by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Jan 17, 2022
Time: 6 p.m. ET
Venue: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
Where to watch: TNT
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Bucks -4
BetMGM: Bucks -4.5
Caesars: Bucks -4
Season record
Bucks: 27-18 (4th place, Eastern Conference)
Hawks: 17-25 (12th place, Eastern Conference)
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Bucks - Hawks preview, analysis and prediction
Just when you think the Milwaukee Bucks are ready for a run of world domination, they take a couple of steps back. But I like them in this MLK Day matchup on Monday against the freefalling Atlanta Hawks in the ATL.
Part of me might have felt like the Bucks may have been too ready to go on a crazy run after annihilating the Golden State Warriors this past Thursday at home. The defending NBA champions came back only to lose 103-96 at home to the Toronto Raptors on Saturday.
And in an almost serious matter, how do you waste a 17 of 17 performance at the free-throw line from Giannis Antetokounmpo? Pascal Siakam responded with a 30-point, 10-assist and 10-rebound triple-double for the Toronto victory.
The Bucks lost by only seven despite shooting 33.8 percent from the floor and were once again without starting point guard Jrue Holiday due to an ankle injury. The former All-Star guard will not be available for this game, either.
"Just do more," Antetokounmpo said. "It wasn't enough tonight."
It’s hard to do more when your second co-star is not around to take the load off. Khris Middleton was held to just 3 of 12 shooting and had only 16 points. When Giannis and Middleton are struggling, and Holiday isn’t there as the possible third wheel, it becomes a tough road for the Bucks.
Milwaukee is just 12-10 against the spread on the road this season and are 3-4 ATS off a home loss this season. The Bucks just haven’t been a reliable team to bet on in 2021-22. Consistency has even been a problem for Milwaukee; when they allow 105 points or less the previous game, the Bucks are just 6-12 against the spread and 40-43 the past three seasons.
The good news is they’re 62-21 straight up when that happens, and the line is small enough to think the Bucks can put together a performance worthy enough of handing the Hawks a sixth straight loss on Monday.
Atlanta was 14-14 on Dec. 15 but has since gone 3-11 since a 111-99 win at the Orlando Magic before Christmas. It’s been a series of Trae Young leading the team in scoring, and the hope that someone else carries the slack. The All-Star guard had 29 points in a 9-point loss to the New York Knicks on Saturday for the Hawks’ 10th straight loss at home.
"We were tired, but they were tired as well," Hawks coach Nate McMillan said. "If you're taking quick shots as we did, you're bailing the defense out. They don't have to guard. You've got to understand time, score and situation and do a better job of managing getting what you want in that offensive set and not settling for something quick, trying to get everything back quickly.”
The Hawks started the season 8-1 at home but have since fallen to 8-11 with this absurd run of losing. They’re 7-12 against the spread at home this season and fell to 9-15 ATS off a loss.
Atlanta’s defense has also taken a major hit; the Hawks are 1-8 this season when allowing three straight games of an opponent shooting 47 percent or better from the field. The Bucks are in need of a breakthrough offensive performance, and I think that can come against a Hawks team that refuses to play defense right now. Bucks by 12
Betting trends
The under has covered in the Bucks' last five games.
The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last four as a favorite.
The Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four following an outright loss.
The under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings at Atlanta.
Projected starting lineup
Bucks:
PG: George Hill
SG: Grayson Allen
SF: Khris Middleton
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo
C: Bobby Portis
SF: Khris Middleton
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo
C: Bobby Portis
Hawks:
PG: Trae Young
SG: Kevin Huerter
SF: De'Andre Hunter
PF: John Collins
C: Onyeka Okongwu
SF: De'Andre Hunter
PF: John Collins
C: Onyeka Okongwu
Key injuries
Bucks: Jrue Holiday (ankle, out)
Hawks: Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee, out), Clint Capela (ankle, out)
Bucks: Jrue Holiday (ankle, out)
Hawks: Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee, out), Clint Capela (ankle, out)
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
