Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets Prediction, Preview and Odds - 01/16/2026

Game Time: 9:30 pm ET, Friday, January 16, 2026

Venue:  Toyota Center, Houston, TX

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves +3.5, Rockets -3.5; Over/Under:  223.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves +3.5, Rockets -3.5; Over/Under:  223.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves +3.5, Rockets -3.5; Over/Under:  224.5 points

Minnesota Timberwolves:  27-14 (3rd place, Northwest Division)

Houston Rockets:  23-14 (2nd place, Southeast Division)

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Minnesota Timberwolves:  7-3 last 10

Houston Rockets:  6-4 last 10

The Timberwolves are entering this game with a 27-14 record overall this season and they are 12-8 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with wins coming against the San Antonio Spurs and the Milwaukee Bucks. Julius Randle led the team in points in that game with 29 while Bones Hyland was next on the team with 23 points. Donte DiVincenzo led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Julius Randle led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 59.8% from the field, 52.4% from 3-point range, and 58.3% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 120.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 114.6 PPG against them. The Timberwolves have an ATS record of 18-23 this season and their O/U record is 20-21.

The Rockets are entering this game with a 23-14 record overall this season and they are 12-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Chicago Bulls, but this is also the 2nd game of a back-to-back for them with their game against the Oklahoma City Thunder still to be played on Thursday night. In their game against the Bulls, Kevin Durant led the team in points in that game with 28 while Alperen Şengün and Amen Thompson each were next on the team with 23 points. Alperen Şengün led the team in assists in that game with 11 while Kevin Durant led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 51.1% from the field, 29.2% from 3-point range, and 75.9% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 117.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 110.8 PPG against them. The Rockets have an ATS record of 18-19 this season and their O/U record is 19-17-1.

The current betting odds have the Timberwolves listed as a 3.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Timberwolves have looked good in their games this season with their 27-14 record overall which has them right in the top half of the West. They have been a good road team too with their 12-8 road record this season. Meanwhile, the Rockets have looked good in their games this season with their 23-14 record overall which has them in the top half of the West. They have looked great on their home court too with their 12-2 home record this year. The Rockets were one of the best teams in the West last season and even though they aren't near the top of the West at the moment, they have the potential to be one of the best teams in the West with the addition of Kevin Durant. He has helped their offense a lot this season and the Rockets have also looked good lately as they are 6-4 in their last 10 games, but this isn't a great situation for them. The Timberwolves have been rolling in their games lately, going 7-3 in their last 10 games, and they have some momentum on their side with 2 wins in a row now. They also have the potential to be one of the best teams in the West this year since they have been a force in the West over the last few years, and lately they have been in a groove. The Rockets aren't in a great situation here either, playing this game on a back-to-back so they won't have the rest advantage, and they have a really tough game against the Thunder on Thursday night that they are going to put a lot into winning. The Timberwolves have been starting to roll now over the last few weeks and they can take advantage of the Rockets on a tough back-to-back here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Timberwolves to cover the spread in this game. 

Timberwolves Rockets Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Friday, January 16, 2026 (9:30 pm ET start time) is Timberwolves 116 Rockets 111.

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Minnesota Timberwolves: 5-9 ATS off a road blowout win by 20 points or more. 8-18 1H ATS off an upset win as a road underdog. 19-25 1H ATS against Southwest division opponents. 30-17 OVER against Southwest division opponents.

Houston Rockets: 37-21 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. 39-28 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game. 28-18 OVER against Northwest division opponents. 

Minnesota Timberwolves:  A. Edwards (SG) Day To Day - Foot. T. Shannon Jr. (SG) Day To Day - Foot.

Houston Rockets:  D. Finney-Smith (PF) Out - Ankle. T. Eason (PF) Out - Ankle. F. VanVleet (PG) Out For Season - ACL.

“Phenomenal effort by our guys, pace, physicality, quickness of decision-making, super sharp, all over the place.” - Chris Finch after his team’s win against the Bucks in their game on Tuesday.

“It was big. Great to see him stay confident, stay aggressive and not pass those up. And he was rewarded for that.” - Ime Udoka on Jabari Smith Jr after his team’s win against the Bulls in their game on Tuesday.

PG Donte DiVincenzo

SG Anthony Edwards

SF Jaden McDaniels

PF Julius Randle

C Rudy Gobert

PG Amen Thompson

SG Kevin Durant

SF Josh Okogie

PF Jabari Smith Jr.

C Alperen Sengun

PPG: Anthony Edwards (28.9)

APG: Julius Randle (5.7)

Reb/G: Rudy Gobert (11.4)

PPG: Kevin Durant (26.1)

APG: Alperen Sengun (6.6)

Reb/G: Alperen Sengun (8.9)

Coaches:

Minnesota Timberwolves: Chris Finch (6th season)

Houston Rockets: Ime Udoka (3rd season)