Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds, Picks and Preview - 10/27/2021

by Chuck Sommers

Tuesday, Oct 26, 2021
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Venue: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Where to watch: Bally Sports North, Bally Sports Wisconsin

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings:  NL
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: NL

Season record
Timberwolves: 2-1
Bucks: 3-1

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Timberwolves - Bucks preview and analysis


Recent form
Timberwolves: lost 107-98 vs. Pelicans on Monday
Bucks: won 119-109 at Pacers on Monday

It might not matter who suits up for the Milwaukee Bucks. It could be you, me, your neighbor Joe that works in plumbing, or Grandma Mary with her ankle-breaking prowess.

You’re likely winning games if Giannis Antetokounmpo needs you in the lineup.

The Bucks wrapped up their three-game road trip Monday with a 10-point win over the Indiana Pacers, showing that you (somewhat) don’t need Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez in your lineup.

Spoiler: You really do.

But the Bucks will try to push their winning streak to three as they return home Wednesday to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are coming off a disappointing nine-point loss at home to the New Orleans Pelicans on Monday.

Despite being down two of their pivotal role guys, the Bucks got more than enough from Giannis and Khris Middleton with 57 points and Grayson Allen continued his strong showing in the starting lineup with 19 points in the win.

Antetokounmpo also had 10 rebounds to go with nine assists, or as we call it in this line of work, a typical Giannis line.

"It was really aggressive Giannis tonight," coach Mike Budenholzer said on Monday. "At the same time, he’s making reads, making great passes. When he's attacking like that, that's when we are at our best. He had that extra gear tonight."

The Bucks have rebounded well since losing by 42 to the Miami Heat a week ago, with double-digit wins over the San Antonio Spurs and Pacers. The good news is they’ve been able to score without Holiday and Lopez. Bad news is they haven’t been able to defend without Holiday and Lopez. Milwaukee has given up 137, 111 and 109 points in their last three games without their two defensive anchors. Giannis, a former Defensive Player of the Year, can’t do it all.

Which makes this matchup against the Wolves so intriguing, primarily to see what Minnesota looks like against a much better team. Minnesota is off to a 2-1 start with wins over the Houston Rockets and Pelicans, but loss the two-game home series against New Orleans by nine on Monday.

It was a two-man show between Karl-Anthony Towns with a 32-point, 14-rebound double-double to go with seven assists, and Anthony Edwards also chipped in with 28 points and nine rebounds. But Minnesota ran out of gas outside of those two. D’Angelo Russell was only 3 of 14, and Malik Beasley was 1 of 8 off the bench in 29 minutes.

"I felt like, for the most part, that our preparation, we kind of disrespected the game," vetearn guard Patrick Beverly said. "That comes with time. You disrespect the game and the game will come back and get you, and it did tonight."

How much time the Timberwolves have is another question. This is supposed to be the year that everything turns around with the core in Minnesota. Now that Edwards is in the program for a second year, he and Towns will be relied upon to carry that group. If Russell is having night like that, this group isn’t getting anywhere.

But this seems like the right matchup where Russell gets going from the perimeter. Holiday is still projected to miss this game, and while George Hill is no slouch, D-Lo can break down the older guard and work the pick-and-roll with Towns. How Giannis handles that matchup will be key, considering no one is back in the post should KAT stretch the floor.

Prediction


I think the Bucks ultimately win this one, but Minnesota will take advantage of the Milwaukee injuries and keep it close. The Edwards-Middleton matchup is also going to be fun. At the end of the day, Giannis does just enough down the stretch for a narrow win. Bucks by 5

Betting trends


The Timberwolves are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after being outrebounded by 15 or more the previous game.

Minnesota is 21-47 straight up on the road in the past three seasons.

Milwaukee is 27-24 ATS off a road win in the past three seasons.

Projected starting lineup


Timberwolves:
PG: D’Angelo Russell
SG: Anthony Edwards
SF:
Josh Okogie
PF:
Jaden McDaniels
C:
Karl-Anthony Towns

Milwaukee:
PG: George Hill
SG: Grayson Allen
SF:
Khris Middleton
PF:
Pat Connaughton
C:
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Key Injuries


Timberwolves: None

Bucks: PG Jrue Holiday (heel, day-to-day), PF Bobby Portis (hamstring, out), C Brook Lopez (back, questionable), SG Donte DiVincenzo (ankle, out)

Statistical leaders


Timberwolves:
Points: Karl-Anthony Towns -- 29.0
Rebounds: Karl-Anthony Towns -- 9.3
Assists: D’Angelo Russell -- 4.0
Blocks: Karl-Anthony Towns -- 2.3
Steals: Josh Okogie -- 1.7

Bucks:
Points: Giannis Antetokounmpo -- 24.5
Rebounds: Giannis Antetokounmpo -- 10.5
Assists: Giannis Antetokounmpo -- 6.5
Blocks: Giannis Antetokounmpo -- 1.8
Steals: Khris Middleton -- 1.5

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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