Game Time: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, May 1st, 2022 

Venue:  TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts  

Where to Watch: ABC

DraftKings:  Celtics -4.5; O/U 217.5

Fanduel:  Celtics -4.5; O/U 217

BetMGM: Celtics -4.5; O/U 217.5

Bucks: 51-31, 3rd place Eastern Conference

Celtics: 51-31, 2nd place Eastern Conference

An NBA Eastern Conference 2nd Round Playoff matchup between two of the best teams in all the league!  The Bucks vs the Celtics is a battle of big boys…. We can expect the series to swing back and forth… we can expect the momentum to swing back and forth from play to play. This is being billed as the best player in the Eastern Conference versus the best team in the Eastern Conference.  It should be a barn burner of a series and the great betting opportunities will reveal themselves as we dive deep, deep into the numbers. 

The Milwaukee Bucks spent 5 games in their first round series with the Chicago Bulls mostly dominating.  They lost 1 game( game2) … then won the series 4-1…. They were 3-2 ATS.   The reason for a little bit of struggle is the Bulls are actually a good team when all healthy.  The Bulls' health did not hold however and the Bucks' job got easier and easier with every game after the second.  The Bucks have Forward Giannis Antetokounmpo and he is most likely the best player in basketball.  He attacks the paint possession after possession getting lay-ups and short jumpers… and frequently draws fouls.  What separates Giannis and his back-up dancers “the Bucks” from other teams with a dominant scorer is that Giannis is also head and shoulders above most NBA players on defense.  

The Boston Celtics have the best team in basketball since New Year's Day.  Something happened in Boston and this roster finally gelled behind their two stars SF Jayson Tatum and SG Jaylen Brown… and while both are great offensive weapons… The team as a whole has learned to be the best defense in the NBA. As a result, the Celtics rose from the middle of the pack to the second best record in the Eastern Conference over the last 3 months of the season.  If you were to conduct a poll of GM’s and coaches about which player they would want from any other team… SF Jayson Tatum would get a lot of votes.  Tatum has turned into an elite scorer.. An elite defender… and he has 5 seasons of NBA experience while still being only 23 years old.  The Celtics are in for a long run with this duo, whatever happens this series.

The Milwaukee Bucks have won 7 of their last ten games including the playoffs and the last 5 games of the regular season.  They are 5-5 ATS during that stretch. The Bucks are not a great betting opportunity in most cases as they tend to get from Giannis exactly what they need to win more than they lose… but they do not dominate.  In the round 1 close out game Giannis had 33 points in 30 minutes, SG Grayson Allen had 13 points and SG Pat Connaughton had 20 points while splitting the 2 guard spot. PG JRue Holiday, SF Bobby Portis and C Brook Lopez all put in double figures.  They coasted to the win.  The Celtics are not the Bulls.

The Boston Celtics have won 8 of their last ten games including 6 regular season games and a sweep of the Brooklyn Nets in their first round series.  They went 7-3 ATS during that stretch. 3-1 ATS during the sweep of the Nets.  In the last win against the Nets SF Jayson Tatum had 29 points, SG Jaylen Brown had 22 points, and PG Marcus Smart had 20 points.  They are the Big Three for the Celtics.  As those three players go the whole team goes.  The impressive part is of course the defense these guys played on Nets stars SF Kevin Durant and PG Kyrie Irving.  During the series, one Nets star would occasionally go off… but never both in the same game.  The Celtics defense is especially impressive when you factor in that their C Robert Williams III, whose calling card is defense, missed ¾ of the series with injury. The Celtics have home court advantage… and while Giannis provides a different set of defensive needs for the Celtics… just knowing they stopped Kyrie and KD will give the Celtics the edge every time out.

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Milwaukee is 55-32 on the season, but 42-45 ATS.  They have logged 43 Overs, 44 Unders.  They are 26-17 in road games.

The Celtics are 55-31 on the season, but 48-37-1 ATS.  They have notched 42 Overs, 42 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are 30-13 in home games.

The Bucks are 3rd in scoring with 115.5, 2nd in rebounds with 46.7 per game, and 15th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 19th while allowing 112.1 ppg from opponents.

The Celtics are 12th in scoring with 111.8 ppg, 5th in rebounds with 46.1 per game, and 11th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8. On defense they rank FIRSTwhile holding opponents to 104.5 ppg.  A stat to watch is that they get 5.8 blocks per game for 2nd in the NBA.  It’s a block party… which won’t work against Giannis… but the back up dancers are vulnerable.

Our prediction for Sunday, May 1st is….. Celtics 118 - Bucks 111

The Celtics will win outright and ATS versus the Bucks at home.  The Celtics are on a feel-good run against a tough duo of scorers while the Bucks have been facing a team without half as much as the Celtics have… it will show.  Also bet the Over.  In first games of a series the Over has a tendency to hit… this is because neither coach has yet to make a defensive adjustment.

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Boston is 9-0 ATS versus Milwaukee the last 3 seasons.

Milwaukee is 0-7 ATS in every first game of a playoff series the last 3 seasons.

Boston is 16-6 ATS after playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.

Boston is 14 Over and 28 Under as a favorite of 3.5 point to 9.5 points.

Bucks: SF Khris Middleton (knee) Out ** PG George Hill (abs) Out

Celtics: SG Jaylen Brown (hammy) Will play.

Bucks: SF Bobby Portis, PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, C Brook Lopez, PG Jrue Holiday, SG Wesley Matthews

Celtics: SF Jayson Tatum, PF Al Horford, C Daniel Theis, SG Jaylen Brown, PG Marcus Smart

Bucks: Mike Budenholzer

Celtics: Ime Udoka