Game Time: 10:15 pm ET, Friday, July 15th, 2022 

Venue: Oracle Park, San Francisco, California.

Where to Watch: MLB.tv 

DraftKings: Brewers -105, Giants -115

Caesars:  

PointsBet: 

 

Brewers: 49-40, 1st place NL Central

Giants: 45-42, 3rd place NL West

Vegas thinks this is a more or less even matchup.  The Brewers are -105, the Giants are -115.  The Giants defeated the Brewers in Game 1 (as predicted here)... I have the Giants losing to the Brewers in Game 2 (Thursday Night) because of the pitching matchup… So this prediction is all about who will win Game 3 and break the tie?.... The pitching matchup should be heavily favored as the numbers and potential of both squads are pretty close.  So let’s check out who gets the win Friday July 15th?

A National League matchup between the best of the junky NL Central division and the 3rd best of the supreme NL West division. Are they equal…no.  The Brewers are playing much better than the Giants. The Brewers are a game away from having won 50 games.  The Giants are 6 games away from having won 50 games.  Neither are on pace to break 100 wins.  Neither are on pace to become world beaters.  Neither team instills a measure of confidence about the postseason.  Neither are my pick to do anything late.  So what do we have?... We have a pitching matchup and a chance to win a bet with a soft and easy moneyline.  Let’s check the numbers and win that bet.

The Milwaukee Brewers have won 5 of their last 10 games.  Going .500 over a stretch isn’t bad and it ain’t great. 6 Unders and 4 Overs.  They went 1-0 against the Minnesota Twins, 1-2 against the Pittsburgh Pirates, 1-2 against the Chicago Cubs, and 2-1 against the Pittsburgh Pirates.  They have had a steady diet of the awful Pittsburgh Pirates… and they still could not break .500 during the stretch.  Ouch!  Right Fielder Christain Yelich is on the injury list… He is a big deal kinda… Team Home Run leader Willy Adames and team batting average leader Mike Brosseau are a good foundation for an offense and that has kept the Brewers just inside the top-ten runs per game… The pitchers unfortunately have left them just outside of the top-ten in ERA.  One will have to break the other direction to get consistent winning.

The San Francisco Giants have won 4 of their last 10 games.  They are really struggling.  They will not live up to the promise of last season when they finished with 107 wins… in fact they won’t finish with near that.  The simple truth is they don’t have the same top end players… they have several key players taking turns on the injury list… and the amazing teamwork of last season is nowhere to be found.  They went 1-1 against the Arizona Diamondbacks (with one left to play tonight), 2-2 against the San Diego Padres (a finish that only benefited the Los Angeles Dodgers), 1-2 against the Arizona Diamondbacks again, and 0-1 against the Chicago White Sox.

 

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The Brewers are 10th in scoring with 4.57 runs per game, 23rd in batting average with .236, and 15th in OBP with .316

The Giants are 6th in scoring with 4.71 runs per game, 23rd in batting average with .235, and 10th in OBP with .320.

The Brewers are 11th in ERA with 3.78, 11th in WHIP with 1.24, and 18th in errors with 50 on the season so far.

The Giants are 17th in ERA with 3.99, 18th in WHIP with 1.27, and 20th in errors with 51 on the season.

 

Our prediction for Friday July 15th is… Brewers 7 - Giants 3

The Brewers have a clear pitching advantage in Game 3.  Woodruff is the real deal and has been pitching well for the Brewers.  Alex Wood used to be the real deal but has been pitching mediocre for the Giants. Don’t dig too deep here.  The Brewers should win on the moneyline and the return should be what you expect.  

 

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The Brewers are 92-72 in all road games the last 3 seasons.

The Giants are 68-45 when the moneyline is -100 to -150 the last 3 seasons.

Brandon Woodruff is 5 Over and 1 Under when the total is 7 to 7.5.

Brewers: RHP, Brandon Woodruff, 7-3, 4.01 ERA, 80 strikeouts in 60 innings pitched.  1.14 WHIP.  “Woody” is an ACE for the moment and the Brewers can deploy him with reasonable surety that they will earn the win.  His ERA is swelling at a bit this season and his ACE days will need some dominant performances to stay alive… but for now he is a reliable win.

Giants: LHP Alex Wood, 6-7, 4.43 ERA, 83 strikeouts in 85 innings pitched.  1.27 WHIP.  “A-Wood” needs a rest.  His numbers are falling apart, not a lot, but they are dipping.  Very much like his team, overall it was much better the last few seasons.  The 31 year old has plenty left in him… but we need to start seeing it.

Brewers: Craig “not Matthew Modine” Counsell

Giants: Gabe “keep shaping those eyebrows” Kapler