by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Nov 21, 2023
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Thursday, November 23, 2023
Venue: Davis Wade Stadium, Mississippi State, MS
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Ole Miss -10, MS State +10; Over/Under: 55.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Ole Miss -10.5, MS State +10.5; Over/Under: 55.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Ole Miss -10, MS State +10; Over/Under: 55.5 points
Season Record
Mississippi Rebels: 9-2 (5-2) (2nd place, SEC West)
Mississippi State Bulldogs: 5-6 (1-6) (6th place, SEC West)
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Mississippi Rebels: won their last game at home against the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 35-3.
Mississippi State Bulldogs: won their last game at home against the Southern Miss Golden Eagles 41-20.
Mississippi Rebels vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Preview and Analysis
Ole Miss is entering this game with a 9-2 record overall and they have a 5-2 record in their conference games too. They are 7-0 in their home games, 2-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against UL Monroe 35-3. Jaxson Dart was the starting QB and he completed 24/31 passes for 310 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Quinshon Judkins led the team in rushing yards with 65. Dayton Wade led the receivers with 108 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Demarko Williams led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Cedric Johnson led the defense in sacks with 1. Trey Washington came away with the only interception for them in that game.
Mississippi State is entering this game with a 5-6 record overall and they have a 1-6 record in their conference games too. They are 4-3 in their home games, 1-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Southern Mississippi 41-20. Will Rogers was the starting QB and he completed 12/27 passes for 144 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Jeffery Pittman led the team in rushing yards with 98 and 1 TD. Zavion Thomas led the receivers with 66 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Nathaniel Watson led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 18 assisted tackles while Nathaniel Watson, Jett Johnson, and De'monte Russell each led the defense in sacks with 1. Jett Johnson came away with the only interception for them in that game.
Mississippi vs Mississippi State Prediction
The current betting odds have Mississippi State listed as a 10 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Mississippi State hasn't looked good in their games this season with their 5-6 record overall but they still have a chance to become bowl eligible with a win in this game. They are going to bring their best effort here considering what is on the line for them and they will be looking to pull off an upset win against their rival too. MS State also got a boost from firing their head coach and looked a lot better in their last game with a win over USM. Ole Miss has looked great this season with their 9-2 record overall and their 5-2 conference record, but once again they have fallen short of the SEC Championship this year and really have nothing left to play for. Their starting QB Dart also picked up an injury in their last game and is now banged up coming into this one. Even if Ole Miss wins this game, there is no motivation for them to blowout MS State while Mississippi State has the home advantage and stiull needs the win in this game with something to play for still. The best way to place a bet here is on Mississippi State to cover the spread in this game.
Mississippi Mississippi State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Thursday, November 23, 2023 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Ole Miss 37 MS State 30.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Mississippi Rebels: 15-8 ATS in a road game where the total is between 52.5 and 56. 11-4 ATS after allowing 75 or less passing yards in their last game. 23-14 UNDER in all games. 28-12 UNDER as a road favorite. 16-8 UNDER after allowing 6 points or less last game.
Mississippi State Bulldogs: 1-6 ATS as a home underdog. 1-6 ATS against conference opponents. 1-6 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. 118-80 UNDER against conference opponents. 46-25 UNDER after a win by 17 or more points. 80-45 UNDER after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
Key Injuries
Mississippi Rebels: J. Dart (QB) Ques Thurs - Undisclosed. Z. Franklin (WR) Ques Thurs - Undisclosed. Q. Davis (WR) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed.
Mississippi State Bulldogs: K. Dinkins (DL) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. T. Williams (DL) out for season - Undisclosed. J. Albert (S) out for season - Knee. G. Spivey (TE) out for season - Eligibility. S. Traore (TE) Out indefinitely - Eligibility.
Notable Quotes
“I was not pleased with the start. I was very surprised we came out like that. Flat. The players were challenged at halftime to reset, bring their own energy and I was pleased with 21-0 in the third quarter.” - Lane Kiffin after his team’s win against ULM in their last game.
“They took the team that we went over every day in the meetings and bought into it. They had a really productive week of practice and I was very pleased with their attitude and effort.” - Greg Knox after his team’s win against USM in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Mississippi Rebels
WR Harris, Tre
WR Wade, Dayton
WR Watkins, Jordan
TE Prieskorn, Caden
QB Dart, Jaxson
RB Judkins, Quinshon
Mississippi State Bulldogs
WR Robinson, Justin
WR Thomas, Zavion
WR Griffin, Lideatrick
TE Goede, Ryland
QB Rogers, Will
RB Marks, Jo'Quavious
Statistical Leaders
Mississippi Rebels
Passing: J. Dart (2889)
Rushing: Q. Judkins (933)
Receiving: T. Harris (824)
Touchdowns: Q. Judkins (15)
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Passing: W. Rogers (1419)
Rushing: J. Marks (534)
Receiving: L. Griffin (626)
Touchdowns: J. Marks (6)
Coaches:
Mississippi Rebels: Lane Kiffin (4th season)
Mississippi State Bulldogs: Greg Knox (Interim)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
