Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/28/2024

Game Time: 4:15 pm ET, Saturday, September 28, 2024

Venue:  Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX

Where to Watch:  SEC Network

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  MS State +38.5, Texas -38.5; Over/Under:  62.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  MS State +38.5, Texas -38.5; Over/Under:  62.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  MS State +38.5, Texas -38.5; Over/Under:  62.5 points

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  1-3 (0-1) (16th place, SEC)

Texas Longhorns:  4-0 (0-0) (10th place, SEC)

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Mississippi State Bulldogs:  lost their last game at home against the Florida Gators 45-28.

Texas Longhorns:  won their last game at home against the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 51-3.

Mississippi State is entering this game with a 1-3 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 1-2 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Florida 45-28. Blake Shapen was the starting QB and he completed 13/21 passes for 140 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions before getting replaced by Michael Van Buren Jr. who completed 7/13 passes for 100 yards. Johnnie Daniels led the team in rushing yards with 77 and 1 TD. Mario Craver led the receivers with 62 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Brylan Lanier led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Texas is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against LA-Monroe 51-3. Arch Manning was the starting QB and he completed 15/29 passes for 258 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Jaydon Blue led the team in rushing yards with 124 and 3 TDs. Isaiah Bond led the receivers with 75 receiving yards on 2 receptions. Liona Lefau led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Liona Lefau and Anthony Hill Jr. each led the defense in sacks with 1. Anthony Hill Jr. and Jay'Vion Cole each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Texas listed as a 38.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Texas has looked really good in their games this season with their 4-0 record overall. This is going to be their first conference game of the season, but they are the highest ranked team in college football right now and they have been blowing out a lot of their opponents at home. They have also been tested this season with a road win against Michigan by double digits. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has looked terrible in their games this season with their 1-3 record overall and their 0-1 conference record. They just took back-to-back beatings at home, getting blown out by Florida last week and getting blown out by Toledo the week before, and now they have their first conference road game of the season against the best team in the land. Mississippi State hasn't really shown much to be encouraged about in their first few games while Texas has been making a case for themselves to win the National Championship whether it be with Quinn Ewers or Arch Manning starting. Mississippi State isn't going to be able to do much on offense against this Texas defense and Texas will eventually pull away like they have in all of their home games this season. The best way to place a bet here is on Texas to cover the spread in this game. 

Mississippi State Texas Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 28, 2024 (4:15 pm ET start time) is Texas 52 MS State 7.

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Mississippi State Bulldogs: 2-10 ATS as an underdog. 4-12 ATS against conference opponents. 2-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses. 5-0 OVER off a home loss. 6-0 OVER after allowing 37 points or more last game. 10-2 OVER after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses. 

Texas Longhorns: 11-4 ATS in home lined games. 7-2 ATS off a home win by 17 points or more. 9-2 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 6-3 OVER off a home win by 17 points or more. 9-5 OVER after playing a game at home. 8-4 1H OVER when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  S. Davis (RB) Out - Knee. J. Harrell (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed.

Texas Longhorns:  T. Owens (QB) Out - Lower Body. C. Clark (RB) Out - Achilles. C. Baxter (RB) Out - Knee.

“We’ve got a choice to make, and the choice is up to each and every one of us. We’re going to wake up in the morning, the sun’s going to come up, we’re going to have breath in our body and we’re going to be thankful for the opportunity. There will be great relief, great energy and great confidence in how the guys are getting coached. I think our guys will respond.” - Jeff Lebby after his team’s loss against Florida in their last game. 

"Quinn practiced today. I would say if, again, if I had to put a report out, he'd be questionable for Saturday." - Steve Sarkisian on the status of Quinn Ewers for this upcoming game against MS State. 

WR Mosley, Jordan

WR Hudson, Trent

WR Coleman, Kevin

TE Traore, Seydou

QB Shapen, Blake

RB Lee, Keyvone 

WR Bond, Isaiah

WR Golden, Matthew

WR Moore Jr., DeAndre 

TE Helm, Gunnar 

QB Manning, Arch

RB Blue, Jaydon

Passing: B. Shapen (974)

Rushing: J. Daniels (158)

Receiving: K. Coleman (287)

Touchdowns: K. Coleman (3)

Passing: Q. Ewers (691)

Rushing: J. Gibson (210)

Receiving: I. Bond (290)

Touchdowns: J. Blue (4)

Coaches:

Mississippi State Bulldogs: Jeff Lebby (1st season)

Texas Longhorns: Steve Sarkisian (4th season)