Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview and Odds - 06/20/2024

Game Time: 9:40 pm ET, Thursday, June 20, 2024

Venue:  Petco Park, San Diego, CA

Where to Watch:  SDPA

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Brewers -120, Padres +100; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Brewers -120, Padres +100; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Brewers -120, Padres +100; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Milwaukee Brewers:  43-30 (1st place, NL Central)

San Diego Padres:  37-40 (4th place, NL West)

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Milwaukee Brewers:  6-4 last 10

San Diego Padres:  4-6 last 10

The Brewers won their 3-game series against the Cincinnati Reds 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 43-30 record overall and have a road record of 21-18. This is the series opener of a 4-game series with the Padres on Thursday with the series finale of their series against the Los Angeles Angels still to be played on Wednesday. The Brewers lost the series opener of their series against the Angels on Monday but won the 2nd game on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 7th in the MLB with a .730 OPS. Freddy Peralta is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Bryse Wilson is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 4-3 with a 3.84 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 2 BB with 6 Ks on 3 hits through 5.1 IP against the Cincinnati Reds.

The Padres are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 38-40 record overall and have a home record of 18-21. This is the 1st game of a 4-game series with the Brewers on Thursday. Their offense ranks 10th in the MLB with a .720 OPS. Matt Waldron was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while rookie pitcher Adam Mazur is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 0-2 with a 7.82 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 0 homers, and 6 BB with 4 strikeouts on 3 hits through 3.2 innings played against the New York Mets.

The current betting odds have the Brewers listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Brewers have looked good in their games this season with their 43-30 record overall which has them leading the NL Central and they are also 21-18 in their road games. Meanwhile, the Padres haven't looked good in their games this season with their 38-40 record overall and they have looked worse at home too, going 18-21 in their home games. The Padres are going to have their rookie Mazur on the mound but he has not been good in his few starts this season. He is 0-2 with a 7.82 ERA and his team has lost all 3 games with him starting. He only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start, but he is going to get himself into trouble with the way the Brewers offense has been hitting all year. The Brewers have Wilson on the mound here and he is 4-3 with a 3.84 ERA this season. He hasn't been great this year, but he hasn't been bad either and he gave up no runs in his last start too. The Brewers have a bit of an advantage here since they are already on the West coast while the Padres are flying back from Philadelphia on Wednesday. The Brewers also have the better offense and they can take advantage of this pitching matchup. The best way to place a bet here is on the Brewers to win this game. 

Brewers Padres Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, June 20, 2024 (9:40 pm ET start time) is Brewers 4 Padres 1.

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Milwaukee Brewers: 43-30 (+13.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 24-11 (+9.3 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 34-22 (+12.8 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. BRYSE WILSON is 6-2 UNDER in all games, 5-1 UNDER when the total is 8 to 8.5, and 4-0 UNDER when the money line is +125 to -125.

San Diego Padres: 37-40 (-9.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 18-21 (-10.1 units) on the moneyline in home games. 6-9 (-6 units) on the moneyline at home when the total is 8 to 8.5. 18-9 UNDER as a home underdog of +100 or higher. 38-22 UNDER at home when the total is 8.5 to 10. 

Milwaukee Brewers:  A. Uribe (SP) Out indefinitely - Knee. J. Baez (SS) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. R. Gasser (SP) out for season - Elbow. B. Woodruff (SP) out for season - Shoulder. D. Williams (RP) Mid July - Back. J. Ross (SP) Out indefinitely - Back. G. Mitchell (CF) Early June - Hand. W. Miley (SP) out for season - Elbow. J. Junis (SP) Early June - Shoulder. J. Bukauskas (RP) Out indefinitely - Tricep. D. Hall (SP) Out indefinitely - Knee.

San Diego Padres:  Y. Darvish (SP) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. J. Musgrove (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. L. Patino (SP) out for season - Elbow. X. Bogaerts (2B) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. G. Otto (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder.

“I was thinking tie score. (But) if Sal is near it, it goes in his glove 99.9% of the time.” - Pat Murphy after his team’s win against the LA Angels in their game on Tuesday.

“It really hurts. We scratched and clawed and did everything that we possibly could to win the game. It just wasn’t good enough.” - Mike Shildt after his team’s loss against the Phillies in their game on Tuesday.

Brice Turang (L) 2B

William Contreras (R) DH

Christian Yelich (L) LF

Willy Adames (R) SS

Rhys Hoskins (R) 1B

Joey Ortiz (R) 3B

Sal Frelick (L) CF

Gary Sánchez (R) C

Jackson Chourio (R) RF

Luis Arraez (L) 1B

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF

Jurickson Profar (S) LF

Manny Machado (R) DH

Donovan Solano (R) 3B

Ha-Seong Kim (R) SS

Jackson Merrill (L) CF

Kyle Higashioka (R) C

Tyler Wade (L) 2B

Batting Average:  Christian Yelich (.324)

Hits:  William Contreras (88)

Home Runs:  Willy Adames (12)

RBI:  Willy Adames (51)

Stolen Bases:  Brice Turang (26)

Wins:  Jared Koenig (6)

Saves:  Trevor Megill (14)

ERA:  Jake Bauers (0.00)

Batting Average:  Luis Arraez (.333)

Hits:  Jurickson Profar (82)

Home Runs:  Fernando Tatis (13)

RBI:  Jurickson Profar (47)

Stolen Bases:  Ha-Seong Kim (14)

Wins:  Dylan Cease (6)

Saves:  Robert Suarez (17)

ERA:  Logan Gillaspie (0.00)

Managers:

Milwaukee Brewers: Pat Murphy (1st season)

San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (1st season)