Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/04/2026

Game Time: 1:35 pm ET, Saturday, July 4, 2026

Venue:  Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY

Where to Watch:  ESPN Unlimited, MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Twins +129, Yankees -156; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Twins +130, Yankees -155; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Twins +130, Yankees -155; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Minnesota Twins:  42-46 (3rd place, AL Central)

New York Yankees:  48-38 (2nd place, AL East)

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Minnesota Twins:  5-5 last 10

New York Yankees:  2-8 last 10

The Twins are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Houston Astros 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 42-46 record overall and have a road record of 20-23. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Yankees on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 11th in the MLB with a .733 OPS. Rookie pitcher Mike Paredes is their starting pitcher on Friday while Zebby Matthews is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 4-5 with a 4.15 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 1 BB with 7 SO on 4 hits through 7 IP against the Houston Astros.

The Yankees are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 3-game series against the Detroit Tigers 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 48-38 record overall and have a home record of 22-18. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Twins on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .740 OPS. Gerrit Cole is their starting pitcher on Friday while Carlos Rodón is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 4-2 with a 3.30 ERA this season. His team won 5 of their last 6 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 4 walks with 6 strikeouts on 1 hit through 5 innings pitched against the Boston Red Sox.

The current betting odds have the Yankees listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Twins haven't looked good in their games this season with their 42-46 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL Central. They haven't been a great road team either with their 20-23 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Yankees have looked really good in their games this season with their 48-38 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL East. They have looked good in their own ballpark too with their 22-18 home record this season. The Yankees are 2-8 in their last 10 games and have been in a big slump lately, but the Twins are only 5-5 in their last 10 games as they have been really up and down. The Yankees also have one of the best offenses in MLB and they are going to be desperate to break out of this funk at home. The Yankees are going with Rodon in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 4-2 with a 3.30 ERA and the team has been having a ton of success with him lately. They have won 5 of their last 6 games with him starting and he is coming off another great start in which he gave up no runs, something that has been a common theme for him lately. The Twins are going with Matthews in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 4-5 with a 4.15 ERA and he has been really up and down as a starter all year. The team has been having success lately, winning 2 of their last 3 games with him starting, and he only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start too, but that hasn't been a common theme for him and he is going to have trouble against this Yankees offense. This is a great opportunity for the Yankees to get a much needed win at home, so look for them to take advantage of this pitching matchup. The best way to place a bet here is on the Yankees to win this game. 

Twins Yankees Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 4, 2026 (1:35 pm ET start time) is Yankees 5 Twins 2.

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Minnesota Twins: 37-46 (-8.2 units) on the moneyline against AL East opponents. 194-218 (-47 units) on the moneyline in all games. 91-114 (-19.6 units) on the moneyline in road games. 26-15 OVER on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5.

New York Yankees: 66-26 (+27.6 units) on the moneyline against AL Central opponents. 187-128 (+5.5 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 59-31 (+6.7 units) on the moneyline as a home favorite of -150 to -200. 11-6 OVER when the total is 9 to 9.5.

Minnesota Twins:  B. Buxton (CF) Day To Day - Hip. A. Banda (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Lat. B. Ober (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. R. Jeffers (C) Ten Day IL - Hand. G. Acton (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. C. Sands (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. M. Abel (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. D. Festa (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. P. Lopez (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

New York Yankees:  R. McMahon (3B) Ten Day IL - Throat. T. Grisham (CF) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. A. Judge (RF) Ten Day IL - Rib. M. Fried (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. G. Stanton (DH) Ten Day IL - Leg. C. Schmidt (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“I think he’s probably more excited because his Nana was in the building. Got to meet her earlier. His pops is at a lot of games. His mom and dad are at a lot of games. But his grandma was here, so I think he was pretty fired up about that.” - Derek Shelton after his team’s win against the Astros in their game on Wednesday.

“There’s no way of sugarcoating it. We’re capable of way more. Look, you have stretches where it’s tough and you’re missing some guys. But this was a really difficult week for us offensively, coupled with not playing clean enough and taking care of the ball well enough. That’s what you get. You get an awful week.” - Aaron Boone after his team’s loss against the Tigers in their game on Wednesday. 

Trevor Larnach (L) LF

Brooks Lee (S) 3B

Kody Clemens (L) 2B

Josh Bell (S) DH

Royce Lewis (R) 1B

Victor Caratini (S) C

Ryan Kreidler (R) CF

Tristan Gray (L) SS

Luke Keaschall (R) RF

Ben Rice (L) 1B

Jasson Domínguez (S) RF

Cody Bellinger (L) LF

Amed Rosario (R) DH

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 2B

Anthony Volpe (R) SS

Austin Wells (L) C

José Caballero (R) CF

Oswaldo Cabrera (S) 3B

Batting Average:  Gabriel Gonzalez (.500)

Hits:  Byron Buxton (81)

Home Runs:  Byron Buxton (25)

RBI:  Josh Bell (56)

Stolen Bases:  Luke Keaschall (12)

Wins:  Taj Bradley (7)

Saves:  Yoendrys Gómez (8)

ERA:  Yoendrys Gómez (1.57)

Batting Average:  Paul Goldschmidt (.278)

Hits:  Ben Rice (81)

Home Runs:  Ben Rice (23)

RBI:  Ben Rice (54)

Stolen Bases:  Jazz Chisholm (26)

Wins:  Cam Schlittler (8)

Saves:  David Bednar (16)

ERA:  Yovanny Cruz (0.00)

Managers:

Minnesota Twins: Derek Shelton (1st season)

New York Yankees: Aaron Boone (9th season)