Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/12/2025

Game Time: 10:00 pm ET, Monday, May 12, 2025

Venue:  Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves -5.5, Warriors +5.5; Over/Under:  199.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves -5, Warriors +5; Over/Under:  200 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves -5.5, Warriors +5.5; Over/Under:  199.5 points

Minnesota Timberwolves:  49-33 (3rd place, Northwest Division)

Golden State Warriors:  48-34 (3rd place, Pacific Division)

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Minnesota Timberwolves:  8-2 last 10

Golden State Warriors:  5-5 last 10

The Timberwolves are entering the playoffs with a 49-33 record overall this season and they were 24-17 in their road games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with wins coming against the Golden State Warriors twice in a row. Anthony Edwards led the team in points in that game with 36 while Julius Randle was next on the team with 24 points. Julius Randle led the team in assists in that game with 12 while Rudy Gobert led the team in rebounds with 13. They were 43.9% from the field, 38.2% from 3-point range, and 81% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 114.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.3 PPG against them. The Timberwolves have an ATS record of 44-45-1 this season and their O/U record is 47-43.

The Warriors are entering the playoffs with a 48-34 record overall this season and they were 24-17 in their home games where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak with losses coming against the Minnesota Timberwolves twice in a row. Jimmy Butler led the team in points in that game with 33 while Jonathan Kuminga was next on the team with 30 points. Jimmy Butler led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Brandin Podziemski led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 43.2% from the field, 43.5% from 3-point range, and 81% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 113.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 110.5 PPG against them. The Warriors have an ATS record of 46-44-3 this season and their O/U record is 46-47.

The current betting odds have the Timberwolves listed as a 5.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 4 of a 7 game series between the 6th seeded Timberwolves and the 7th seeded Warriors from the Western Conference for the 2nd round of the NBA playoffs. The Timberwolves are leading this series 2-1 after winning game 3 on the road. The Timberwolves took a 2-1 series lead with a 102-97 win over the Warriors in the 3rd game of this series and the Warriors haven't looked great in the last 2 games now. The Warriors started this series very strong with a road win in game 1 and took the home advantage in this series right away, but they also lost Steph Curry in that game and it has been all downhill since then. They have lost 2 games in a row now without Curry in the lineup and their offense has struggled a lot in these games. Jimmy Butler played great in game 3 and got a lot of help from Kuminga too, but that still wasn't enough for them to hang onto a lead when they were pretty much leading that game all night. It is clear that Butler can't do it by himself so as long as Curry is out of the lineup for the Warriors, they really don't have much of a shot to beat the Timberwolves. The Timberwolves are starting to roll now with momentum from their 2 wins in a row and they will continue to take advantage of the Warriors without Curry in the lineup. The best way to place a bet here is on the Timberwolves to cover the spread in this game. 

Timberwolves Warriors Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Monday, May 12, 2025 (10:00 pm ET start time) is Timberwolves 110 Warriors 98.

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Minnesota Timberwolves: 6-3 ATS when leading in a playoff series. 21-12 ATS on the road against Pacific division opponents. 23-15 ATS on the road when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%). 14-6 OVER when the total is 200 to 209.5.

Golden State Warriors: 0-3 ATS in the 4th game of a playoff series. 12-18 ATS at home off a home loss. 18-28 1H ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent. 20-11 OVER at home off a home loss. 

Minnesota Timberwolves:  None.

Golden State Warriors:  S. Curry (PG) Out - Hamstring.

“We need it all. We needed everything from Julius, his hustle plays. Sometimes he does a great job of just kind of chasing down rebounds and stuff like this. We needed it all." - Chris Finch after his team’s win against the Warriors in game 3 of this series on Saturday.

“Obviously with Steph out there, he demands two to three bodies when he’s out there on the floor. When he’s not, there’s no room for error. You can’t make mistakes. You can’t turn the ball over. You can’t give back all of those things. And then you’ve got to take the right shots." - Jimmy Butler after their loss against the Timberwolves in game 3 of this series on Saturday.

PG Mike Conley

SG Anthony Edwards

SF Jaden McDaniels

PF Julius Randle

C Rudy Gobert

PG Brandin Podziemski

SG Moses Moody

SF Buddy Hield

PF Jimmy Butler

C Draymond Green

PPG: A. Edwards (27.6)

APG: J. Randle (4.7)

Reb/G: R. Gobert (10.9)

PPG: S. Curry (24.5)

APG: S. Curry (6)

Reb/G: K. Looney (6.1)

Coaches:

Minnesota Timberwolves: Chris Finch (5th season)

Golden State Warriors: Steve Kerr (11th season)