by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Thursday, Sep 30, 2021
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 2, 2021
Venue: Kyle Field, College Station, TX
Where to Watch: SEC Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Mississippi State +7, Texas A&M -7; Over/Under: 46 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Mississippi State +7, Texas A&M -7; Over/Under: 45.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Mississippi State NL, Texas A&M NL; Over/Under: NL points
Season Record
Mississippi State Bulldogs: 2-2 (7th place, SEC West)
Texas A&M Aggies: 3-1 (6th place, SEC West)
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Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Texas A&M Aggies Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Mississippi State Bulldogs: lost at home on September 25 against the LSU Tigers 28-25.
Texas A&M Aggies: lost on the road on Sep. 25 against the Arkansas Razorbacks 20-10.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Analysis
Mississippi State is coming into this college football game with a 2-2 record overall and they are 0-1 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 2nd conference game of the season and they are 0-1 in conference games this year after last week. They started the year off strong with wins over the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and the North Carolina State Wolfpack but they let that get away from them recently losing 2 games straight to the Memphis Tigers and to LSU in their last game. Will Rogers had a good game in their last one as he completed 47/62 passes for 371 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. They did not get much of a run game going in that one as Dillon Johnson led the team in rushing with 51 yards on 8 carries. Makai Polk led the team in receiving with 78 yards and 1 touchdown while Jo'quavious Marks had 67 yards and 1 TD on 9 receptions. Fred Peters led the defense with 4 solo tackles and 5 assisted ones. Randy Charlton and Aaron Odom led the defense in sacks with 1 each but it was Emmanuel Forbes who came away with the 1 interception for them in that game. They have scored 113 points in their first 4 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 103 points against them. The Mississippi State offense is averaging 426.3 YPG while their defense is allowing 323.8 YPG.
Texas A&M Aggies Analysis
Texas A&M is coming into this game with a 3-1 record overall and they are 2-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 2nd conference matchup of the season and they are 0-1 in their conference games this year after last week. They started their season with 3 straight wins against the Kent State Golden Flashes, the Colorado Buffaloes, and the New Mexico Lobos but they were handed their first loss in their last game by the Arkansas Razorbacks. Zach Calzada struggled in that game as he completed 20/36 passes for 151 yards and 1 interception. Isaiah Spiller led the team in rushing with 95 yards and 1 touchdown on 12 carries but he was about as much as they could do in the run game in that one. Their receiving corps had a very quiet day as Ainias Smith led the team in receiving with 35 yards on 2 receptions. Aaron Hansford and Antonio Johnson Jr. both led the defense with 4 solo tackles and 4 assisted ones each. Hansford also had 1 sack in that game as well as Michael Clemons but no one on the defense came away with an interception. They have scored 95 points in their first 4 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 37 points against them. Their offense is averaging 396.5 YPG while their defense is allowing 291.5 YPG.
Mississippi State vs Texas A&M Prediction
Mississippi State has moved the ball well on offense this year as they have scored at least 24 points in each of their games this year. Their defense has not been that great either as they have allowed their opponents to score 28 points against them in 3 of their 4 games this season. Texas A&M has not scored a lot of points against tough teams this season but they should be able to score on this Mississippi State defense. The best bet to make in this game is on the over as the total is very low here and both teams should score quite a few points.
Mississippi State Texas A&M Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 2, 2021 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Texas A&M 34 Mississippi State 27.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Mississippi State Bulldogs: 106-147 O/U in all games. 68-109 O/U against conference opponents.
Texas A&M Aggies: 168-179 ATS in all games. 106-124 ATS against conference opponents.
Key Injuries
Mississippi State Bulldogs: None.
Texas A&M Aggies: L. Matthews (OL) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. C. Chapman 9WR) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. L. Robinson (OL) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury.
Players to Watch
Mississippi State Bulldogs: Will Rogers is one player to watch in this game. It will be up to him to lead this offense to victory and bounce back after a poor performance in their last game. Look for him to make some big plays and smart throws in this game to give his team a chance here.
Texas A&M Aggies: Zach Calzada is one player to watch here. He has not been playing the best and he will have to step up his game here if they want to start winning games and make a run for the conference title. Look for him to lead his offense in this game and start scoring some points.
Notable Quotes
"You never win a game in the first 10, 15 minutes, but you can sure put yourself behind the 8-ball. That's what we did. We gave up big plays, big drives." - Head coach Jimbo Fisher on their loss to Arkansas in their last game.
"I see a team that can make a lot of plays. But I see a team that will take themselves out of drives because they don't have that focus." - Mike Leach on his team’s performance after their loss to LSU in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Mississippi State Bulldogs
WR Heath, Malik
WR Polk, Makai
WR Calvin, Jamire
WR Williams, Austin
QB Rogers, Will
RB Marks, Jo'quavious
Texas A&M Aggies
WR Lane, Chase
WR Chapman, Caleb
WR Smith, Ainias
TE Wydermyer, Jalen
QB Calzada, Zach
RB Spiller, Isaiah
Statistical Leaders
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Passing: W. Rogers (1454)
Rushing: D. Johnson (130)
Receiving: M. Polk (304)
Touchdowns: J. Walley (3)
Sacks: R. Charlton (2)
Tackles: E. Forbes (15)
Texas A&M Aggies
Passing: Z. Calzada (609)
Rushing: I. Spiller (345)
Receiving: A. Smith (170)
Touchdowns: D. Achane (2)
Sacks: D. Leal (2.5)
Tackles: A. Johnson (20)
Coaches:
Mississippi State Bulldogs: Mike Leach (2nd season)
Texas A&M Aggies: Jimbo Fisher (4th season)
Weather Forecast
83 degrees F thunderstorm, 80% humidity, 90% chance of rain, up to 7 mph wind speeds SE.
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
