Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 02/25/2025

Game Time: 9:00 pm ET, Tuesday, February 25, 2025

Venue:  Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL

Where to Watch:  ESPN2

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  MS State +8.5, Alabama -8.5; Over/Under:  171.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  MS State +8.5, Alabama -8.5; Over/Under:  171.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  MS State +8.5, Alabama -8.5; Over/Under:  171.5 points

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  19-8 (7-7) (8th place, SEC)

Alabama Crimson Tide:  22-5 (11-3) (3rd place, SEC)

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Mississippi State Bulldogs:  3-2  last 5

Alabama Crimson Tide:  3-2  last 5

Mississippi State is entering this game with a 19-8 record overall, a 7-7 record in conference games, and they are 6-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Oklahoma Sooners in their last game. Josh Hubbard led the team in points per game in that game with 19 while KeShawn Murphy was next on the team with 16. Josh Hubbard led the team in assists with 5 in that game while RJ Melendez led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 39.7% from the field, 32.3% from 3-point range, and 86.4% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 79.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 71.9 PPG against them. Mississippi State has an ATS record of 12-15 this season and their O/U record is 15-12.

Alabama is entering this game with a 22-5 record overall, an 11-3 conference record, and they are 11-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Kentucky Wildcats in their last game. Mark Sears led the team in points in that game with 30 while Aden Holloway was next on the team with 19. Mark Sears led the team in assists with 4 in that game while Clifford Omoruyi led the team in rebounds with 15. They were 52.5% from the field, 35.5% from 3-point range, and 84% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 90.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 80.4 PPG against them. Alabama has an ATS record of 15-12 this season and their O/U record is 14-12-1.

The current betting odds have Alabama listed as an 8.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Alabama has looked great in their games this season with their 22-5 record overall and their 11-3 conference record which has them right near the top of the SEC. They are ranked like one of the best teams in the nation and they have looked great on their home court this season with their 11-2 home record. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has looked good in their games this season with their 19-8 record overall, but their 7-7 conference record has them right in the middle of the SEC. They have been a good road team this year with their 6-3 road record, but they have struggled when they have had to face top opponents in the SEC. They are 3-2 in their last 5 games and just when they were starting to build some momentum with wins over Ole Miss and Texas A&M, they took a bad loss to Oklahoma in their last one. Alabama is also 3-2 in their last 5 games but their 2 losses were against Auburn and Missouri who have been very strong in the conference this year. Alabama did bounce back in their last one though, beating Kentucky at home by double digits, and now they will be looking to get back on track by stringing wins together against 2 ranked opponents. Mississippi State has been good this season, but they don't have the elite talent that teams like Alabama have on their side, and it will show in this game. The best way to place a bet here is on Alabama to cover the spread in this game. 

Mississippi State Alabama Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Tuesday, February 25, 2025 (9:00 pm ET start time) is Alabama 84 Mississippi State 70.

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Mississippi State Bulldogs: 3-6 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. 5-16 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game. 0-8 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game. 10-5 OVER as a road underdog or pick. 9-3 OVER off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite.

Alabama Crimson Tide: 28-17 ATS as a home favorite or pick. 29-19 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). 11-5 ATS versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season. 11-6 OVER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. 14-4 OVER versus up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  K. Clary (G) Out - Leg.

Alabama Crimson Tide:  D. Reid (F) Questionable - Undisclosed. H. Mallette (G) Questionable - Knee. L. Wrightsell (G) Out - Achilles. N. Cunningham (F) Out - Redshirt.

“I thought maybe we were on our way to being a great team and having this great momentum, and we definitely took a step backwards today.” - Chris Jans after his team’s loss against Oklahoma in their last game. 

“Honestly, Wimp did a really good job here, but I’m guessing the SEC is a lot better now, so there’s a lot more opportunities to get Top 25 wins than he probably had. But when they give you the opportunity and you take advantage of them and try to get it done. We don’t have enough because we had a chance to get two more in the last two games before this and we didn’t come up with them.” - Nate Oats after his team’s win against Kentucky in their last game. 

C. Harris 

J. Hubbard 

C. Matthews 

R. Melendez 

M. Nwoko

G. Nelson 

C. Omoruyi 

L. Philon 

M. Sears 

J. Stevenson

PPG: J. Hubbard (17.9)

APG: C. Matthews (3.8)

Reb/G: K. Murphy (7.5)

PPG: M. Sears (18.9)

APG: M. Sears (4.8)

Reb/G: G. Nelson (7.9)

Coaches:

Mississippi State Bulldogs: Chris Jans (3rd season)

Alabama Crimson Tide: Nate Oats (6th season)