Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/28/2024

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Sunday, April 28, 2024

Venue:  Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN 

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Bucks +9.5, Pacers -9.5; Over/Under:  217.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Bucks +9.5, Pacers -9.5; Over/Under:  217.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Bucks +9.5, Pacers -9.5; Over/Under:  217.5 points

Milwaukee Bucks:  49-33 (1st place, Central Division)

Indiana Pacers:  47-35 (3rd place, Central Division)

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Milwaukee Bucks:  3-7 last 10

Indiana Pacers:  7-3 last 10

The Bucks are entering this game with a 49-33 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 18-22 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak with losses coming against the Indiana Pacers in their last 2 games. In their last game against the Pacers in game 3 of this series, Khris Middleton led the team in points in that game with 42 while Damian Lillard was next on the team with 28 points. Damian Lillard led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Bobby Portis Jr. led the team in rebounds with 18. They were 46.6% from the field, 32.3% from 3-point range, and 96.3% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 119 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 116.4 PPG against them. The Bucks have an ATS record of 37-47-1 this season and their O/U record is 42-42-1.

The Pacers are entering this game with a 47-35 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 26-15 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with wins coming against the Milwaukee Bucks in their last 2 games. In their last game against the Bucks in game 3 of this series, Myles Turner led the team in points in that game with 29 while Tyrese Haliburton was next on the team with 18 points. Tyrese Haliburton led the team in assists in that game with 16 while Tyrese Haliburton led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 42.9% from the field, 26.5% from 3-point range, and 75% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 123.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 120.2 PPG against them. The Pacers have an ATS record of 45-38-3 this season and their O/U record is 44-40-2.

The current betting odds have the Pacers listed as a 9.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 4 of a 7 game series between the 3rd seeded Bucks and the 6th seeded Pacers for Round 1 of the NBA Eastern Conference playoffs. The Pacers have a 2-1 series lead after winning game 3 of this series on their home court. The Pacers have looked a lot better on their home court this season with their 26-15 home record and that gives them a big advantage over the Bucks who have looked terrible in their road games this year with their 18-22 road record. The Pacers needed OT to win game 3 in this series but they were in control of that game the entire time since the Bucks needed a 2nd half comeback just to send the game to overtime. Middleton had a huge game for the Bucks too with over 40 points but he is unlikely to replicate that in the next game. Giannis will likely still be missing in this game which is a huge blow for the Bucks, but now they could be without Lillard too since he played through an injury in the last game. Without Lillard, the Bucks stand no chance against the Pacers on the road and even if he were to play in this game, the Pacers have shown many times this season that they can beat the Bucks with both Lillard and Giannis on the court. The Pacers have played their best at home all season and they will bring their best effort here knowing they have a chance to take a 3-1 series lead against a banged up Milwaukee team before going back on the road for game 5. The best way to place a bet here is on the Pacers to cover the spread in this game.

Bucks Pacers Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Sunday, April 28, 2024 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Pacers 125 Bucks 108.

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Milwaukee Bucks: 15-31 ATS as a road underdog. 16-24 ATS in road games. 3-8 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less. 11-6 OVER in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5. 12-6 OVER off a loss against a division rival. 32-23 OVER off a road loss.

Indiana Pacers: 27-11 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread. 25-15 ATS after playing a home game. 26-16 OVER in home games. 26-13 OVER after a game where they failed to cover the spread. 14-7 OVER off a win against a division rival. 

Milwaukee Bucks:  D. Lillard (PG) Ques Sun - Achilles. C. Livingston (SF) Ques Sun - Illness. G. Antetokounmpo (SF) Early May - Calf. J. Galloway (SF) Out indefinitely - Ankle.

Indiana Pacers:  B. Mathurin (SG) out for season - Shoulder.

“We've just got to turn the page and get one win after another.” - Damian Lillard after their loss against the Pacers in game 3 of this series on Friday.

“You know I was going to shoot it, no matter what. What I was going to get was really based off of feel there. Khris (Middleton) pushed Pascal (Siakam) up to tell Patrick (Beverley) to go under and as soon as I saw Patrick kind of turn his head, I reacted and everything opened up across the middle and I finally made a shot. I couldn't buy a bucket tonight.” - Tyrese Haliburton after their win against the Bucks in game 3 of this series on Friday.

PG Damian Lillard

SG Patrick Beverley

SF Khris Middleton

PF Jae Crowder

C Brook Lopez

PG Tyrese Haliburton

SG Andrew Nembhard

SF Aaron Nesmith 

PF Pascal Siakam 

C Myles Turner

PPG: G. Antetokounmpo (30.4)

APG: D. Lillard (7)

Reb/G: G. Antetokounmpo (11.5)

PPG: P. Siakam (21.7)

APG: T. Haliburton (10.9)

Reb/G: P. Siakam (7.1)

Coaches:

Milwaukee Bucks: Doc Rivers (1st season)

Indiana Pacers: Rick Carlisle (3rd season)