by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Oct 14, 2022
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Where to watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Vikings -3
FanDuel: Vikings -3
BetMGM: Vikings -3.5
Caesars: Vikings -3
Season record
Vikings: 4-1
Dolphins: 3-2
We're a quarter of the way through the NFL and the one thing we can say for sure is that nothing's for sure (shoutout to all the WCW fans who got that reference). And so far, it's been a fun season to be had by all with just one undefeated team left. Will this week be the week the Eagles fall? You'll have to see what our champion handicappers think of such an idea, especially our own Wayne Root who is 30-13-1 through the first five weeks of the NFL season. What does Wayne have in store for a fun week ahead? Make sure you're checking our Best Bets page at bigal.com to find out who are peeps are taking on the action this week.
Vikings - Dolphins preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Vikings: won 29-22 vs. Bears
Dolphins: lost 40-17 at Jets
The Minnesota Vikings being off to a 4-1 start really needs to be taken with a grain of salt. I can understand the excitement that comes with being a team that’s not the Green Bay Packers to lead the NFC North, especially when the Packers have lost two games that they should’ve won (especially that clunker in Minnesota)
The Minnesota Vikings being off to a 4-1 start really needs to be taken with a grain of salt. I can understand the excitement that comes with being a team that’s not the Green Bay Packers to lead the NFC North, especially when the Packers have lost two games that they should’ve won (especially that clunker in Minnesota)
But the Vikings are 4-1 and have beaten teams they should beat, even though they’ve all come by one score and haven’t looked all that impressive. So of course this week, the Vikings would be primed to go 5-1 because they’re taking on a Miami Dolphins team that has been relegated to using a lad named Skylar Thompson at quarterback because the Dolphins have no clue what to do in terms of a concussed football player.
Minnesota is coming off a 29-22 win over the Chicago Bears at home, the third straight win by a single possession because of course it was. But here’s my thinking of this whole ordeal: if you double a team in total yardage and hold the opponent to less than 300, shouldn’t you win by more than seven? Because that’s not what happened the other day.
Kirk Cousins threw for 296 yards and a touchdown to help lead the Vikings to such a victory in which Justin Fields nearly did everything by himself to somehow pull within seven, but nothing else could be done with that. After three straight home games, you better comfortable in beating teams with lackluster talent.
"I'm not where I was at the end of last season in that old system," Cousins said, "but we're developing it and we're getting there and I'm excited about that continued growth."
The Vikings might be the more fraudulent team to come around here. It’s best to see them try and do it again. Minnesota’s offense should be one of the more elite in the league with Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook, but instead it’s averaging 23.0 points per game while the defense has struggled against inept offenses in giving up 20.4 points per game. That shouldn’t be happening against the likes of the Bears or Saints.
And now that Thompson is playing for the Dolphins this week with now Tua Tagovailoa or Teddy Bridgewater, this is going to be one of the more ridiculous setups for the Vikings to be gifted five wins in their first six games. But how crazy must it be for the New York Jets to need the Dolphins to be down to their third quarterback in order to win 40-17 and hand the Dolphins their second straight loss?
"You never want to see one of your teammates go down, especially to see Teddy on the first play," the seventh-rounder from Kansas State, Thompson, said. "It was a little bit to take in."
Thompson was 19 of 133 for 166 yards and an interception. Throwing him in this kind of spot is not the most ideal situation and they’re about to be thrashed through the shadow realm.
Prediction
If Thompson wins, disband the Vikings. That’s all that needs to happen at this point. Vikings win by 14
Betting trends
Vikings are 7-14 ATS as a favorite the past three seasons.
Vikings are 5-7 ATS off a division game in their last 12.
Vikings are 0-6 ATS after winning three of their last four over the last three years.
Dolphins are 14-5 ATS at home in their last 19.
Dolphins are 9-3 ATS off a division game the last three years.
Statistical leaders
Vikings:
Passing: Kirk Cousins -- 1,327 yards, 7 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Dalvin Cook -- 373 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Justin Jefferson -- 547 yards, 2 TD
Defense: Za'Darius Smith -- 3.5 sacks
Dolphins:
Passing: Tua Tagovailoa -- 1,035 yards, 8 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Raheem Mostert -- 260 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Tyreek Hill -- 524 yards, 2 TD
Defense: Two tied -- 2 sacks
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Minnesota Vikings - Miami Dolphins prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NFL projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
