by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Oct 10, 2022
Time: Noon ET
Venue: Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL
Where to watch: Big Ten Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Minnesota -3.5
FanDuel: Check back later
BetMGM: Minnesota -3.5
Caesars: Minnesota -3.5
Season record
Minnesota: 4-1 (1-1 Big Ten)
No. 24 Illinois: 5-1 (2-1 Big Ten)
We're about to hit the fun part of college football season where games start getting a little tighter, performances start to become a little more noteworthy, and times at the books are fun for all. You don't believe me? Look at our own Kyle Hunter posting a 25-7-0 run over the last month in college football. That's even with all of the upsets and everything in between. Week 7 is upon us and we're near the point where college football is every day. You want to get back into the swing of things with this? Make sure to follow our Best Bets page and see what our champion handicappers are up to at bigal.com. Who knows? With a little bit of faith in us, you can be like Kyle, or even have as good a run as Sean Murphy at 32-16-1 over the last 30 days. The choices are yours!
Minnesota - Illinois preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Minnesota: lost 20-10 vs. Purdue
Illinois: won 9-6 vs. Iowa
You can feel the excitement with Big Ten football. Or in this case, you can feel the boredom because offense is sometimes non-existent and there is an endless dark void awaiting you at the end of every Big Ten game. Alas, that’s what happened last week with the Illinois Fighting Illini, but that’s why they’re now ranked No. 24 in the country. Now comes the biggest test for the newly ranked Illinois program when it takes on the Minnesota Golden Gophers coming off a bye week in Champaign.
You can feel the excitement with Big Ten football. Or in this case, you can feel the boredom because offense is sometimes non-existent and there is an endless dark void awaiting you at the end of every Big Ten game. Alas, that’s what happened last week with the Illinois Fighting Illini, but that’s why they’re now ranked No. 24 in the country. Now comes the biggest test for the newly ranked Illinois program when it takes on the Minnesota Golden Gophers coming off a bye week in Champaign.
Illinois has not had this kind of fun since that Rose Bowl team over a decade ago, but it’s surely fun to see this team have some sort of success under Bret Bielema. It’s the best start for Illinois since going 6-0 in 2011 and it’s the first time the Illini have wins over Iowa and Wisconsin in the same season since before most of us were born, 1989. But honestly, we were all losers for watching that game unfold, a 9-6 win for Illinois to take down Iowa. If not for Matthew Bailey’s interception at the end, it might have turned into a free-for-all for Illinois in a game that had no touchdowns.
That’s why there’s probably a statue of kicker Fabrizio Pinton, a walk-on backup kicker, going outside the stadium as we speak. Pinton made all three kicks in place of injured starter Caleb Griffin. Pinton was told at kickoff that he’d be kicking, and he delivered.
“(Take) some deep breaths,” Pinton said. “Do your reps in the nets. I felt good. I just went out there and (kicked).”
Illinois has reeled off four straight wins since losing 23-20 at Indiana a month ago, and it’s been because of a strong defense and a balanced offense. Quarterback Tommy DeVito has been a strong presence under center but he left in the first quarter because of a left leg injury. Artur Sitkowski came in for relief and threw for 74 yards and an interception. The star of the offense continues to be running back Chase Brown, who ran for 146 yards on 31 carries, the seventh such 100-yard game for Brown this season.
"I knew Chase would kind of grind it out, wear them down and make a couple big plays," Bielema said. "And that's exactly how it played out."
For Illinois to even get to this point has been a success, especially knowing they’re on win from reaching bowl status. But this week won’t be an easy game. The Illini welcome a Golden Gophers team that had a week off and is coming off one of the more frustrating losses they’ve had in a while. Minnesota lost 20-10 at home to Purdue after holding their last four opponents to 24 points combined. Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan threw for 257 yards but was picked off three times. The Gophers also didn’t have running back Mo Ibrahim as he was rehabbing from an injury. That led to Minnesota combining for 47 yards on 26 carries.
"Everything's still in front of us," said Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck. "We have to get better. Listen, nobody's perfect. Even if you have a perfect record, you're still not perfect."
That loss pushed Minnesota from No. 21 to unranked in short order. Ibrahim should be back for this game, which will help immensely against the stout Illinois defense. Whether that translates to the road in what will be a hostile environment is anyone’s guess.
Prediction
I’m not one to downplay Fleck off a bye week. He will have his guys ready to go for what should be a huge bounce-back week for the Gophers. They’re laying 3.5 to start and if it becomes a defensive battle, I like the more explosive offense. Nonetheless, this should be a fantastic running back matchup. Minnesota by 7
Betting trends
Minnesota is 16-9 ATS in its last 25 games overall.
Minnesota is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games.
Minnesota is 9-3 ATS after consecutive conference games.
Illinois is 7-6 ATS in its last 13 home games.
Illinois is 10-4 ATS off an under in its last 14.
Statistical leaders
Minnesota:
Passing: Tanner Morgan -- 1,143 yards, 7 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Mohamed Ibrahim -- 567 yards, 8 TD
Receiving: Michael Brown-Stephens -- 233 yards
Illinois:
Passing: Tommy DeVito -- 1,163 yards, 9 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Chase Brown -- 879 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Pat Bryant -- 313 yards, 2 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Minnesota Golden Gophers - Illinois Fighting Illini prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
