by Chuck Sommers
Sunday, Dec 25, 2022
Time: 5 p.m. ET
Venue: TD Garden, Boston, MA
Where to watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Celtics -5; Celtics -200, Bucks +170; O/U 224.5
FanDuel: Celtics -5; Celtics -200, Bucks +172; O/U 224.5
BetMGM: Celtics -4.5; Celtics -200, Bucks +165; O/U 224.5
Caesars: Celtics -5; Celtics -204, Bucks +170; O/U 224.5
Season record
Bucks: 22-10
Celtics: 23-10
Well, if you’ve never seen a balanced NBA season to this point, you’re in for some craziness along the way. A lot of new faces in new places already making an impact, and our champion handicappers are already starting to take notice. The last 30 days have seen our champion handicappers cashing in a great deal. Look at Brian Bitler going 80-55-0 in the last 30 days, a run of $18,800 net profit. How about ASA, Inc.? He’s on a 55-41-2 run the last 30 days. You know where to go for your best analysis. As the season progresses, you know we're going to be in a position to deliver you the best analysis and picks that one can have in this market. Make sure you check out our Best Bets page at bigal.com to find all of our handicappers' selections, comprehensive previews, and more!
Bucks - Celtics preview, prediction and analysis
Bucks analysis
You knew that the Milwaukee Bucks would hit a mini wall at some point, but this one is a little bit more than what they could’ve thought. Milwaukee has lost three of its last five and has lost two in a row with losses to Cleveland and Brooklyn earlier this week. Not to mention, Milwaukee has failed to cover in three of its last five and it's not like the spreads have been completely lopsided. Other last six games, the bucks have seen as spread anywhere as high as three and as low as one. The over has also cashed in for the last six. Normally, you could chalk up injuries to Milwaukee and say that they were due for one or two bad games. But the bucks have pretty much everyone accounted for with the exception of Khris Middleton last game. Brook Lopez had 23 points and missed only six shots, and Giannis Antetokounmpo had 26 points and 13 rebounds, But there was no stopping the crowded depth of Brooklyn when Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are doing their thing. Of course you should not expect Milwaukee to continue to struggle like this. This is just par for the course and the effects of an 82 game season. The fact that they have wins over New Orleans in Utah also show that this wasn't an entirely lost cause for them. Middleton is questionable for this game, and if Milwaukee wants any chance of winning, they are going to need the best perimeter defender to go against Boston and their star duo.
Celtics analysis
It had been a rough stretch to say the least for the Boston Celtics. Losing five of seven and also going 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven games has not provided the type of results that this team is accustomed to having. So clearly what we have here is a match up on Christmas Day involving 2 teams that could possibly springboard themselves to something good if they get a win. Because for the Celtics it's been a rough go. You look at the losses that they have stacked up, starting with a 16 point loss in an NBA Finals rematch against Golden State and then followed that up with a 20 point loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on the road before surviving the overtime victory against the Lakers one night later. But if that weren't enough, Boston then lost back-to-back games at home against the surging Orlando Magic. That's not really a slight on Orlando, they have been really good. But apparently so good that they were able to knock off Boston in back-to-back nights at home. And that shell shocked Boston so much that they lost by 5 to the Indiana Pacers the following night. Just an overall weird stretch for Boston, but they are coming off A121-109 victory at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves the other night in which Jaylen brown had 36 points and Jayson Tatum had 30. Normally, I would not care that the Celtics have struggled as much as they have, but the losses at home are just as alarming throughout this stretch. And again I don't want to take anything away from Orlando or Indiana for being much improved this year. But that is a red flag.
Prediction
The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last six following an ATS loss, and that should bode well with Milwaukee getting 4.5. Boston also is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six after the opponent scores 100 or more the previous game. The trends favor Milwaukee in this one. Bucks 112, Celtics 105
Betting trends
Celtics are 258-319 ATS at home after one or more overs since 1996.
Celtics are 18-3 ATS after losing 5 or 6 of their last 7 over the last 3 seasons.
The over is 12-4 when the Celtics are home favorites this season.
Celtics are 12-4 ATS after a home game this season.
Projected starting lineup
Bucks:
PG: Jrue Holiday
SG: Grayson Allen
SF: Pat Connaughton
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo
C: Brook Lopez
Celtics:
PG: Marcus Smart
SG: Derrick White
SF: Jaylen Brown
PF: Jayson Tatum
C: Al Horford
Injury report
Bucks: Khris Middleton (out)
Celtics: Danilo Gallinari (knee, out)
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
