Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 01/25/2023

by Rod Pearson

Game Time: 9:00 pm ET, Wednesday, January 25, 2023
Venue:  Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL
Where to Watch:  SEC Network


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  MS State +13, Alabama -13; Over/Under:  139.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  MS State +13, Alabama -13; Over/Under:  139.5 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  MS State +13, Alabama -13; Over/Under:  139.5 points

Season Record

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  12-7 (1-6) (12th place, SEC)
Alabama Crimson Tide:  17-2 (7-0) (1st place, SEC)

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Recent Form
Mississippi State Bulldogs:  1-4  last 5
Alabama Crimson Tide:  5-0  last 5


Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide Preview and Analysis


Mississippi State is coming into this game with a 12-7 record overall and they are 1-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are also 1-6 in their conference games this season as well. They are entering this game on a 4 game losing streak with losses coming against the Georgia Bulldogs, the Auburn Tigers, the Tennessee Volunteers, and the Florida Gators in their last game. Tolu Smith and Shakeel Moore each led the team in points in that game with 12 while William McNair was next on the team with 10 points. Cameron Matthews, D. J. Jeffries, Dashawn Davis, and William McNair each led the team in assists in that game with 2 while Cameron Matthews and Tolu Smith each led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 39.3% from the field, 23.5% from 3-point range, and 63.6% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 64.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 58.3 PPG against them. Mississippi State has an ATS record of 7-11-1 this season and their O/U record is 5-14.


Alabama is coming into this game with a 17-2 record overall and they are 9-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are also 7-0 in their conference schedule this season as well. They are entering this game on an 8 game winning streak with wins coming against the Jackson State Tigers, the Mississippi State Bulldogs, the Ole Miss Rebels, the Kentucky Wildcats, the Arkansas Razorbacks, the LSU Tigers, the Vanderbilt Commodores, and the Missouri Tigers in their last game. Noah Clowney and Mark Sears each led the team in points in that game with 17 while Brandon Miller was next on the team with 15 points. Mark Sears, Jaden Bradley, and Jahvon Quinerly each led the team in assists in that game with 3 while Noah Clowney led the team in rebounds with 14. They were 36.8% from the field, 28.6% from 3-point range, and 78.1% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 84.1 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 69 PPG against them. Alabama has an ATS record of 12-6-1 this season and their O/U record is 9-9-1.



Mississippi State vs Alabama Prediction

The current betting odds have Alabama listed as a 13 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Alabama is entering this game as a ranked team with their 17-2 record overall and they are the 2nd ranked team in the country right now. They have been unbeatable at home this year with their 9-0 home record and they have been unbeatable in the conference too with their 7-0 conference record. They have won 8 games in a row entering this one and they have been blowing out a lot of teams on this run. Mississippi State has been struggling a lot this season, they are 12-7 overall but have been terrible in road games with a 1-3 road record and they have struggled even more in conference games as they are 1-6 against SEC opponents. They haven't been playing well lately either as they have lost 4 games in a row entering this one and they already played Alabama at home earlier this season, losing that game by double digits. Alabama is going to continue on their run here and they will blow out Mississippi State again here but by more points at home this time. The best way to place a bet here is on Alabama to cover the spread in this game.

Mississippi State Alabama Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Wednesday, January 25, 2023 (9:00 pm ET start time) is Alabama 86 MS State 66.
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NCAAB Betting Trends


Mississippi State Bulldogs: 88-54 ATS revenging a loss where the opponent scored 75 or more points. 32-21 OVER as an underdog of 10 or more points. 11-3 UNDER after playing a game as favorite.
Alabama Crimson Tide: 1-8 ATS after 8 or more consecutive wins. 18-27 ATS after scoring 80 points or more. 9-0 OVER after 3 straight games with 41 or more rebounds.

Key Injuries


Mississippi State Bulldogs:  S. Jones Jr. (G) Ques Wed - Ankle. J. Horton Jr. (G) Ques Wed - Undisclosed.
Alabama Crimson Tide:  N. Burnett (G) Early Feb - Wrist.

Notable Quotes


"Frustrated is a good word and there are some other words we could insert in there, as well. We've obviously lost some games recently. After a loss I try to control my emotions and I don't say much and I address the team briefly. It is probably not what you think it would sound like and it is pretty low key.” - Chris Jans after his team’s loss against Florida in their last game.


“We don’t talk about where we’re at in the country. We talk about what we have to do to get better.” - Nate Oats after his team’s win against Missouri in their last game.


Starting Lineups


Mississippi State Bulldogs
D. Davis 
D. Jeffries 
C. Matthews 
E. Reed 
T. Smith

Alabama Crimson Tide
C. Bediako 
J. Bradley 
N. Clowney 
B. Miller 
M. Sears

Statistical Leaders


Mississippi State Bulldogs
PPG: T. Smith (13.7)
APG: D. Davis (3.2)
Reb/G: T. Smith (8.1)

Alabama Crimson Tide
PPG: B. Miller (19.8)
APG: J. Bradley (3.7)
Reb/G: N. Clowney (8.6)

Coaches:
Mississippi State Bulldogs: Chris Jans (1st season)
Alabama Crimson Tide: Nate Oats (4th season)


Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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