Milwaukee Brewers vs St Louis Cardinals Preview and Picks - 09/30/2021

by James Q

Wednesday, Sep 29, 2021

Milwaukee Brewers vs St Louis Cardinals Preview and Picks - 09/30/2021

Game Time: 1:15 pm ET, Thursday, September 30th, 2021 
Venue: Busch Stadium, St Louis, Missouri
Where to Watch: Bally Sports Wisconsin, Bally Sports Midwest, MLBN (out of market)

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline: Brewers -105 Cards -115:  O/U  9 runs
VegasInsider: Moneyline: Brewers -105 Cards -115:  O/U 9 runs

Season Record

Brewers:  94-63 (1st place NL Central)
Cardinals:  88-69 (2nd place NL Central)

Wow!!  The Cardinals have won 17 straight games in a row.  That is a National League streak not reached since the 1930’s.  It’s a National League Central record.  They swept multiple three-game series and multiple four-game series.  They high-fived, they smiled, they felt a level of enthusiasm experienced by very few professional baseball players that aren’t popping champagne all over their teammates!  The Brewers can be happy for the Cardinals because the Brewers are still so far ahead in 1st place as to still be uncatchable unless they lose every single game left.

Nelly’s went 2-0 last night in MLB selections and we’ve gone 7-1 in the past seven days of baseball picks while on a 15-5-1 MLB run since Sep. 12 and a 38-22-2 all sports run since Sep. 9. The final week of the regular season is living up to its billing with several important games and Nelly’s is ready to deliver Wednesday night with our AL West Game of the Week!   Get Nelly’s picks!  They’re available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.  Get off to a fast start and become an expert bettor! 

Brewers vs Cardinals Preview and Analysis

Recent Form

The Brewers have struggled as of late.  Going 4-6 over their last ten games.  Logging 6 Overs and 4 Unders.  They went 1-1 against the Chicago Cubs, got SWEPT 0-4 against the St Louis Cardinals, Swept the New York Mets 3-0, and then lost again to the Cardinals 0-1.

The Cardinals are the toughest team in baseball over their last ten games (more than that) going 10-0. They beat the San Diego Padres 1-0, SWEPT the Milwaukee Brewers 4-0, SWEPT the Chicago Cubs 4-0, and beat the St Louis Cardinals again 1-0.

Offensive Analysis 

The Milwaukee Brewers are 28th in team batting average .233, 11th in runs scored 719, 4th in BB (this is how they score so well) 576, and 18th in home runs 190.  Offensively they feel like Paper Lions.  You’d like a division leader to be better at slugging percentage than 23rd at this point in the season.  You’d like a division leader to be at doubles than 29th at this point in the season.  They rely on their pitchers, and when they face a great National League team like the Giants or the Dodgers they will be quickly eliminated for lack of hitting.

The Cardinals are 10th in team batting average .244, 19th in runs scored 691, 15th in home runs 192, 24th in BB.  They are on a tear to finish the season, at times it feels like the stats don’t matter.  They are hitting above their capabilities right now and maybe establishing new base line numbers…. Still over the season they are barely average from the batter’s box.


Defensive Analysis

The Milwaukee Brewers pitchers are 3rd in team ERA 3.41, 1st in strikeouts 1585, 3rd in WHIP 1.18.  The mound in Milwaukee produces wins.  They have Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, both in the top five in ERA for the league.  The Brewers odds are great when judging any pitching matchup those guys are in.

The Cardinals 13th in team ERA 3.98, 30th in strikeouts 1179, 17th in WHIP 1.30.  There is a wild disparity between their average numbers and being last in strikeouts.  They don’t just rely on fielding to hold down the opposition, they desperately need it.  These pitchers have been experiencing a win streak not seen by any national league team since all baseball broadcasts were on radio… they should be proud… but going forward they need to strike more batters out or it will be a quick exit from the Playoffs.

Brewers vs Cardinals Prediction 

Our prediction for Thursday, September 30th is… Brewers 5 - Cards 2

All streaks come to an end or we wouldn’t have a word for streaks.  The Cards have beat the Brewers 5 games in the last ten… The Brewers are a good team who will stop it there.

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MLB Betting Trends 

The Brewers are 49-27 in road games +15.9 Units
The Brewers are 40-22 in Day games +11.4 Units
The Cards are 88-69 on the season +19.7 Units
The Cards are 33-22 in day games +12.3 Units
The Cards O/U at home is 31-40-5

Key Injuries

Brewers:  SS Willy Adames (quad) Questionable  
Cards: C Yadier Molina (shoulder) Questionable  * SS Edmundo Sosa (wrist) Questionable

Players to Watch

The Brewers will start lefty Brett Anderson 4-9, 4.30 ERA, 56 SO in 90 IP.  The 33 years old gave up 6 hits in his last start, which was against St Louis,  and was yanked after 1 inning.  He has had 8 days to recover and will have to face these birds again.

The Cardinals will start Lefty J.A. Happ 9-8, 5.86 ERA, 115 SO in 146 IP.  Father Time Happ is halfway through his 38th year on the planet and his ERA has drifted a full 1 ¾ points over his career average of 4.12.. He is trailing off and the Cards are siphoning the last fumes from the tank.

Notable Quotes

“People say, ‘How do you stay so optimistic about this team?’ Really it’s not blind optimism. I am an optimist by nature,” - Mike Shildt , Cardinals Manager
“We feel dangerous,”- Adam Wainwright, Cardinals pitcher, won the record setting 17th game in a row.

Starting Lineups 

K. Wong, 2B
O. Narvaez, C
C. Yelich, LF
A. Garcia, RF
D. Vogelbach, 1B
L. Urias, SS
J. Peterson, 3B
T. Taylor, CF

T. Edman, 2B
P. Goldschmidt, 1B
T. O'Neill, LF
N. Arenado, 3B
D. Carlson, RF
H. Bader, CF
P. DeJong, SS
A. Knizner, C

Statistical Leaders

Passing: Avisail Garcia .265
RBI:  Avisail Garcia 85
OBP:  Luis Urias  .345
Wins:  Bret Suter 12
ERA:  Corbin Burnes 2.29

Wins:  Adam Wainwright 17
Saves: Alex Reyes 29
Batting Average:  Paul Goldschmidt .296
Home Runs:  Loan Arenado  34


Brewers:  Craig Counsell
Cardinals: Mike Shildt

Weather Forecast 

Mostly Cloudy.  Humidity 65% 8 mph win.  


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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