Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/10/2023

Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Friday, March 10, 2023

Venue:  Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  MS State +6.5, Alabama -6.5; Over/Under:  135.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  MS State +6, Alabama -6; Over/Under:  136 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  MS State +6, Alabama -6; Over/Under:  136 points

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  21-11 (8-10) (9th place, SEC)

Alabama Crimson Tide:  26-5 (16-2) (1st place, SEC)

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Mississippi State Bulldogs:  3-2  last 5

Alabama Crimson Tide:  4-1  last 5

Mississippi State is coming into this game with a 21-11 record overall and they are 5-1 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are also 8-10 in their conference games this season as well. They are entering this game off of a win against the Florida Gators in their last game. Tolu Smith led the team in points in that game with 28 while Shakeel Moore was next on the team with 13 points. Dashawn Davis led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Tolu Smith led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 39.1% from the field, 14.3% from 3-point range, and 60.7% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 66.4 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 60.4 PPG against them. Mississippi State has an ATS record of 16-15-1 this season and their O/U record is 13-19.

Alabama is coming into this game with a 26-5 record overall and they are 2-2 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are also 16-2 in their conference schedule this season as well. They are entering this game off of a loss against the Texas A&M Aggies in their last game. Brandon Miller led the team in points in that game with 19 while Jahvon Quinerly was next on the team with 12 points. Jahvon Quinerly led the team in assists in that game with 3 while Brandon Miller led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 33.8% from the field, 19.4% from 3-point range, and 90.9% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 82.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 69.5 PPG against them. Alabama has an ATS record of 16-14-1 this season and their O/U record is 15-15-1.

The current betting odds have Alabama listed as a 6.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Alabama enters this SEC Tournament as the higher seed in this game but they are also ranked as one of the best teams in the country this season, ranked inside the top 5. They are 26-5 overall this season and they were the best team in the SEC with their 16-2 conference record. Mississippi State also put together a good season with their 21-11 record overall but they also struggled a lot more in the SEC with their losing 8-10 conference record. They managed to beat Florida by 1 point in OT in the 1st round of this tournament but now they have the disadvantage of being on a back-to-back here and they were not playing very well to end the regular season either. Alabama wasn't playing great in their final games either but they were still finding ways to win and will be looking to use this tournament as a way to gain a lot of momentum going into the NCAA Tournament. They also lost their last game of the season which snapped a big win streak and they will be looking to bounce back in a big way here. The best way to place a bet here is on Alabama to cover the spread in this game. 

Mississippi State Alabama Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Friday, March 10, 2023 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Alabama 83 MS State 68.

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Mississippi State Bulldogs: 7-12 ATS in all neutral court games. 5-16 ATS after playing 4 consecutive games as favorite. 32-19 OVER in a neutral court game where the total is 130 to 139.5.

Alabama Crimson Tide: 26-17 ATS after 1 or more consecutive unders. 26-18 ATS in conference tournament games. 29-19 OVER after a game where they failed to cover the spread.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  None.

Alabama Crimson Tide:  None.

“I’ve made it known many times what a fan I am of Tolu Smith as a human being. He’s just quality. I’m happy for him. Obviously, he’s a great player and he’s very deserving of all of the awards and accolades that he’s receiving, but when you’ve watched and witnessed someone who works so hard and his craft and spends so much time on his game that gets rewarded like that, it just makes you feel good.” - Chris Jans on Tolu Smith and how hard he has been working this season.

"We obviously haven't shot the ball well. As a staff over the last week — really before we got to Monday — we looked at every single one of our shooters, every 3-point attempt they've taken on the year and we analyzed, like, every one. What are they doing on makes vs misses? There's not any fundamental flaws necessarily that we have to go in and fix on a shot — you really only do that in the offseason — but there are certain things with different ones." - Nate Oats on his team’s shooting troubles coming into this SEC Tournament.

D. Davis 

D. Jeffries 

C. Matthews 

E. Reed 

T. Smith

C. Bediako 

J. Bradley 

N. Clowney 

B. Miller 

M. Sears

PPG: T. Smith (15.4)

APG: D. Davis (3.4)

Reb/G: T. Smith (8.3)

PPG: B. Miller (19.6)

APG: J. Quinerly (3.7)

Reb/G: N. Clowney (8.2)

Coaches:

Mississippi State Bulldogs: Chris Jans (1st season)

Alabama Crimson Tide: Nate Oats (4th season)