Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/16/2023

Game Time: 10:30 pm ET, Sunday, April 16, 2023

Venue:  Ball Arena, Denver, CO

Where to Watch:  TNT

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves +7.5, Nuggets -7.5; Over/Under:  225 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves +7.5, Nuggets -7.5; Over/Under:  224.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Timberwolves +7.5, Nuggets -7.5; Over/Under:  224.5 points

Minnesota Timberwolves:  42-40 (2nd place, Northwest Division)

Denver Nuggets:  53-29 (1st place, Northwest Division)

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Minnesota Timberwolves:  6-4 last 10

Denver Nuggets:  5-5 last 10

The Timberwolves finished the regular season with a 42-40 record overall and they were 20-21 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a win against the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last game. Karl-Anthony Towns led the team in points in that game with 28 while Rudy Gobert was next on the team with 21 points. Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Anthony Edwards each led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Karl-Anthony Towns led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 51.8% from the field, 40.6% from 3-point range, and 80.8% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 115.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 115.8 PPG against them. The Timberwolves have an ATS record of 42-42 this season and their O/U record is 39-45.

The Nuggets finished the regular season with a 53-29 record overall and they were 34-7 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a win against the Sacramento Kings in their last game. Bruce Brown Jr. led the team in points in that game with 21 while Zeke Nnaji was next on the team with 18 points. Ish Smith led the team in assists in that game with 9 while DeAndre Jordan and Thomas Bryant each led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 50% from the field, 25% from 3-point range, and 72% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 115.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 112.5 PPG against them. The Nuggets have an ATS record of 44-37-1 this season and their O/U record is 38-43-1.

The current betting odds have the Nuggets listed as a 7.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 1 of a 7-game series between the 1st seeded Nuggets and the 8th seeded Timberwolves for the 1st round of the playoffs in the NBA Western Conference. The Nuggets finished the regular season with a 53-29 record overall making them the best team in the West this year and one of the best teams in the entire NBA. They have been great in their home games all season with their 34-7 home record and they are going to be well rested for this game after having the week off and resting their injured players. They will have most of their starters back healthy for this game and will be looking to make a statement on their home court with this 1st game of the series. The Timberwolves were only 42-40 overall this season and they weren't great in road games either with their 20-21 road record. They also had to play in the play-in tournament just to get to this series, losing in their 1st game to the Lakers but beating the Thunder on Friday night. They have been dealing with issues between players though and are still missing one of their key starters while the Nuggets are going to be healthier and ready to go with the rest they have had. The best way to place a bet here is on the Nuggets to cover the spread in this game. 

Timberwolves Nuggets Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Sunday, April 16, 2023 (10:30 pm ET start time) is Nuggets 120 Timberwolves 107.

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Minnesota Timberwolves: 26-18 ATS as an underdog. 18-6 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent. 16-6 UNDER off a home win. 14-5 UNDER revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more.

Denver Nuggets: 21-40 ATS in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5. 2-9 ATS off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog. 8-2 UNDER after allowing 100 points or less. 6-0 UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or less.

Minnesota Timberwolves:  J. McDaniels (SF) Out indefinitely - Hand. N. Reid (C) Out indefinitely - Wrist.

Denver Nuggets:  J. Green (SF) Ques Sun - Face. K. Caldwell-Pope (SG) Ques Sun - Illness. A. Gordon (PF) Ques Sun - Shoulder. M. Porter Jr. (PF) Ques Sun - Heel. J. Murray (SG) Prob Sun - Thumb. N. Jokic (C) Ques Sun - Calf. C. Gillespie (PG) Late April - Leg.

“It was nice not to give back a lead, which we’ve done quite a bit. The guys were super locked-in. They knew what it was going to take.” - Chris Finch after his team’s win against the Thunder in their game on Friday in the play-in tournament.

“To outscore them 83-52 after the first quarter with a lot of guys that haven’t played much this year was fun to watch. Bruce was begging to go back in the game. I said ‘You’re not going back in the game, sorry.’ That’s a great problem to have.” - Michael Malone after his team’s win against the Kings in their final game of the regular season. 

PG Mike Conley

SG Anthony Edwards

SF Kyle Anderson

PF Karl-Anthony Towns

C Rudy Gobert

PG Jamal Murray

SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

SF Michael Porter Jr.

PF Aaron Gordon

C Nikola Jokic

PPG: A. Edwards (24.6)

APG: M. Conley (6.7)

Reb/G: R. Gobert (11.6)

PPG: N. Jokic (24.5)

APG: N. Jokic (9.8)

Reb/G: N. Jokic (11.8)

Coaches:

Minnesota Timberwolves: Chris Finch (3rd season)

Denver Nuggets: Michael Malone (8th season)