Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/24/2023

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Monday, April 24, 2023

Venue:  Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

Where to Watch:  TNT

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Bucks -4, Heat +4; Over/Under:  217.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Bucks -4.5, Heat +4.5; Over/Under:  217.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Bucks -4.5, Heat +4.5; Over/Under:  217.5 points

Milwaukee Bucks:  58-24 (1st place, Central Division)

Miami Heat:  44-38 (1st place, Southeast Division)

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Milwaukee Bucks:  5-5 last 10

Miami Heat:  7-3 last 10

The Bucks finished the regular season with a 58-24 record overall and they were 26-15 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a loss against the Miami Heat in their last game. Khris Middleton led the team in points in that game with 23 while Jrue Holiday was next on the team with 19 points. Khris Middleton led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Bobby Portis led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 44.7% from the field, 38.5% from 3-point range, and 66.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 116.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 113.3 PPG against them. The Bucks have an ATS record of 44-35-6 this season and their O/U record is 45-40.

The Heat finished the regular season with a 44-38 record overall and they were 27-14 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a win against the Milwaukee Bucks in their last game. Jimmy Butler led the team in points in that game with 30 while Duncan Robinson was next on the team with 20 points. Bam Adebayo led the team in assists in that game with 5 while Bam Adebayo and Caleb Martin each led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 53.6% from the field, 48.5% from 3-point range, and 88.2% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 109.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.8 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 33-51-3 this season and their O/U record is 44-43.

The current betting odds have the Bucks listed as a 4 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 4 of a 7-game series between the 1st seeded Bucks and the 8th seeded Heat for the 1st round of the playoffs in the NBA Eastern Conference. The Heat are entering this game with a 2-1 series lead after taking the 3rd game of this series at home. The Heat were a bit fortunate in that game as Giannis did not play due to the injury he has been dealing with but there is a good chance he plays in this game with his team down in the series and staring at a possible 3-1 deficit going back to Milwaukee. Even if he doesn't play here, the Bucks need to respond with a win of their own and they already have a win under their belt in this series without Giannis. The Heat have been better in their home games this season but the Bucks are still a really good road team and they will step up in this game as the number 1 seed in the East. Expect the Bucks, with or without Giannis, to step up here and even up the series in a must win game for them to avoid going back home down 3-1 in the series. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bucks to cover the spread in this game.

Bucks Heat Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Monday, April 24, 2023 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Bucks 116 Heat 107.

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Milwaukee Bucks: 11-3 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less. 11-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. 12-3 OVER off a road loss. 7-1 OVER after scoring 100 points or less. 

Miami Heat: 8-19 ATS off a home win. 16-26 ATS when the total is 210 to 219.5. 22-15 OVER after 3 or more consecutive overs. 15-8 OVER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5.

Milwaukee Bucks:  G. Antetokounmpo (SF) Ques Mon - Back. W. Matthews (SG) Ques Mon - Calf.

Miami Heat:  V. Oladipo (SG) Ques Mon - Knee. N. Jovic (SF) Out indefinitely - Back. T. Herro (SG) Early June - Hand.

“We need to be better. Like I said, give them credit. They played well. We need to be better. We need to deal with a lot of things better. That'll be the challenge going into the next game.” - Mike Budenholzer after his team’s loss against the Heat in their game on Saturday, game 3 of this series.

“I feel probably like how everybody feels. It was a great win, but when you see a player go down like that — especially a player like Vic who's gone through so much in the last three years ... that's definitely not a good feeling.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s win against the Bucks in their game on Saturday, game 3 of this series. 

PG Jrue Holiday

SG Grayson Allen

SF Khris Middleton

PF Giannis Antetokounmpo

C Brook Lopez

PG Gabe Vincent

SG Max Strus

SF Jimmy Butler

PF Kevin Love

C Bam Adebayo

PPG: G. Antetokounmpo (31.1)

APG: J. Holiday (7.4)

Reb/G: G. Antetokounmpo (11.8)

PPG: J. Butler (22.9)

APG: J. Butler (5.3)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (9.2)

Coaches:

Milwaukee Bucks: Mike Budenholzer (5th season)

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (15th season)