Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/22/2023

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, April 22, 2023

Venue:  Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Bucks -5.5, Heat +5.5; Over/Under:  219.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Bucks -5.5, Heat +5.5; Over/Under:  220.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Bucks -5.5, Heat +5.5; Over/Under:  220.5 points

Milwaukee Bucks:  58-24 (1st place, Central Division)

Miami Heat:  44-38 (1st place, Southeast Division)

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Milwaukee Bucks:  6-4 last 10

Miami Heat:  6-4 last 10

The Bucks finished the regular season with a 58-24 record overall and they were 26-15 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a win against the Miami Heat in their last game. Brook Lopez led the team in points in that game with 25 while Jrue Holiday was next on the team with 24 points. Jrue Holiday led the team in assists in that game with 11 while Bobby Portis led the team in rebounds with 15. They were 53.5% from the field, 51% from 3-point range, and 87.5% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 116.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 113.3 PPG against them. The Bucks have an ATS record of 44-34-6 this season and their O/U record is 44-40.

The Heat finished the regular season with a 44-38 record overall and they were 27-14 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off of a loss against the Milwaukee Bucks in their last game. Jimmy Butler led the team in points in that game with 25 while Bam Adebayo was next on the team with 18 points. Caleb Martin led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Cody Zeller led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 53.6% from the field, 44.4% from 3-point range, and 69.6% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 109.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.8 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 32-51-3 this season and their O/U record is 43-43.

The current betting odds have the Bucks listed as a 5.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 3 of a 7-game series between the 1st seeded Bucks and the 8th seeded Heat for the 1st round of the playoffs in the NBA Eastern Conference. This series is all tied up 1-1 going into Miami after the Bucks won big on their home court in a game where they were missing Giannis. Now they go into Miami with Giannis still injured but there is a good chance he will play in these games as his team needs him badly. The series has been flipped now with the Heat taking game 1 so the Bucks need to respond with a road win of their own if they plan on advancing to the next round. The Bucks were the best team in the East this season with the best record but they also had the best record in the entire NBA. The Heat were a very good home team with their 27-14 home record this year, but the Bucks were just as good on the road with a 26-15 road record. The Bucks stepped up in a big way to win that 2nd game at home without Giannis but with the rest they will have for this game, Giannis should be back playing for them here and that will be a big boost as the Bucks look to flip the series once again by winning this road game and putting the pressure on Miami to win another road game. The Bucks ended the season with 2 losses in a row and then lost the 1st game of this series after a week of rest but the rust is gone now and they are going to step up in a big way here to take their first lead of the series. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bucks to cover the spread in this game. 

Bucks Heat Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Saturday, April 22, 2023 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Bucks 120 Heat 111.

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Milwaukee Bucks: 16-6 ATS as a road favorite. 25-15 ATS after playing a home game. 33-21 OVER off a home win by 10 points or more. 10-5 OVER when playing 6 or less games in 14 days.

Miami Heat: 15-26 ATS in home games. 16-26 ATS when the total is 220 to 229.5. 11-5 OVER after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better. 19-10 OVER after a blowout loss by 15 points or more.

Milwaukee Bucks:  G. Antetokounmpo (SF) Ques Sat - Back. W. Matthews (SG) Ques Sat - Calf.

Miami Heat:  N. Jovic (SF) Out indefinitely - Back. T. Herro (SG) Early June - Hand.

“We’ll continue to monitor him and expect for him to improve and still continue to be optimistic that soon he’ll be ready to play.” - Mike Budenholzer on the injury to Giannis after his team’s win against the Heat in their game on Wednesday, game 2 of this series. 

“They had some good, clean, easy looks in the beginning. And then once they got on a roll, they were hitting some tough step-backs, stuff at the end of the shot clock. Any time there was kind of a momentum shift, they seemed to knock down a big one.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s loss against the Bucks in their game on Wednesday, game 2 of this series. 

PG Jrue Holiday

SG Grayson Allen

SF Khris Middleton

PF Giannis Antetokounmpo

C Brook Lopez

PG Gabe Vincent

SG Duncan Robinson

SF Max Strus

PF Jimmy Butler 

C Bam Adebayo

PPG: G. Antetokounmpo (31.1)

APG: J. Holiday (7.4)

Reb/G: G. Antetokounmpo (11.8)

PPG: J. Butler (22.9)

APG: J. Butler (5.3)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (9.2)

Coaches:

Milwaukee Bucks: Mike Budenholzer (5th season)

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (15th season)