Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Arkansas Razorbacks Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 11/06/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 4:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 6, 2021
Venue:  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
Where to Watch:  SEC Network

 

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Mississippi State +5.5, Arkansas -5.5; Over/Under:  56.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Mississippi State +5, Arkansas -5; Over/Under:  56 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Mississippi State +5.5, Arkansas -5.5; Over/Under:  55.5 points
 

Season Record

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  5-3 (5th place, SEC West)
Arkansas Razorbacks:  5-3 (7th place, SEC West)
 
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Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Arkansas Razorbacks Preview and Analysis

 
Recent Form
Mississippi State Bulldogs:  won at home on Oct. 30 against the Kentucky Wildcats 31-17.
Arkansas Razorbacks:  won at home on Oct. 23 against the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions 45-3.
 
 
 

Mississippi State Bulldogs Analysis

Mississippi State is coming into this college football game with a 5-3 record overall and they are 2-1 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 6th conference matchup of the year and they are not in the best position right now with a 3-2 record in their conference games this season. They have won 3 of their last 4 games and are coming into this one on a 2 game winning streak after a win in their last game. Will Rogers played well in that game as he completed 36/39 passes for 344 yards and 1 touchdown. Jo'quavious Marks led the team in rushing with 58 yards and 1 touchdown while Dillon Johnson ran in the other 2 touchdowns on the ground. Jaden Walley led the receivers with 95 yards on 6 receptions while Marks led the team in receptions with 9 for 57 receiving yards on top of his rushing yards. Jett Johnson led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 4 assisted ones while Emmanuel Forbes was right behind with 5 solo tackles and 1 assisted one. No one on the defense recorded a sack in that game but Jalen Green, Shawn Preston Jr, and Cameron Young all came away with 1 interception each in that one. They have scored 224 points in their 8 games this season averaging 28 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 197 points against them allowing 24.6 PPG. Their offense is averaging 425.3 YPG while their defense is allowing 313.3 YPG.
 
 

Arkansas Razorbacks Analysis

Arkansas is coming into this game with a 5-3 record overall and they are 4-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be the 5th conference matchup on their schedule this year and they are out of the running with a 1-3 record in their conference games this season. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games and are coming into this one off of a win that snapped a 3 game losing streak that they were on but that win came against an FCS team in their last game. KJ Jefferson played great in that game as he completed 10/17 passes for 194 yards and 4 touchdowns. Dominique Johnson led the team in rushing with 91 yards on 6 carries while Treylon Burks ran in the only touchdown on the ground for them. Burks also led the receivers with 89 yards and 2 touchdowns on 4 receptions while De'Vion Warren had 51 yards on 3 receptions. Ketron Jackson Jr. and Blake Kern both caught the other touchdown passes with 1 each. Hayden Henry led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles. Andrew Parker and Zach Williams both led the defense in sacks in that game with 1 each while Myles Slusher came away with the only interception for them in that one. They have scored 262 points in their 8 games this season averaging 32.8 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 188 points against them allowing 23.5 PPG. Their offense is averaging 465.9 YPG while their defense is allowing 334.4 YPG.
 

 

Mississippi State vs Arkansas Prediction

Arkansas is coming into this game as a 5.5 point favorite with the point total set at 56.5 points with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Both of these teams have been scoring a lot of points of offense this season as 1 team averages over 30 points per game while the under averages just under 30. Mississippi State has shown a lot of improvement in their recent games and even scored 31 points on a good Kentucky defense in their last game. Arkansas has had a good offense all season but their defense started out great but has been allowing a lot of points in their recent games as they have slipped down the ladder in the conference. Both of these teams are going to score a lot of points here so the best bet to place in this game is one the over.
 
Mississippi State Arkansas Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 6, 2021 (4:00 pm ET start time) is Arkansas 38 Mississippi State 35.
Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert football picks today.  And if you enjoyed this Mississippi State Bulldogs Arkansas Razorbacks prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NCAAF predictions and previews.
 

NCAAF Betting Trends

 
Mississippi State Bulldogs: 168-176 ATS in all games. 30-44 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 88-92 ATS as an underdog. 44-48 ATS as a road underdog. 73-77 ATS in road games. 117-121 ATS against conference opponents.
Arkansas Razorbacks: 36-29 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. 173-171 ATS in all games. 53-38 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 64-57 ATS as a home favorite. 99-88 ATS in home games. 127-112 ATS against conference opponents.
 

Key Injuries

 
Mississippi State Bulldogs:  D. Johnson (RB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury.
Arkansas Razorbacks:  D. Gerald (DL) out for season - Leg injury.
 

Notable Quotes

 
"I thought it was huge. Kentucky is really about control … maintaining control is something we've struggled with this year, so those obviously helped." - Mike Leach on his team forcing turnovers in their win over Kentucky in their last game.
 
 
"Mentally, you could see he wasn't playing his type of ball. I think it's time for him to get that shoulder fixed. I think that's best for the kid." - Head coach Sam Pittman on his team’s quarterback after their loss to Auburn.
 
 

Starting Lineups

 
Mississippi State Bulldogs
WR Heath, Malik 
WR Polk, Makai 
WR Calvin, Jamire 
WR Austin Williams 
QB Rogers, Will 
RB Jernighan, J.J. 
 
Arkansas Razorbacks
WR Morris, Tyson 
WR Warren, De'Vion 
WR Burks, Treylon 
TE Kern, Blake 
QB Jefferson, KJ 
RB Smith, Trelon 
 

Statistical Leaders

 
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Passing: W. Rogers (2890)
Rushing: J. Marks (252)
Receiving: M. Polk (603)
Touchdowns: M. Polk (6)
 
Arkansas Razorbacks
Passing: K. Jefferson (1657)
Rushing: T. Smith (459)
Receiving: T. Burks (717)
Touchdowns: T. Burks (7)
 
Coaches:
Mississippi State Bulldogs: Mike Leach (2nd season)
Arkansas Razorbacks: Sam Pittman (2nd season)


Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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