Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/21/2026

Game Time: 6:40 pm ET, Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Venue:  Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Twins +129, Guardians -156; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Twins +130, Guardians -155; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Twins +130, Guardians -155; Over/Under:  8 runs

Minnesota Twins:  49-51 (3rd place, AL Central)

Cleveland Guardians:  52-48 (2nd place, AL Central)

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Minnesota Twins:  6-4 last 10

Cleveland Guardians:  5-5 last 10

The Twins are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Chicago Cubs 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 49-51 record overall and have a road record of 23-26. This is the 2nd game of a 4-game series with the Guardians on Tuesday with the series opener still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 8th in the MLB with a .735 OPS. Joe Ryan is their starting pitcher on Monday while rookie pitcher Kendry Rojas is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 1-1 with a 2.79 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 0 BB with 1 SO on 1 hits through 1 IP against the Chicago Cubs.

The Guardians are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 52-48 record overall and have a home record of 25-24. This is the 2nd game of a 4-game series with the Twins on Tuesday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 30th in the MLB with a .678 OPS. Tanner Bibee is their starting pitcher on Monday while Parker Messick is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 8-5 with a 2.73 ERA this season. His team lost 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 1 homer, and 4 walks with 1 strikeout on 1 hit through 6 innings pitched against the Miami Marlins.

The current betting odds have the Guardians listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Guardians have looked good in their games this season with their 52-48 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL Central. They have looked good in their own ballpark too with their 25-24 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Twins haven't looked good in their games this season with their 49-51 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL Central. They haven't been a great road team either with their 23-26 road record this year. The Twins are 6-4 in their last 10 games and they were rolling into the All-Star break, but they have lost some of their momentum coming out with a series loss to the Cubs. The Guardians are also off a series loss and are only 5-5 in their last 10 games, but they have been pulling themselves out of a bad slump lately and they have the stronger pitching staff in this series. The Twins have looked great offensively as of late, but their offense was not great in that last series and they have been dealing with some injuries that puts them in a tough situation with their pitching for this game. The Guardians are going with Messick though and he has looked great all season. Messick is 8-5 with a 2.73 ERA and he has been one of their best starters all season. The team has had some trouble with him lately, losing 3 of their last 4 games with him starting, but he only gave up 1 earned run in his last start and that has been a common theme for him. The bullpen has also been great for the Guardians all season, so they have a big edge in this game with their pitching and they will take advantage of that at home, especially with this being a really important series for the division. The best way to place a bet here is on the Guardians to win this game. 

Twins Guardians Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, July 21, 2026 (6:40 pm ET start time) is Guardians 5 Twins 2.

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Minnesota Twins: 201-223 (-44.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 94-117 (-18.6 units) on the moneyline in road games. 63-68 (-11.2 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 6-3 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.

Cleveland Guardians: 237-199 (+34.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 124-94 (+9.4 units) on the moneyline in home games. 85-53 (+26.6 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 16-10 UNDER against division opponents.

Minnesota Twins:  A. Banda (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. M. Abel (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Prielipp (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Finger. M. Raya (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. B. Buxton (CF) Ten Day IL - Hip. G. Acton (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. C. Sands (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Forearm. D. Festa (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. P. Lopez (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Cleveland Guardians:  T. Herrin (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. A. Martinez (LF) Ten Day IL - Foot. J. Ramirez (3B) Ten Day IL - Hand.

“We didn’t play good today. They played good today.” - Derek Shelton after his team’s loss against the Cubs in their game on Sunday. 

“I don't know if I would [say] sloppy effort. Sloppy execution. We made some big mistakes. Part of playing in the big leagues is understanding what the situation of the game is, and that's our job as coaches, is to teach. We need to step up and be better.” - Stephen Vogt after his team’s loss against the Pirates in their game on Sunday. 

Austin Martin (R) LF

Ryan Jeffers (R) C

Josh Bell (S) DH

Royce Lewis (R) 2B

Victor Caratini (S) 1B

Kody Clemens (L) RF

Luke Keaschall (R) CF

Brooks Lee (S) 3B

Ryan Kreidler (R) SS

Steven Kwan (L) LF

Travis Bazzana (L) 2B

Chase DeLauter (L) DH

Brayan Rocchio (S) SS

Kyle Manzardo (L) 1B

Kahlil Watson (L) RF

Gabriel Arias (R) 3B

Patrick Bailey (S) C

Petey Halpin (L) CF

Batting Average:  Gabriel Gonzalez (.500)

Hits:  Josh Bell (88)

Home Runs:  Byron Buxton (25)

RBI:  Josh Bell (60)

Stolen Bases:  Luke Keaschall (12)

Wins:  Taj Bradley (9)

Saves:  Yoendrys Gómez (11)

ERA:  Yoendrys Gómez (1.65)

Batting Average:  Austin Hedges (.285)

Hits:  Brayan Rocchio (90)

Home Runs:  Angel Martínez (11)

RBI:  Chase DeLauter (47)

Stolen Bases:  José Ramírez (24)

Wins:  Gavin Williams (10)

Saves:  Cade Smith (28)

ERA:  Colin Holderman (1.73)

Managers:

Minnesota Twins: Derek Shelton (1st season)

Cleveland Guardians: Stephen Vogt (3rd season)