by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Oct 17, 2023
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 21, 2023
Venue: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
Where to Watch: NBC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Minnesota +3.5, Iowa -3.5; Over/Under: 32.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Minnesota +3.5, Iowa -3.5; Over/Under: 32.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Minnesota +3.5, Iowa -3.5; Over/Under: 32.5 points
Season Record
Minnesota Golden Gophers: 3-3 (1-2) (4th place, Big Ten West)
Iowa Hawkeyes: 6-1 (3-1) (1st place, Big Ten West)
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Recent Form
Minnesota Golden Gophers: lost their last game at home against the Michigan Wolverines 52-10.
Iowa Hawkeyes: won their last game on the road against the Wisconsin Badgers 15-6.
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Iowa Hawkeyes Preview and Analysis
Minnesota is entering this game with a 3-3 record overall and they have a 1-2 record in their conference games too. They are 3-1 in their home games, 0-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Michigan 52-10. Athan Kaliakmanis was the starting QB and he completed 5/15 passes for 52 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Zach Evans led the team in rushing yards with 45. Daniel Jackson led the receivers with 34 receiving yards on 2 receptions and 1 TD. Tyler Nubin led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while no one on the defense recorded a sack in that one. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
Iowa is entering this game with a 6-1 record overall and they have a 3-1 record in their conference games too. They are 4-0 in their home games, 2-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Wisconsin 15-6. Deacon Hill was the starting QB and he completed 6/14 passes for 37 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Leshon Williams led the team in rushing yards with 174 and 1 TD. Erick All led the receivers with 19 receiving yards on 2 receptions. Jay Higgins led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 6 assisted tackles while Yahya Black led the defense in sacks with 1. Sebastian Castro came away with the only interception for them in that game.
Minnesota vs Iowa Prediction
The current betting odds have Iowa listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Iowa has been having a great season, they may have lost their starting QB to injury but Cade McNamara was already having a rough season yet they are still 6-1 overall even without him in their last game against Wisconsin. Iowa has one of the best defenses in the Big Ten which has been keeping them in games all year and coming up with big plays to help them score. Meanwhile, Minnesota was expected to do a lot more this year but they have been struggling with their 3-3 record overall and 1-2 conference record. Minnesota does have a good defense that they can lean on here against this bad Iowa offense, but Iowa has a much better defense while Minnesota also has a bad offense that is going to struggle a lot in this game. Iowa also has a very good home advantage and they will be focused here after that Wisconsin win now that their path to the Big Ten Championship is clear. The best way to place a bet here is on Iowa to cover the spread in this game.
Minnesota Iowa Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 21, 2023 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Iowa 17 Minnesota 6.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Minnesota Golden Gophers: 7-20 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. 1-7 ATS in a road game where the total is 42 or less. 4-8 ATS after a loss by 35 or more points. 17-5 UNDER off 3 or more consecutive overs.
Iowa Hawkeyes: 29-17 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less. 10-1 ATS after gaining 75 or less passing yards in the last game. 22-12 UNDER in all games. 15-8 UNDER when the total is 42 or less. 7-1 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread.
Key Injuries
Minnesota Golden Gophers: D. Taylor (RB) Ques Sat - Leg. C. Autman-Bell (WR) Ques Sat - Knee. L. Brockington (WR) Ques Sat - Leg. P. Walsh (TE) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. J. Tinnen (LB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. L. Finnessy (DL) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. C. Lindenberg (LB) Out indefinitely - Leg. J. Ruschmeyer (OL) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. D. LeCaptain (LB) out for season - Undisclosed. D. Jefferies (DL) out for season - Undisclosed.
Iowa Hawkeyes: E. All (TE) Doub Sat - Knee. D. Lee (DB) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. A. Ostrenga (TE) Ques Sat - Undisclosed. C. McNamara (QB) out for season - Knee. A. Fahey (OL) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. R. Osgood (WR) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. J. Bostick (WR) Out indefinitely - Foot. J. Labas (QB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. L. Lachey (TE) out for season - Ankle.
Notable Quotes
“They’re one of the deepest teams, one of the best teams, one of the biggest teams, fastest teams, strongest teams, and they do not make mistakes. They are truly like a boa constrictor, and they do not beat themselves.” - P.J. Fleck after his team’s loss against Michigan in their last game.
“This game was going to come down to physicality. I feel we came out there and did that. We did just that.” - Sebastian Castro after their win against Wisconsin in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Minnesota Golden Gophers
WR Autman-Bell, Chris
WR Jackson, Daniel
WR Crooms Jr., Corey
TE Spann-Ford, Brevyn
QB Kaliakmanis, Athan
RB Tyler, Sean
Iowa Hawkeyes
WR Vines, Diante
WR Anderson, Seth
WR Ragaini, Nico
TE All, Erick
QB Hill, Deacon
RB Johnson, Kaleb
FB Large, Hayden
Statistical Leaders
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Passing: A. Kaliakmanis (797)
Rushing: D. Taylor (532)
Receiving: D. Jackson (286)
Touchdowns: D. Jackson (5)
Iowa Hawkeyes
Passing: C. McNamara (505)
Rushing: L. Williams (459)
Receiving: E. All (299)
Touchdowns: E. All (3)
Coaches:
Minnesota Golden Gophers: P.J. Fleck (7th season)
Iowa Hawkeyes: Kirk Ferentz (25th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
