Game Time: 10:00 PM ET, Monday, March 14th, 2022 

Venue:  Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah

Where to Watch: ESPN

DraftKings:  Spread:  Bucks -1.5

Fanduel:  Spread:  Bucks -2

BetMGM:  Spread: Bucks -1.5

Bucks: 42-26, 2nd place Eastern Conference

Jazz: 42-25, 4th place Western Conference

An NBA non-conference Matchup between two powerhouse teams.  The Bucks are 2nd place in the East and the Jazz aree 4th place in the West.  They have nearly identical records.  The Eastern Conference this season simply has more winning teams… and more teams that carry the threat of going all the way to the NBA Finals.  The Western Conference this season has less  winning teams, but stronger teams at the top of the conference.  In Fact the three winningest teams this season are the Phoenix Suns, the Memphis Grizzlies, and the Golden State Warriors… that could be because they play in a weaker conference or because they are better teams.  We will have to check the numbers and spread closely on this one to see which team is a great betting opportunity.  

The Milwaukee Bucks have won 7 of their last ten games.  They went 5-5 ATS during that stretch.  Last night the Bucks tipped their hat by losing to the struggling Golden State Warriors 122-109.  It was also a loss against the spread.  Giannis Antetokounmpo had his usual brilliant game with 31 points and 8 rebounds. SF Khris Middleton had a so-so game with 18 points and just 4 rebounds.  PG Jrue Holiday didn’t really show up.  Jrue logged just 13 points on 5-11 shooting.  The mountain that Giannis climbs every game to ensure a Bucks win is steep.  He has to do it all.  He certainly gets the usage rates to do it all… but the burden for winning should be on Middleton and Holiday.  If Giannis is good for somewhere around 30-12 per game then all he really needs is the other two of his Big Three to chip in an amount of points that would represent what they are massively overpaid to do.  PF Serge Ibaka was actually the 2nd best player for the Bucks in the loss with 15 points and 6 rebounds in 17 minutes… that should not happen.  Ibaka is a nice piece but when a team is looking for Ibaka to have big games in his 16th season… they aren’t looking in the right place.  The Bucks are a team that certainly can win a ring… they did last season.  They are the current champs.  The two missing ingredients are C Brook Lopez (who may be done for good) and SG Pat Connaughton (until late March) who are residing on the injury list. Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer was on thin ice last season before his team gave him a Championship… if the team regresses to where they fail to make the Eastern Conference Championship, Mike will again be on thin ice… if not packing up his office.  

The Utah Jazz have won 6 of their last ten games.  They went 2-7-1 ATS during the stretch.  Besides being a bad betting opportunity they are also a hard team to root for.  The Utah Jazz are perennial bridesmaids.  They never have their own wedding.  They never have their own day in the sun.  It’s hard to state that a team with two quality all-stars in SG Donovan Mitchell and C Rudy Gobert has trouble attracting free agents, but they do.  A free agent swingman that is looking for 10 million a year… will turn down that from the Jazz to take the mid-level exception from Miami or Los Angeles.  Salt Lake City is not an exciting city for any of these young millionaires and few of them will ever voluntarily go there.  Last night the Jazz beat the Sacramento Kings 134-125… in a completely expected outcome.  The game resulted in a Push and an Over. Rudy Gobert did not play in that game so the jazz were saved by SG Jordan Clarkson having a breakout 45 point game on 7-13 3-pointers and 8 for 8 from the foul line with some layups thrown in for fun.  His running mate actually was Bojan Bogdanovic who poured in 26 points on 7-16 shooting from the field and another 8 for 8 from the foul line.  The Jazz have pieces outside of their two stars… it’s just those pieces are as reliable as a broken clock… Clarkson averages 15 ppg and Bogdanovic averages 18 ppg… both are good, but both are defensively soft.. And both build those averages by occasionally having an offensive explosion… instead of reliably pouring in a set amount.  The Jazz are a good team.. They always seem to be, but they are rarely ever worth betting on.  If Gobert does not play against the Bucks?... The Jazz will be in deep trouble trying to defend against Giannis.  Pay close attention to both the spread and the injury report.  The one thing we know about Clarkson is that he won’t have a second 45 point game in a row.

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The Bucks are 42-26 on the season, but 31-37 ATS.  They have logged 34 Overs and 34 Unders.  They are 18-14 in road games.

The Jazz are 42-25 on the season, but 28-36-3 ATS.  They have notched 31 Overs, 35 Unders, and 1 push.  They have notched 31 Overs, 35 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 24-10 in home games.

The Bucks are 3rd in scoring with 114.5 ppg, 2nd in rebounds with 46.8 per game, and 13th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8. They rank 16th on defense while allowing 110.7 ppg from opponents.

The Jazz are 5th in scoring with 113.9 ppg, 5th in rebounds with 46.3 per game, and 28th in AST/TO ratio with 1.6.  On defense they rank 10th while holding opponents to 107.5 ppg… A word of warning: that defensive ranking only holds water if Rudy Gobert is in the lineup.  The Jazz are a defensive mystery in games that Gobert doesn’t play.  Case in point… They gave up 125 points to the Sacramento KINGS without Gobert.

Our prediction for Monday, March 14th is…. Bucks 128 - Jazz 113

The Bucks will roll the Jazz if Gobert does not play.  He sat out one game with a left foot sprain.  I doubt the Jazz will hurry a big man with foot trouble back onto the court!  That is a recipe for long term disaster.  This prediction is made entirely on Gobert not playing.  If he is announced back into the lineup the spread will magically swing.  Watch the spread and bet as close to  game time as you can. 

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Utah is 32-16 ATS versus Milwaukee since 1996.
Utah is 17-7 ATS versus Milwaukee at Utah since 1996.
Utah is 5-0 ATS versus Milwaukee the last 3 season.

Jazz: Udoka Azubuike (ankle) Quest ** C Rudy Gobert (foot) Out ** 

Bucks: Sg Pat Connaughton (finger) Out ** C Brook Lopez (back) Out 

Bucks: SF Khris Middleton, PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, C Bobby Portis, SG Grayson Allen, PG Jrue Holiday

Jazz:  PF Royce O’Neale, SF Bojan Bogdanovic, C Hassan Whiteside, PG Danuel House Jr, SG Donovan Mitchell

Bucks

Points: Giannis Antetokounmpo 29.7

Assists: Jrue Holiday 6.7

Rebounds: Giannis Antetokounmpo 11.5

Steals: Jrue Holiday 1.5

Blocks: Brook Lopez 3.0

Jazz

Points: Donovan Mitchell 25.5

Assists: Donovan Mitchell 5.4

Rebounds: Rudy Gobert 14.7

Steals: Donovan Mitchell 1.6

Blocks: Rudy Gobert 2.2

Bucks: Mike Budenholzer

Jazz: Quin Snyder