Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Florida Gators Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/09/2023

Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Thursday, March 9, 2023

Venue:  Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN

Where to Watch:  SEC Network

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  MS State -3, Florida +3; Over/Under:  129.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  MS State -3, Florida +3; Over/Under:  129.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  MS State -3, Florida +3; Over/Under:  129.5 points

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  20-11 (8-10) (9th place, SEC)

Florida Gators:  16-15 (9-9) (8th place, SEC)

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Mississippi State Bulldogs:  3-2  last 5

Florida Gators:  2-3  last 5

Mississippi State is coming into this game with a 20-11 record overall and they are 4-1 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are also 8-10 in their conference games this season as well. They are entering this game off of a loss against the Vanderbilt Commodores in their last game. Tolu Smith led the team in points in that game with 27 while D. J. Jeffries was next on the team with 17 points. D. J. Jeffries, Cameron Matthews, Tolu Smith, and Shakeel Moore each led the team in assists in that game with 2 while D. J. Jeffries, Cameron Matthews, and Tolu Smith each led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 45.9% from the field, 23.5% from 3-point range, and 57.1% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 66.4 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 60.4 PPG against them. Mississippi State has an ATS record of 16-14-1 this season and their O/U record is 12-19.

Florida is coming into this game with a 16-15 record overall and they are 2-3 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are also 9-9 in their conference schedule this season as well. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with wins coming against the Georgia Bulldogs and the LSU Tigers in their last game. Riley Kugel led the team in points in that game with 21 while Will Richard was next on the team with 18 points. Kyle Lofton led the team in assists in that game with 5 while Will Richard and Alex Fudge each led the team in rebounds with 6. They were 45.9% from the field, 40% from 3-point range, and 65% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 72.1 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 68.6 PPG against them. Florida has an ATS record of 15-16 this season and their O/U record is 15-16.

The current betting odds have Mississippi State listed as a 3 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Mississippi State struggled in the SEC this season with their losing 8-10 conference record but they were still a really good team overall as they had a 20-11 record and are the lower seed in this game entering the SEC Tournament. They also found a lot of success this season in their neutral site games as they went 4-1 in their 5 games on a neutral site while Florida struggled a lot more going 2-3 in theirs. Florida also struggled a lot more in general as they were a worse team all season with a 16-15 record overall, barely scraping over .500 by the end of the season, but they still come in as the higher seed here due to a slightly better conference record of 9-9. Florida ended their season with some momentum too winning 2 games in a row now, but those wins also came against LSU and Georgia who are 2 of the worst teams in the SEC and before that they weren't playing well at all. Mississippi State lost their final game of the season but were playing great before that and they will be eager to bounce back and start their SEC Tournament run with a big win here. The best way to place a bet here is on Mississippi State to cover the spread in this game. 

Mississippi State Florida Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Thursday, March 9, 2023 (1:00 pm ET start time) is MS State 74 Florida 66.

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Mississippi State Bulldogs: 14-4 ATS off a road loss. 13-4 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival. 17-6 UNDER as a favorite. 15-7 UNDER after playing a game as favorite.

Florida Gators: 5-11 ATS in all neutral court games. 3-11 ATS after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games. 9-4 UNDER off 2 straight wins against conference rivals.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  None.

Florida Gators:  C. Castleton (F) out for season - Hand.

“I’ve made it known many times what a fan I am of Tolu Smith as a human being. He’s just quality. I’m happy for him. Obviously, he’s a great player and he’s very deserving of all of the awards and accolades that he’s receiving, but when you’ve watched and witnessed someone who works so hard and his craft and spends so much time on his game that gets rewarded like that, it just makes you feel good.” - Chris Jans on Tolu Smith and how hard he has been working this season.

“Coachable enough to win two in a row to finish, which was huge, I thought, for us. We knew it was going to take a little bit of time without Colin for other guys to get comfortable. And as we talked about, it's one thing to change some guys roles, but when you lose Colin, who was the focal point really on both ends of the floor, now 2 through 13, everybody's job changes because everybody has to step up and take on more responsibility. It took us a little bit to get comfortable with that. We didn't guard well at all for the first three games without Colin. And I feel like the last couple of games we've kind of figured out a little bit better how to survive without him. We've driven that effective field goal percentage defense back down to where we want it to be. And you know hopefully those wins give us continued confidence going into Nashville on Thursday.” - Todd Golden on how his players responded to reinventing the team.

D. Davis 

D. Jeffries 

C. Matthews 

E. Reed 

T. Smith

T. Bonham 

C. Castleton 

A. Fudge 

K. Lofton 

W. Richard

PPG: T. Smith (15.4)

APG: D. Davis (3.4)

Reb/G: T. Smith (8.3)

PPG: C. Castleton (16)

APG: K. Lofton (3.5)

Reb/G: C. Castleton (7.7)

Coaches:

Mississippi State Bulldogs: Chris Jans (1st season)

Florida Gators: Todd Golden (1st season)