Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/03/2026

Game Time: 7:05 pm ET, Friday, July 3, 2026

Venue:  Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Twins +153, Yankees -186; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Twins +150, Yankees -180; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Twins +150, Yankees -185; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Minnesota Twins:  42-46 (3rd place, AL Central)

New York Yankees:  48-38 (2nd place, AL East)

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Minnesota Twins:  5-5 last 10

New York Yankees:  2-8 last 10

The Twins are entering this series off a win and won their 4-game series against the Houston Astros 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 42-46 record overall and have a road record of 20-23. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Yankees on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 11th in the MLB with a .733 OPS. Taj Bradley was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while rookie pitcher Mike Paredes is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 0-1 with a 4.26 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 3 ER, 2 HR, and 0 BB with 2 SO on 8 hits through 5.1 IP against the Colorado Rockies.

The Yankees are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 3-game series against the Detroit Tigers 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 48-38 record overall and have a home record of 22-18. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Twins on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .740 OPS. Will Warren was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Gerrit Cole is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 2-3 with a 4.06 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 earned runs, 2 homers, and 1 walk with 5 strikeouts on 7 hits through 5.1 innings pitched against the Boston Red Sox.

The current betting odds have the Twins listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Twins haven't looked good in their games this season with their 42-46 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL Central. They haven't been a great road team either with their 20-23 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Yankees have looked really good in their games this season with their 48-38 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL East. They have looked good in their own ballpark too with their 22-18 home record this season. The Twins are 5-5 in their last 10 games and haven't looked great lately, but they have looked a lot better than the Yankees who are 2-8 in their last 10 games. The Twins have also been getting really hot on offense lately while the Yankees have been in a slump. The Yankees are going with Cole in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 2-3 with a 4.06 ERA, but lately he hasn't looked great. He is coming off a bad start in which he gave up 4 earned runs and he has been bad in his last 2 starts now, his team losing 2 games in a row now with him starting too. The Twins are going with their rookie Paredes in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 0-1 with a 4.26 ERA, but he has looked a lot better lately. He did give up 3 earned runs in his last start, but he hasn't been giving up many runs lately and even his team has been having more success with him, winning 3 of their last 4 games with him starting. This is a good opportunity for the Twins to keep rolling now that their offense is hot and take advantage of the way Cole has pitched in his last 2 starts. The best way to place a bet here is on the Twins to win this game. 

Twins Yankees Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 3, 2026 (7:05 pm ET start time) is Twins 5 Yankees 3.

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Minnesota Twins: 37-46 (-8.2 units) on the moneyline against AL East opponents. 194-218 (-47 units) on the moneyline in all games. 91-114 (-19.6 units) on the moneyline in road games. 26-15 OVER on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5.

New York Yankees: 66-26 (+27.6 units) on the moneyline against AL Central opponents. 187-128 (+5.5 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 33-18 (+7.4 units) on the moneyline vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start. 11-6 OVER when the total is 9 to 9.5.

Minnesota Twins:  B. Buxton (CF) Day To Day - Hip. A. Banda (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Lat. B. Ober (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. R. Jeffers (C) Ten Day IL - Hand. G. Acton (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. C. Sands (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. M. Abel (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. D. Festa (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. P. Lopez (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

New York Yankees:  R. McMahon (3B) Ten Day IL - Throat. T. Grisham (CF) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. A. Judge (RF) Ten Day IL - Rib. M. Fried (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. G. Stanton (DH) Ten Day IL - Leg. C. Schmidt (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“I think he’s probably more excited because his Nana was in the building. Got to meet her earlier. His pops is at a lot of games. His mom and dad are at a lot of games. But his grandma was here, so I think he was pretty fired up about that.” - Derek Shelton after his team’s win against the Astros in their game on Wednesday.

“There’s no way of sugarcoating it. We’re capable of way more. Look, you have stretches where it’s tough and you’re missing some guys. But this was a really difficult week for us offensively, coupled with not playing clean enough and taking care of the ball well enough. That’s what you get. You get an awful week.” - Aaron Boone after his team’s loss against the Tigers in their game on Wednesday. 

Trevor Larnach (L) LF

Brooks Lee (S) 3B

Kody Clemens (L) 2B

Josh Bell (S) DH

Royce Lewis (R) 1B

Victor Caratini (S) C

Ryan Kreidler (R) CF

Tristan Gray (L) SS

Luke Keaschall (R) RF

Ben Rice (L) 1B

Jasson Domínguez (S) RF

Cody Bellinger (L) LF

Amed Rosario (R) DH

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 2B

Anthony Volpe (R) SS

Austin Wells (L) C

José Caballero (R) CF

Oswaldo Cabrera (S) 3B

Batting Average:  Gabriel Gonzalez (.500)

Hits:  Byron Buxton (81)

Home Runs:  Byron Buxton (25)

RBI:  Josh Bell (56)

Stolen Bases:  Luke Keaschall (12)

Wins:  Taj Bradley (7)

Saves:  Yoendrys Gómez (8)

ERA:  Yoendrys Gómez (1.57)

Batting Average:  Paul Goldschmidt (.278)

Hits:  Ben Rice (81)

Home Runs:  Ben Rice (23)

RBI:  Ben Rice (54)

Stolen Bases:  Jazz Chisholm (26)

Wins:  Cam Schlittler (8)

Saves:  David Bednar (16)

ERA:  Yovanny Cruz (0.00)

Managers:

Minnesota Twins: Derek Shelton (1st season)

New York Yankees: Aaron Boone (9th season)