Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/07/2023

Game Time: 4:45 pm ET, Saturday, October 7, 2023

Venue:  Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX

Where to Watch:  FOX

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Twins +130, Astros -155; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Twins +130, Astros -150; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Twins +135, Astros -160; Over/Under:  8 runs

Minnesota Twins:  87-75 (1st place, AL Central)

Houston Astros:  90-72 (1st place, AL West)

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Minnesota Twins:  7-3 last 10

Houston Astros:  6-4 last 10

The Twins are entering this series on a 2 game winning streak and won their best 2 out of 3-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays 2-0 in the AL Wild Card Round. They finished the regular season with an 87-75 record overall and had a road record of 40-41. This is the series opener of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Astros on Saturday for the AL Division Series. Their offense ranks 7th in the MLB with a .754 OPS. Sonny Gray was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Bailey Ober is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 8-6 with a 3.43 ERA this season. His team won 4 of their last 5 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 0 BB with 9 Ks on 2 hits through 6.2 IP against the Colorado Rockies.

The Astros are entering this series on a 4 game winning streak and completed the sweep 3-0 in their 3-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks in their last series of the regular season. They finished the regular season with a 90-72 record overall and had a home record of 39-42. This is the 1st game of a best 3 out of 5 game series with the Twins on Saturday for the AL Division Series. Their offense ranks 5th in the MLB with a .768 OPS. Cristian Javier was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Justin Verlander is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 13-8 with a 3.22 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 3 BB with 5 strikeouts on 2 hits through 5 innings played against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The current betting odds have the Astros listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Twins and the Astros both won their divisions but the Astros finished with the better record so they have the home advantage here and skipped the Wild Card Round. The Twins looked good in their 2 games as they swept the Blue Jays but the Blue Jays have had their own trouble in the playoffs lately and both of those games were at home in Minnesota. The Twins are now on the road and weren't as good in their road games this season. The Astros weren't as good in their home games this year but they also have the experience in the playoffs that the Twins lack and the Astros are still the defending World Series Champions. The Astros have Verlander on the mound here while the Twins are likely going with Bailey but either way the Astros have the better pitching matchup here and their playoff experience will help them get through these home games in this series. The best way to place a bet here is on the Astros to win this game. 

Twins Astros Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, October 7, 2023 (4:45 pm ET start time) is Astros 4 Twins 1.

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Minnesota Twins: 15-26 (-8.4 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 to +150. 17-28 (-20.8 units) on the moneyline after 2 or more consecutive wins. 77-48 OVER as a road underdog of +100 or higher. 22-10 OVER against AL West opponents.

Houston Astros: 29-13 (+14.7 units) on the moneyline after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better. 21-9 (+10.4 units) on the moneyline after 2 or more consecutive unders. 17-8 OVER as a home favorite of -150 to -200. 12-6 OVER after allowing 4 runs or less 4 straight games.

Minnesota Twins:  C. Correa (SS) Prob Sat - Hand. N. Gordon (2B) Mid Oct - Shin. B. Buxton (DH) Mid Oct - Hamstring. J. Gallo (1B) Mid Oct - Foot. D. Keuchel (SP) out for season - Calf. J. Miranda (3B) out for season - Shoulder. O. Ortega (SP) out for season - Back. J. De Leon (RP) out for season - Elbow. T. Mahle (SP) out for season - Elbow.

Houston Astros:  R. Stanek (RP) Prob Sat - Personal. L. McCullers Jr. (SP) out for season - Elbow. L. Garcia (SP) out for season - Elbow.

“Everything is October. The mentality is different. I’m just giving everything out there, everything I have. I’m going to keep doing that for the rest of the time that I’m here in Minnesota.” - Carlos Correa after their win against the Blue Jays in their game on Wednesday.

“I didn't want to end on 89 and we got to 90.” - Dusty Baker after his team’s win against the Diamondbacks in their last game of the regular season.

Edouard Julien (L) 2B

Jorge Polanco (S) 3B

Royce Lewis (R) DH

Max Kepler (L) RF

Alex Kirilloff (L) 1B

Carlos Correa (R) SS

Matt Wallner (L) LF

Ryan Jeffers (R) C

Michael A. Taylor (R) CF

Jose Altuve (R) 2B

Alex Bregman (R) 3B

Kyle Tucker (L) RF

Yordan Alvarez (L) DH

Jose Abreu (R) 1B

Michael Brantley (L) LF

Chas McCormick (R) CF

Jeremy Pena (R) SS

Martin Maldonado (R) C

Batting Average:  Royce Lewis (.309)

Hits:  Carlos Correa (118)

Home Runs:  Max Kepler (24)

RBI:  Max Kepler (66)

Stolen Bases:  Willi Castro (33)

Wins:  Joe Ryan (11)

Saves:  Jhoan Duran (27)

ERA:  Brock Stewart (0.65)

Batting Average:  Jose Altuve (.311)

Hits:  Alex Bregman (163)

Home Runs:  Yordan Alvarez (31)

RBI:  Kyle Tucker (112)

Stolen Bases:  Kyle Tucker (30)

Wins:  Framber Valdez (12)

Saves:  Ryan Pressly (31)

ERA:  Bennett Sousa (0.00)

Managers:

Minnesota Twins: Rocco Baldelli (5th season)

Houston Astros: Dusty Baker (4th season)