by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Jun 06, 2024
Game Time: 6:40 pm ET, Friday, June 7, 2024
Venue: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Where to Watch: Apple TV+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Twins -122, Pirates +102; Over/Under: 8 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Twins -125, Pirates +105; Over/Under: 8 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Twins -125, Pirates +105; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
Season Record
Minnesota Twins: 33-28 (3rd place, AL Central)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 29-32 (4th place, NL Central)
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Recent Form
Minnesota Twins: 5-5 last 10
Pittsburgh Pirates: 6-4 last 10
Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview and Analysis
The Twins won their 3-game series against the Houston Astros 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 33-28 record overall and have a road record of 17-15. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Pirates on Friday with the series finale of their series against the New York Yankees still to be played on Thursday. The Twins lost the series opener of that series on Tuesday and the 2nd game on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 16th in the MLB with a .694 OPS. Pablo López is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Joe Ryan is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 4-4 with a 3.38 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 ER, 4 HR, and 2 BB with 4 Ks on 8 hits through 5 IP against the Houston Astros.
The Pirates lost their 3-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 29-32 record overall and have a home record of 14-15. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Twins on Friday with the 3rd game of their series against the Los Angeles Dodgers still to be played on Thursday. The Pirates won the series opener of that series on Tuesday and the 2nd game on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 27th in the MLB with a .656 OPS. Bailey Falter is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Mitch Keller is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 7-3 with a 3.42 ERA this season. His team won their last 5 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 1 BB with 8 strikeouts on 5 hits through 6 innings played against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Twins vs Pirates Prediction
The current betting odds have the Pirates listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Pirates haven't looked good in their games this season with their 29-32 record overall and their 14-15 home record. They were leading the NL Central early on in the season, but they have regressed now and are in 4th place in the division. They are starting to look a lot better in their games lately though, beating the Dodgers twice in their most recent series. Meanwhile, the Twins have looked good in their games this season with their 33-28 record overall, but that record only has them in 3rd place in a really competitive AL Central. They have also been losing a lot of momentum in their games lately, losing to the Yankees in their most recent series. Ryan is starting for the Twins in this game and he is 4-4 with a 3.38 ERA, but he gave up 5 earned runs in his last start and has been starting to unravel lately. Keller is on the mound for the Pirates in this game and he has struggled in recent years, but this season he has been lights out, playing one of his best seasons over the last few years. He is 7-3 with a 3.42 ERA and he is coming off another good start which he only allowed 1 earned run in. The Pirates are going to have some momentum in this series after beating the Dodgers twice in their last one, and they are starting to get hot with their offense again too. Keller hasn't been a reliable starter in recent years but this season he has been great and will continue to pitch well. The best way to place a bet here is on the Pirates to win this game.
Twins Pirates Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Friday, June 7, 2024 (6:40 pm ET start time) is Pirates 5 Twins 3.
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MLB Betting Trends
Minnesota Twins: 201-190 (-22.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 80-86 (-8.5 units) on the moneyline when the money line is +125 to -125. 90-106 (-19.4 units) on the moneyline in road games. 21-10 UNDER when the money line is +125 to -125. 24-17 UNDER against right-handed starters. JOE RYAN is 4-1 UNDER when the money line is +125 to -125.
Pittsburgh Pirates: 18-16 (+7.3 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. MITCH KELLER is 6-1 (+7.1 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher and 8-4 (+5.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. MITCH KELLER is 11-6 UNDER at home when the money line is +125 to -125, 9-5 UNDER at home when the total is 7 to 7.5, and 9-4 UNDER when playing on Friday.
Key Injuries
Minnesota Twins: B. Lee (SS) Ques Thur - Back. C. Culpepper (PH) Out indefinitely - Forearm. D. De Andrade (SS) Out indefinitely - Ankle.
Pittsburgh Pirates: M. Taylor (CF) Out Fri - Personal. J. Bae (SS) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. M. Gonzales (SP) Out indefinitely - Forearm. A. Williams (SS) Out indefinitely - Wrist. J. Bart (C) Out indefinitely - Thumb. M. Perez (SP) Mid June - Groin. B. Chandler (SP) Out indefinitely - Forearm. R. Borucki (RP) Out indefinitely - Arm. D. Moreta (RP) out for season - Elbow. J. Oviedo (SP) out for season - Elbow. E. Rodriguez (C) out for season - Elbow.
Notable Quotes
“We weren’t really close to where we needed to be today. We need to do a lot better. So that’s not just one sector of our team, that’s our whole team.” - Rocco Baldelli after his team’s loss against the Yankees in their game on Wednesday.
“Good composure. He’s going to give up home runs, but when you have an error and you load the bases, and again, having to grind through this lineup, it’s not easy. There’s All-Stars throughout it. So very impressed with how composed he stayed.” - Derek Shelton after his team’s win against the LA Dodgers in their game on Wednesday.
Starting Lineups
Minnesota Twins
Manuel Margot (R) RF
Carlos Correa (R) SS
Ryan Jeffers (R) C
Royce Lewis (R) 3B
Jose Miranda (R) DH
Byron Buxton (R) CF
Willi Castro (S) LF
Carlos Santana (S) 1B
Kyle Farmer (R) 2B
Pittsburgh Pirates
Andrew McCutchen (R) DH
Bryan Reynolds (S) LF
Connor Joe (R) 1B
Edward Olivares (R) RF
Ke'Bryan Hayes (R) 3B
Nick Gonzales (R) SS
Yasmani Grandal (S) C
Jared Triolo (R) 2B
Jack Suwinski (L) CF
Statistical Leaders
Minnesota Twins
Batting Average: Royce Lewis (.571)
Hits: Willi Castro (52)
Home Runs: Ryan Jeffers (12)
RBI: Ryan Jeffers (36)
Stolen Bases: Willi Castro (7)
Wins: Pablo López (5)
Saves: Jhoan Duran (10)
ERA: Josh Staumont (0.00)
Pittsburgh Pirates
Batting Average: Nick Gonzales (.310)
Hits: Bryan Reynolds (63)
Home Runs: Andrew McCutchen (8)
RBI: Bryan Reynolds (34)
Stolen Bases: Jack Suwinski (5)
Wins: Mitch Keller (7)
Saves: David Bednar (12)
ERA: Colin Holderman (0.92)
Managers:
Minnesota Twins: Rocco Baldelli (6th season)
Pittsburgh Pirates: Derek Shelton (5th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
