Mississippi Rebels vs Michigan State Spartans Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/28/2025

Game Time: 7:09 pm ET, Friday, March 28, 2025

Venue:  State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA

Where to Watch:  CBS

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Ole Miss +3.5, MSU -3.5; Over/Under:  144.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Ole Miss +3.5, MSU -3.5; Over/Under:  144.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Ole Miss +3.5, MSU -3.5; Over/Under:  143.5 points

Mississippi Rebels:  24-11 (10-9) (8th place, SEC)

Michigan State Spartans:  29-6 (17-3) (1st place, Big Ten)

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Mississippi Rebels:  3-2  last 5

Michigan State Spartans:  4-1  last 5

Ole Miss is entering this game with a 24-11 record overall, a 10-8 record in conference games, and they are 6-2 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Iowa State Cyclones in their last game. Sean Pedulla led the team in points in that game with 20 while Jaemyn Brakefield was next on the team with 19. Sean Pedulla led the team in assists with 8 in that game while Malik Dia led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 58.2% from the field, 57.9% from 3-point range, and 76.2% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 77.4 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 71.7 PPG against them. Ole Miss has an ATS record of 18-16-1 this season and their O/U record is 18-17.

Michigan State is entering this game with a 29-6 record overall, a 17-3 conference record, and they are 6-3 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the New Mexico Lobos in their last game. Jaden Akins led the team in points in that game with 16 while Tre Holloman was next on the team with 14. Jase Richardson and Tre Holloman each led the team in assists with 4 in that game while Carson Cooper led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 44.4% from the field, 26.7% from 3-point range, and 67.9% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 78.2 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 67 PPG against them. Michigan State has an ATS record of 24-10-1 this season and their O/U record is 11-24.

The current betting odds have Michigan State listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Michigan State has looked really good in their games this season with their 29-6 record overall and their 17-3 conference record which had them right at the top of the Big Ten. They also looked good in their neutral site games as they were 6-3 in those. Meanwhile, Ole Miss has looked good in their games this season with their 24-11 record overall and their 10-8 conference record which had them in the top half of the SEC. They also looked good in their neutral site games with their 6-2 record in those. Ole Miss has looked good in this tournament so far, but they have also had an easier path, even though they have played teams from power conferences in both games. They beat North Carolina in the 1st round, but UNC didn't really deserve to be there with the season they had as they struggled against better opponents all year. Now they are coming off a win over Iowa State who was a 3 seed, but Iowa State came into the tournament missing one of their best players so they were just waiting to get upset by someone eventually. Michigan State wasn't really tested in their 1st game against Bryant, but they got a good test against New Mexico in the last round. New Mexico was leading that game for a lot of the 1st half, but Michigan State eventually took the game over and was able to win by 8 points in the end. Chris Beard has done a great job turning this Ole Miss program around this season, but Tom Izzo has his team playing at a really high level right now. The advantage in this game goes to Michigan State as they have the better talent and the better coach to lean on in this game. The best way to place a bet here is on Michigan State to cover the spread in this game. 

Mississippi Michigan State Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Friday, March 28, 2025 (7:09 pm ET start time) is Michigan State 79 Ole Miss 72.

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Mississippi Rebels: 18-28 ATS as an underdog. 16-24 ATS vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% of their attempts or more. 16-28 1H ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game. 10-6 UNDER versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season. 

Michigan State Spartans: 10-4 ATS as a neutral court favorite or pick. 26-16 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5. 49-31 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 turnovers/game or less. 25-17 UNDER when the total is 140 to 149.5. 31-21 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%).

Mississippi Rebels:  None.

Michigan State Spartans:  C. Walton (F) Out - Redshirt.

“We felt that pressure. We were kind of a, you know, win-or-bust team. We set the objective really high. We want to go in the tournament, we want to have a good seed. We want to be one of those teams that has a chance to win the tournament. And Ole Miss winning the tournament, probable? No. Possible? Absolutely.” - Chris Beard after his team’s win against ISU in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament.

“The first half of that game, that was as good of a barrage as we’ve had hit us. It wasn’t that we were down a lot, but it just seemed like we weren’t guarding, and they were making shots. I thought we got our break going when we got our defense going, and we rebounded the ball pretty well.” - Tom Izzo after his team’s win against UNM in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament. 

D. Davis 

M. Dia 

J. Murray 

M. Murrell 

S. Pedulla

J. Akins 

J. Fears 

T. Holloman 

J. Kohler 

S. Zapala

PPG: S. Pedulla (14.9)

APG: S. Pedulla (3.6)

Reb/G: M. Dia (5.7)

PPG: J. Akins (12.7)

APG: J. Fears (5.5)

Reb/G: J. Kohler (7.6)

Coaches:

Mississippi Rebels: Chris Beard (2nd season)

Michigan State Spartans: Tom Izzo (30th season)