Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators Prediction & Game Preview - 1/19/2022

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

Venue: Exactech Arena at Stephen C. O'Connell Center, Gainesville, FL

Where to watch: SECN

DraftKings: Mississippi State -4

BetMGM: Mississippi State -4.5

Caesars: Mississippi State -4.5

Mississippi State: 12-4 (3-1 SEC)

Florida: 10-6 (1-3 SEC)

I’m liking the Mississippi State Bulldogs to keep this momentum rolling against the struggling Florida Gators on Wednesday in Gainesville.

Part of that reasoning is momentum, but the other is not believing in the home team. The Gators have lost three of four, but ended a three-game losing streak Saturday with a 71-63 win against a just-as-struggling South Carolina team.

There’s no shame in Florida losing to Alabama, Auburn and LSU in a week’s span, but that shows the Gators are not where they should be at this moment. They haven’t been a good shooting team (43.1 percent) but have relied on their defense for the majority of this season.

That needs to change at some point when facing a team like Mississippi State that is averaging close to 76 points a game while holding teams to just below 65 points per game.

The Bulldogs’ climb to being a SEC threat has much to do with their depth; they have four players averaging double figures in scoring while playing all 16 games. That’s led by Iverson Molinar, who averages almost 18 points and 4.4 assists per game.

Molinar led Mississippi State with 24 points and six rebounds, while Garrison Brooks had 16 points and 10 rebounds. Second-leading scorer Tolu Smith returned for his first game since Dec. 29, but he fouled out after 20 minutes and had six points.

Smith would be included in that group of players averaging double figures if he wasn’t hurt; he dealt with a fractured pinky toe that kept him out a few weeks, and he’s been trying to get back to form. Smith averages 12.8 points and 7.2 rebounds per game and is an important part of MSU’s interior presence. The fact the Bulldogs have been able to be as successful without one of their best post players is a testament to how deep this conference is.

The Gators are opening as 4-point favorites at some books, but the Bulldogs have fared well when they’re getting points, going 15-10 against the spread as a road dog or pick over the past three seasons. MSU is also 24-18 ATS against conference opponents the past three seasons with the over going 4-0 this season.

Florida, meanwhile, is just 13-18 ATS in their last 31 as a home favorite and just 17-23 in conference play.

Give me Mississippi State to keep things rolling and leave with another solid win. Mississippi State by 10

Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in its last six Wednesday games.

Mississippi State is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games against a team with a winning home record.

The over is 5-1 in Florida's last six following an ATS win.

The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

PG: Shakeel Moore

SG: Iverson Molinar
SF: D.J. Jeffries
PF: Cameron Matthews
C: Garrison Brooks

PG: Tyree Appleby

SG: Myreon Jones
SF: Anthony Duruji
PF: Phlandrous Fleming, Jr.
C: Colin Castleton