by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Aug 06, 2021
Game time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Venue: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Where to watch: Bally Sports North, AT&T SportsNet-SW
Season-to-date
Twins: 46-63 (Last place, AL Central)
Astros: 65-44 (1st place, AL West)
Recent lineups
Twins:
Max Kepler (L) RF
Brent Rooker (R) LF
Jorge Polanco (S) DH
Josh Donaldson (R) 3B
Luis Arraez (L) 2B
Mitch Garver (R) C
Miguel Sano (R) 1B
Rob Refsnyder (R) CF
Andrelton Simmons (R) SS
Astros:
Jose Altuve (R) 2B
Michael Brantley (L) DH
Yordan Alvarez (L) LF
Carlos Correa (R) SS
Kyle Tucker (L) RF
Aledmys Diaz (R) 3B
Chas McCormick (R) CF
Taylor Jones (R) 1B
Martin Maldonado (R) C
Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Astros -195, Twins +165; Over 9 -120, Under 9 +100
BetMGM: Astros -185, Twins +150
Recent form (entering Friday)
Twins: Losers of five of eight
Astros: Losers of four of five
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Twins - Astros preview
The Houston Astros have to be feeling decent right now.
The American League West is such a crapshoot after them, that there isn’t much of a threat for them to be caught. In the span of two weeks, they’ve only seen their lead for first place shrink by two games.
So they’re still up four games on the Oakland Athletics. It’s hard to see Houston losing that lead.
Unless they lose games like they did to the Minnesota Twins on Thursday and squander a chance to maintain that lead.
The cellar-dwellers of the American League Central, fresh off trading Jose Berrios and Nelson Cruz, are still just that. But they began this four-game series with a 5-3 win over the Astros on Thursday.
Safe to say this is an important time for the Astros to string some wins together. They lost two of the three-game series to the San Francisco Giants, and then a two-game split in the long-awaited World Series rematch against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Houston is in the early stages of playing six home games in a row before a seven-game stretch against the Los Angeles Angels and Kansas City Royals. Couple that with an upcoming two-game interleague series against the Colorado Rockies, the Astros have a chance to pad the division lead.
If not, it might be panic time with 50 games to go. Luis Garcia and Michael Pineda are expected to be the starting pitchers for Houston and Minnesota, respectively.
Trends
All signs point to the Astros winning this game. They’re 14-7 as a favorite between -175 and -250. At home, they’re 16-6 when the line is between -150 to -200.
The Twins aren’t any better as the dog; they’re 16-26 (-5.3 units) when +100 or higher. Basically, it’s a hit-or-miss situation when it comes to betting on the Twins. Unless things fall apart with the Astros in the coming days, the favorite is the right play here, especially when it pertains to needing more evidence to see the Twins keep this sustained.
Prediction
This should be an easy win for the Astros, but don’t expect the over to be high. Houston will do enough. Astros win, under cashes.
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
