WR Chris Pierce Jr.
WR Cam Johnson
TE Bresnahan, Ben  
QB Ken Seals
RB Griffin, Rocko  
 

Statistical Leaders

 
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Passing: W. Rogers (2162)
Rushing: D. Johnson (173)
Receiving: M. Polk (489)
Touchdowns: J. Walley (4)
Sacks: R. Charlton (2)
Tackles: E. Forbes (22)
 
Vanderbilt Commodores
Passing: K. Seals (1086)
Rushing: R. Griffin (284)
Receiving: W. Sheppard (453)
Touchdowns: W. Sheppard (3)
Sacks: J. Mahoney (1)
Tackles: A. Orji (32)
 
Coaches:
Mississippi State Bulldogs: Mike Leach (2nd season)
Vanderbilt Commodores: Clark Lea (1st season)
 

Weather Forecast

74 degrees F mostly sunny, 65% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 6 mph wind speeds S.


Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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