Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Purdue Boilermakers Prediction, Odds and Preview - 10/02/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 2, 2021
Venue:  Ross–Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN 
Where to Watch:  BTN


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Minnesota +2.5, Purdue -2.5; Over/Under:  47.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Minnesota +2, Purdue -2; Over/Under:  47.5 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Minnesota +2.5, Purdue -2.5; Over/Under:  47.5 points

Season Record

Minnesota Golden Gophers:  2-2 (4th place, Big Ten West)
Purdue Boilermakers:  3-1 (2nd place, Big Ten West)
Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Larry Ness has a CFB/NFL start to 2021: 26-18, +$5,810. Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.


Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Purdue Boilermakers Game Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
Minnesota Golden Gophers:  lost at home on Sep. 25 against the Bowling Green Falcons 14-10.
Purdue Boilermakers:  won at home on Sep. 25 against the Illinois Fighting Illini 13-9.

Minnesota Golden Gophers Analysis

Minnesota is coming into this college football game with a 2-2 record overall and they are 1-0 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 2nd conference matchup of the year and they are already 0-1 in conference games this season. Their 2 wins this season came against the Miami-OH RedHawks and the Colorado Buffaloes while their 2 losses came against the Ohio State Buckeyes back in their season opener and the Bowling Green Falcons in their last game. Tanner Morgan played an awful game in their last one as he completed 5/13 passes for 59 yards and 2 interceptions. Treyson Potts had another big day in the run game as usual as he led the team in rushing with 141 yards on 27 carries. No one else really did anything on the ground in that game. The receiving corps had a very quiet day as Daniel Jackson led the team in receiving with 25 yards on 1 reception. Overall, the offense was very bad in this game, especially the passing game, as they only managed to put up 10 points in a bad loss to a MAC team and they were at home for it. Mariano Sori-Marin led the defense with 5 solo tackles, 3 assisted ones, and the 1 interception for his team. Boye Mafe led the defense in sacks with 2 while Thomas Rush and DeAngelo Carter both had 1 each as well. They have scored 102 points in their first 4 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 85 points against them. Their offense is averaging 378.7 YPG while their defense is allowing 299.7 YPG.

Purdue Boilermakers Analysis

Purdue is coming into this game with a 3-1 record overall and they are 2-0 in home games this college football season where they will be in this game. This will be their 2nd conference matchup of the season on their schedule and they are already 1-0 in conference games this year. Their 1 loss on the season came against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish while their 3 wins came against the Oregon State Beavers, the UConn Huskies and Illinois in their last game. Jack Plummer did not have a good game as the starting quarterback in their last as he completed 12/21 passes for 95 yards, zero touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Aidan O'Connell had to step in and he played alright completing 12/19 passes for 182 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions, still not the best performance. Their run game was very weak in that game as Dylan Downing led the team in rushing with 39 yards on 10 carries. Milton Wright led the wide receivers in receiving with 88 yards on 7 receptions while Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen was right behind him with 77 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Marvin Grant led the defense with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted ones in that game. No one on the defense had an interception but George Karlaftis led the team in sacks with 1 while Branson Deen and DaMarcus Mitchell both had 1 combined sack. The Boilers have scored 105 points in their first 4 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 57 points against them. Their offense is averaging 437 YPG while their defense is allowing 309.7 YPG.


Minnesota vs Purdue Prediction

This Purdue vs Minnesota game has Minnesota as a slight underdog here after a really bad loss to Bowling Green State last week. Minnesota was only able to put up 10 points in that game but their defense still held up well only allowing 14 points. Minnesota has played well on offense in their other games and they will be looking to bounce back in this game now that conference matchups have started as they will see the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the next week after. Purdue struggled to beat Illinois at home in their last game and they have only scored 13 points in each of their last 2 games. They also might be looking ahead in this one to the number 5 Iowa Hawkeyes they will be facing the week after. The best bet to place here is on Minnesota to bounce back with an upset win here.
Minnesota Purdue Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 2, 2021 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Minnesota 27 Purdue 17.
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NCAAF Betting Trends

Minnesota Golden Gophers: 77-65 ATS in road games. 54-41 ATS after playing a non-conference game.
Purdue Boilermakers: 19-31 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders. 48-54 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game.

Key Injuries

Minnesota Golden Gophers:  M. Ibrahim (RB) out for season - Leg injury.
Purdue Boilermakers:  D. Bell (WR) day-to-day - Concussion. S. James (RB) out for season - Eligibility injury. C. Trice (CB) Out indefinitely - Ankle injury.

Players to Watch

Minnesota Golden Gophers: Treyson Potts is one player to watch in this game. He leads his team in rushing yards and in touchdowns and he is coming off of another massive game in the run game despite his team’s awful offense in that game. He is the bright point on this offense so look for him to carry the team in this one.
Purdue Boilermakers: Davis Bell is one player to watch here. He leads his team in receiving yards and in touchdowns. No matter who is throwing the ball to him he will find ways to make plays so look for him to make some catches in the end zone in this one.

Notable Quotes

"Give Bowling Green a lot of credit. I know how excited they are, and they deserve it and they earned it. We did not deserve to win that football game whatsoever." - P.J. Fleck after losing to BGSU.
"We just felt like because we became one-dimensional, we think Aidan is our most accurate thrower and that's not a knock on Jack. He stands in there. he's poised, he played to the end and he helped us find a way to win." - Jeff Brohm on Aidan O’Connell strapping in to finish the game at quarterback against Illinois.

Starting Lineups

Minnesota Golden Gophers
WR Autman-Bell, Chris 
WR Jackson, Daniel 
WR Brown-Stephens, Mike 
TE Kieft, Ko 
QB Morgan, Tanner 
RB Potts, Trey 
Purdue Boilermakers
WR Sheffield, TJ 
WR Wright, Milton 
WR Bell, David 
TE Durham, Payne 
QB Plummer, Jack 
RB Horvath, Zander 

Statistical Leaders

Minnesota Golden Gophers
Passing: T. Morgan (540)
Rushing: T. Potts (474)
Receiving: D. Wright (169)
Touchdowns: T. Potts (5)
Sacks: B. Mafe (4)
Tackles: M. Sori-Marin (15)
Purdue Boilermakers
Passing: J. Plummer (840)
Rushing: D. Downing (131)
Receiving: D. Bell (319)
Touchdowns: D. Bell (3)
Sacks: G. Karlaftis (1.5)
Tackles: M. Grant (18)
Minnesota Golden Gophers: P.J. Fleck (5th season)
Purdue Boilermakers: Jeff Brohm (5th season)

Weather Forecast

75 degrees F partly cloudy, 63% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 7 mph wind speeds N.

Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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