by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Sep 23, 2026
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, September 26, 2026
Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Where to Watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Ole Miss +3.5, Florida -3.5; Over/Under: 58.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Ole Miss +3.5, Florida -3.5; Over/Under: 58.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Ole Miss +3.5, Florida -3.5; Over/Under: 58.5 points
Season Record
Mississippi Rebels: 3-0 (1-0) (1st place, SEC)
Florida Gators: 3-0 (1-0) (1st place, SEC)
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Mississippi Rebels: won their last game at home against the LSU Tigers 32-24.
Florida Gators: won their last game on the road against the Auburn Tigers 44-39.
Mississippi Rebels vs Florida Gators Preview and Analysis
Ole Miss is entering this game with a 3-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against LSU 32-24. Trinidad Chambliss was the starting QB and he completed 33/48 passes for 363 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Kewan Lacy led the team in rushing yards with 43 and 1 TD. Traylon Ray led the receivers with 115 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Sharif Denson and Tah'j Butler each led the defense in that game with 8 tackles while Blake Purchase led the defense in sacks with 1. Jaylon Braxton came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Florida is entering this game with a 3-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Auburn 44-39. Aaron Philo was the starting QB and he completed 15/22 passes for 204 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Jadan Baugh led the team in rushing yards with 162 and 3 TDs. Vernell Brown III led the receivers with 86 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Jayden Woods and Bryce Thornton each led the defense in that game with 6 tackles while Jayden Woods and Emmanuel Oyebadejo each led the defense in sacks with 2.5. Cormani McClain came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Mississippi vs Florida Prediction
The current betting odds have Ole Miss listed as a 3.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Ole Miss has looked great in their games this season with their 3-0 record overall and their 1-0 conference record which has them right near the top of the SEC. They haven't played any road games though and will be playing their 1st road game of the season here. Meanwhile, Florida has looked great in their games this season with their 3-0 record overall and their 1-0 conference record which has them right near the top of the SEC. They have looked great on their home field too with their 2-0 home record this season. Florida is coming off a 44-39 road win over Auburn in their last one and their offense has been rolling this season. The score of that game is a lot closer than the game actually was and Florida always felt in control, but the defense didn't look great in their first real test against an Auburn team that wasn't lighting things up on offense in their first 2 games. Florida will be back at home for this game, but this is going to be their first ranked opponent and they are getting a top 5 team coming into town. Ole Miss is coming off a 32-24 win over LSU in their last one and that was a huge win for them against their former head coach. The offense has been rolling all season with one of the best QB's in the nation and the defense also looked a lot better against LSU last week. This is going to be their first road game now, but they have definitely been challenged this season with 2 wins against ranked opponents. Ole Miss hasn't had the best defense, but Florida wasn't that inspiring on defense against a much worse Auburn offense and Ole Miss has the best player on the field to be the deciding factor here. The best way to place a bet here is on Ole Miss to cover the spread in this game.
Mississippi Florida Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 26, 2026 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Ole Miss 38 Florida 35.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Mississippi Rebels: 20-28 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 200 rushing yards/game or more. 2-7 ATS on the road off an upset win as an underdog. 15-26 ATS on the road versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play or more. 26-14 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins. 40-20 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game.
Florida Gators: 21-11 ATS in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63. 31-15 ATS versus poor rushing teams - averaging 120 rushing yards/game or less. 8-3 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 22-11 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63. 21-13 UNDER after a win by 6 or less points.
Key Injuries
Mississippi Rebels: M. Frazier (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed.
Florida Gators: E. Singleton Jr. (WR) Questionable - Ankle. E. Chieca (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Groce (WR) Out - Undisclosed. K. Jimenez (RB) Out - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
“This one meant a lot more than other games — the coaches that were here, now at LSU, some players as well. I wanted this one bad and our team did, too.” - Trinidad Chambliss after their win against LSU in their last game.
“I knew what we were going to do on offense tonight. I had no doubt. I was probably more concerned about our defense, to be honest with you.” - Jon Sumrall after his team’s win against Auburn in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Mississippi Rebels
WR Alexander, Deuce
WR Fields, Horatio
WR Cook II, Johntay
TE Hasz, Luke
QB Chambliss, Trinidad
RB Lacy, Kewan
Florida Gators
WR Wilson, Dallas
WR Singleton Jr., Eric
WR Brown III, Vernell
TE Jackson, Amir
QB Philo, Aaron
RB Baugh, Jadan
Statistical Leaders
Mississippi Rebels
Passing: Trinidad Chambliss (924)
Rushing: Kewan Lacy (191)
Receiving: Deuce Alexander (295)
Touchdowns: Kewan Lacy (4)
Florida Gators
Passing: Aaron Philo (721)
Rushing: Jadan Baugh (458)
Receiving: Vernell Brown III (246)
Touchdowns: Jadan Baugh (8)
Coaches:
Mississippi Rebels: Pete Golding (1st season)
Florida Gators: Jon Sumrall (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
