Game Time: 7:00 PM ET, Wednesday, May 11th, 2022 

Venue:   TD Garden, Boston Massachusetts

Where to Watch:  TNT

DraftKings:  Celtics -5.5; O/U 214.5

Fanduel:  Celtics -5.5; O/U 214.5

BetMGM: Celtics; -5.5; O/U 214.5

Bucks: 51-31, 3rd place Eastern Conference

Celtics: 51-31, 2nd place Eastern Conference

Wow!  An NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference second round series Game 5 that has swung us back and forth.  If you have been following this column you would find that I’m 3-1 ATS during this series.  I will chalk up Game 2 to luck and the others to math.  For review… The Celtics won Game 1 and won ATS.  The Bucks won Game 2 and won ATS.  The Bucks won Game 3 (my Miss) and resulted in a Push.  The Celtics won game 4 and won against the spread.  The series has been great.  It has gone back and forth to the point that I don’t even remember where some of the TV talking heads started when they made predictions.  I started with the Celtics and stayed on them.  Alternately I feel dumb, validated, awkward, and validated again.  The Boston Celtics have the best defense.  The Milwaukee Bucks have the best player.  The Yin Yang of basketball says that either team can smash the other if the ball breaks or bounces correctly… not to mention the officiating, which has been suspect at best.  In Game 4 the Celtics and the Bucks got burned on multiple bad calls… before you go thinking it all evens out.. I would rather it all be right and we get to see how it would actually turn out.   In this series there has been 1 Over and 3 Under.  The feeling when you bet the Under should be pretty safe… after all the Celtics have the best defense and Giannis can stuff shots all day… but when the shots start falling you can get burned.  The Celtics are at home again…. Will they take a lead back to Milwaukee?

The Milwaukee Bucks are a great team.  They have won 6 of their last 10 games including 1 regular season game.  They went 4-5-1 ATS.  They are last season’s Champs… and they face a tied series IN BOSTON for the tie-breaker Game 5.  In Game 4 the Bucks lost 116 - 108…. (exactly the point differential and winner I predicted) as Giannis got 34 points, 18 rebounds, and 5 assists… You literally can not ask a star to do more for his team!  JRue Holiday, Pat Connaughton, and Grayson Allen all dropped the ball… producing a lethal amount of negative +/-.  C Brook Lopez puled his weight efficiently with 17 points, 7 rebounds in 29 minutes.  F Bobby Portis has been awfully invisible in all these games… He was the guy that was supposed to fill PJ Tucker’s shoes… He isn’t… Probably because PJ Tucker loves shoes more than Bobby Portis.  Head Coach Mike Budenholzer has unfortunately shortened the rotation to the point that every starter is drained as the crucial 4th quarter kicks off.  Budenholzer might not see the plus in playing Portis, Carter, Nwora… but the best part would be to keep Giannis from taking a nap after a fall while the rest of his team barely makes it back on defense.  Also… The entire Bucks team would benefit form Gianni not forcing 3-pointers and missing them all.  Maybe adjust the squad to where Giannis finds himself in the paint instead of beyond the arc?

The Boston Celtics had a lot of explaining to do when this series was down 1-2.  Is it because they do not know how to stop Giannis or how to stop the Bucks?.  Head Coach Ime Udoka who is the best at making in game and after game adjustments sent the Celtics in with a wrinkle that paid solid dividends in Game 4.  The Celtics have won 7 of their last 10 games including 2 regular season games.  They went 7-2-1 ATS during that stretch.  In the last win the Celtics had a surprise best player.  In every Celtics game we expect SF Jayson Tatum or SG Jaylen Brown to go off for big numbers… then we expect PG Marcus Smart (The Pride of Flower Mound, Texas) to get some points and play some incredible defense… then who know?... Maybe Robert Williams III blocks a season record for shots… or Derrick White drops 20 from the bench?... But last game the hero, real hero was PF Al Horford who had 30 points (a career playoff high) with 8 rebounds and 3 assists!  The 36 year old had everything going… including the attitude needed to drive past and dunk on Giannis Antetokounmpo.  Al Horford was the game.  Yes, the Celtics got 30 points from Jayson Tatum also (with 13 rebounds)... 18 a piece from Brown and Smart… It all worked.  Why because Horford made it work.  He will not do it again… but what the Celtics have proven is that extra form Al isn’t necessary every time… They can get extra form everyone else mentioned… they can get that great feeling of confidence from Al.  Remember Al Horford played for Billy Donovan in college and that was a lifetime ago.  

In the last 7 days Team Del Genio is 5-0-1 ATs in NBA betting… while Ben Burns is 7-2 ATS in NBA betting.  That is +$5000, and +$4800  respectively… Imagine if you had been following along!  Get Team Del Genio’s and Ben Burns’ picks now!  Don’t miss out on these great chances to beat your Book! Make winning the thing you do from now on!! Stay with BigAl.com throughout the NBA Playoffs and let’s grow that bankroll! You can discover the best  picks right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers. NCAAF, NFL, MLB, college football… get positive value from all your bets! Expert picks!  Fun fact… winning a wager is much better than making a wager!

The Bucks are 57-34 on the season, but 43-47-1 ATS. They have logged 44 Overs and 47 Unders.  They are 27-18 in road games.

The Celtics are 57-33 on the season, but 50-38-2 ATS.  They have been a great betting opportunity all season.  They are 31-14 at home.

The Bucks are 3rd in scoring with 115.5 ppg, 2nd in rebounds with 46.7 per game, and 15th in AST/TOi ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 19th while allowing 112.1 ppg from opponents.

The Celtics are 12th in scoring with 111.8 ppg, 5th in rebounds with 46.1 per game, and 11th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank FIRST while holding opponents to 104.5 ppg.

 

Our prediction for Wednesday, May 11th is….. Celtics 118 - Bucks 109

The Celtics will win and cover.  The Celtics are at home where they will benefit form friendly cheers and reliable jump shots.  Giannis will be overly emotional as last game was an embarrassment.. Giannis will try to do it all himself… That is exactly what the Celtics will be hoping for… They will give Giannis 40+ points a game if it means that the Bucks team breaks down.

Boston is 5-1 ATS versus Milwaukee at Boston over the last 3 seasons.

Boston is 11-1 ATS versus Milwaukee over the last 3 seasons.

Milwaukee is 6-1 ATs when tied in a playoff series the last 3 seasons.

Bucks: C Serge Ibaka (ill) Out ** SF Khris Middleton (knee) Out

Celtics: C Roert Williams III (knee) Out

Bucks: SF Wesley Mathews, PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, C Brook Lopez, SG Grayson Allen, PG Jrue Holiday 

Celtics: SF Jayson Tatum, PF Grant Williams, C Al Horford, SG Jaylen Brown, PG Marcus Smart

Bucks: Mike “Let Giannis do it!” Budenholzer

Celtics: Ime “ Let’s make some adjustments” Udoka