Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/19/2023

by Rod Pearson

Tuesday, Jul 18, 2023
Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Wednesday, July 19, 2023
Venue:  T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
Where to Watch:  ROOT Sports NW


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Twins +135, Mariners -155; Over/Under:  7 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Twins +135, Mariners -155; Over/Under:  7 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Twins +135, Mariners -155; Over/Under:  7 runs

Season Record

Minnesota Twins:  48-47 (1st place, AL Central)
Seattle Mariners:  47-46 (3rd place, AL West)

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Recent Form
Minnesota Twins:  6-4 last 10
Seattle Mariners:  6-4 last 10



Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Preview and Analysis


The Twins are entering this series on a 3 game winning streak and completed the sweep 3-0 in their 3-game series against the Oakland Athletics in their last series. They enter this game with a 48-47 record overall and have a road record of 22-25. This is the 3rd game of a 4-game series with the Mariners on Wednesday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. They also lost the series opener of this series on Monday. Their offense ranks 18th in the MLB with a .717 OPS. Bailey Ober is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Kenta Maeda is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 2-5 with a 5.50 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 ER, 0 HR, and 4 BB with 6 Ks on 4 hits through 3 IP against the Oakland Athletics.

The Mariners are entering this series off of a win but lost their 3-game series against the Detroit Tigers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 47-46 record overall and have a home record of 26-22. This is the 3rd game of a 4-game series with the Twins on Wednesday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. They also won the 1st game of this series on Monday. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .699 OPS. Rookie pitcher Bryan Woo is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Luis Castillo is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 6-7 with a 2.96 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 2 homers, and 0 BB with 5 strikeouts on 4 hits through 5 innings played against the Detroit Tigers.


Twins vs Mariners Prediction

The current betting odds have the Mariners listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Mariners haven't been having a good season this year but they are finally pulling themselves back over .500 as they have been playing a lot better in their games lately. They are still in a position to go on a run and try to make the playoffs but they need to take advantage of this series against the Twins who have also been struggling to stay over .500 on the season. The Twins have been worse in their road games this season while the Mariners have been a better home team and neither team has really had a good offense either. The Mariners will have a big advantage with the pitching matchup though since they have their ace Castillo on the mound here and he has been lights out all season. He does have a lot of losses but that is more because of the lack of run support he has been getting since he hasn't given up many runs in any of his starts this year. He will have no problem shutting down the Twins offense which hasn't been great all season and the Mariners offense has also been starting to score more runs in their games lately. The Twins are going with Maeda in this game and he hasn't really been that great in his few starts this season. He will get himself into trouble here with the way he has been struggling and the Mariners will be able to put up runs in this home game with their offense getting hotter now. The best way to place a bet here is on the Mariners to win this game.

Twins Mariners Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, July 19, 2023 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Mariners 4 Twins 1.
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MLB Betting Trends


Minnesota Twins: 48-47 (-9.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 7-19 (-10.8 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 to +150. 71-44 OVER as a road underdog of +100 or higher. 32-17 OVER on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5.

Seattle Mariners: 229-193 (+30.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 188-155 (+23.1 units) on the moneyline when the total is 7 to 8.5. 8-3 OVER at home when the total is 7 or less. LUIS CASTILLO is 11-5 OVER at home when the total is 7 to 7.5.

Key Injuries


Minnesota Twins:  J. Miranda (3B) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. B. Stewart (RP) Late July - Elbow. J. Polanco (SS) Late July - Hamstring. R. Lewis (SS) Mid Aug - Oblique. C. Thielbar (RP) Late July - Oblique. J. Alcala (RP) Late July - Forearm. J. De Leon (RP) out for season - Elbow. N. Gordon (2B) Out indefinitely - Shin. T. Mahle (SP) out for season - Elbow. C. Paddack (SP) Early Sept - Elbow.

Seattle Mariners:  M. Gonzales (SP) Late July - Forearm. P. Murfee (SP) out for season - Elbow. R. Ray (SP) out for season - Forearm. E. McGee (SP) out for season - Elbow. E. White (1B) Mid Aug - Thigh.


Notable Quotes


“He didn't have the feel for those breaking balls that he usually has and that's what I think led to what we watched in the last couple of innings.” - Rocco Baldelli after his team’s loss against the Mariners in their game on Monday.


“I thought the quality of at-bat got better as the game went on. It didn’t start off so good and Sonny Gray is really good. But after we made a few adjustments, understanding that you’re not going to hit the long ball off Sonny Gray. You've got to take your singles, work your walks and we were able to do that and put a big inning together.” - Scott Servais after his team’s win against the Twins in their game on Monday.


Starting Lineups


Minnesota Twins
Carlos Correa (R) SS
Edouard Julien (L) 2B
Byron Buxton (R) DH
Alex Kirilloff (L) 1B
Donovan Solano (R) 3B
Max Kepler (L) RF
Ryan Jeffers (R) C
Joey Gallo (L) LF
Michael A. Taylor (R) CF

Seattle Mariners
J.P. Crawford (L) SS
Julio Rodriguez (R) CF
Jarred Kelenic (L) LF
Eugenio Suarez (R) 3B
Cal Raleigh (S) C
Teoscar Hernandez (R) RF
Ty France (R) 1B
Mike Ford (L) DH
Jose Caballero (R) 2B

Statistical Leaders


Minnesota Twins
Batting Average:  Matt Wallner (.350)
Hits:  Carlos Correa (75)
Home Runs:  Joey Gallo (17)
RBI:  Carlos Correa (41)
Stolen Bases:  Willi Castro (20)
Wins:  Joe Ryan (8)
Saves:  Jhoan Duran (15)
ERA:  Brock Stewart (0.70)

Seattle Mariners
Batting Average:  Tom Murphy (.273)
Hits:  Julio Rodriguez (94)
Home Runs:  Teoscar Hernandez (15)
RBI:  Eugenio Suarez (54)
Stolen Bases:  Julio Rodriguez (22)
Wins:  George Kirby (8)
Saves:  Paul Sewald (19)
ERA:  Easton McGee (0.00)

Managers:
Minnesota Twins: Rocco Baldelli (5th season)
Seattle Mariners: Scott Servais (8th season)


Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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