Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Odds, Preview and Picks - 05/25/2022

by James Q

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Odds, Preview and Picks - 05/25/2022



Game Time:  4:10 PM ET, Wednesday, May 25th,  2022 
Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, California
Where to Watch: MLB.TV / ESPN + 

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Moneyline: Brewers +105, Padres -125; O/U 7.5
 Caesars: Moneyline:  Brewers +110, Padres -130; O/U 7.5
PointsBet: Moneyline: 

Season Record

Brewers: 26-14, 1st place NL Central
Padres: 26-14, 2nd place NL West

The San Diego Padres won the first game of this home-stand 3-2.  (Game 2 yet to play)... We are betting on Game 3 in this article… Wednesday the 25th.  

A National League MLB matchup between the first place NL Central team and the 2nd place NL West team.  These clubs have identical records of 26 wins and 14 losses.  The Milwaukee Brewers have a much easier path towards the postseason as their division is made up of more terrible teams… The San Diego Padres have a much tougher path to the postseason as their division contains two teams that broke the 100 win mark last season (Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants)... So what does that mean in a head to head matchup?... It means we have to look at the starting pitchers hard… and follow that up with a little bullpen assessment.  Home field advantage will play a bit in the final assessment but not as much as the pitching matchup.

The Milwaukee Brewers have won 7 of their last 10 games.  They went 4 Over, 5 Under, and 1 Push during that stretch.  Among the 3 losses is a 14-11 loss to Cincinnati and a 9-3 loss to Miami, and a 3-0 loss to Atlanta.  So it seems this is a good team with a penchant for letting the occasional game get completely away from them.  They went 2-0 against the Washington Nationals, 2-1 against the Atlanta Braves, 3-1 against the Miami Marlins, and 1-1 against the Cincinnati Reds.  SS Willy Adames leads the team in home runs with 9 while 2B Luis Urias leads the team in Batting average .293, and OPS of .874.  The top ACE in the rotation is Brandon Woodruff.

The San Diego Padres have won 7 of their last 10 games.  They went 6 Over and 4 Under.  They are currently on a 3-game winning streak.  They went 2-0 against he San Francisco Giants, 2-1 against the Philadelphia Phillies, 2-1 against the Atlanta Braves, and 1-1 against the Chicago Cubs.  This Padres team is clinging to an OK batting line-up anxiously awaiting the return of injured star Fernando Tatis Jr.  When Fernando comes back in mid-June the ball will start getting slapped at a much better rate.  For now they have to rely on teamwork and reliable pitching.  Plus third baseman Manny Machado is off to a great start (for what they pay him that is expected) by leading the team in home runs 8, batting average .358, and OPS 1.006.  The team’s replacement for Fernando Tatis Jr is Ha-Seong Kim.  Kim has an OK bat and may even move to the outfield when Fernando returns.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Preview and Analysis 

Offensive Analysis

The Brewers are 6th in runs per game with 4.78 runs per game, 15th in batting average with .238, and 9th in OBP with .315.

The Padres are 11th in runs with 4.38 per game, and 22nd in batting average with .228, and 14th in OBP with .311.

Defensive Analysis 

The Brewers pitchers are 5th in team ERA with 3.34, 8th in WHIP with 1.17, and the fielders are 22nd in errors with 25 so far on the season.

The Padres pitchers are 10th in ERA with 3.53, 7th in WHIP with 1.15.  Padres fielder’s are on point while ranking 1st in errors with only 14 on the season.

Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Our prediction for Wednesday May 25th is… Padres 4 - Brewers 2

Home field advantage is very cool for the Padres in this matchup.   The Padres have another quality pitching matchup in their favor…  It’s wo4rth it to keep pushing the Padres.

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MLB Betting Trends
Milwaukee is 6-3 (+4.0 Units) against San Diego the last 3 seasons.
These teams have played 2 games in San Diego this season and both have gone UNDER.
San Diego is 12-3 against left-handed starters.
San Diego is 11-2 after a loss this season.

Key Injuries

Brewers: C P. Severino (suspended) Out ** SS Willy Adames (elbow) Out 

Padres: LF M. Beatty (shoulder) Out ** SS Fernando Tatis JR (wrist) Out ** 

Players to Watch

Brewers: LHP Aaron Ashby, 0-3, 3.49 ERA, 34 strikeouts in 28 innings.  1.38 WHIP.  Aaron is very green with only 609 innings pitched in his entire MLB career so far.  He has been on the losing end of the stick more times than not.  The 24 year old obviously has some talent and the ability to put real zip on the ball… He needs more seasoning to make that work for him.  

Padres: RHP Yu Darvish, 4-1, 3.91 ERA, 37 strikeouts in 46 innings pitched.  Yu has been around the block.  The 6’5, 35 year old,  Japanese import has pitched himself into an impressive career winning record since his debut in 2012.  He has spent a lot of years in bullpens… but the 83-68 record as a starting pitcher is very nice.  His current WHIP is 1.13.  He enters the game with the advantage is needs the run support to keep it.

Starting Lineups 

Brewers: RHP Corbin Burnes 1-2, 2.26 ERA, 62 strikeouts in 5q1 innings pitched. 0.83 WHIP.  Corbin is cooking with gas.  He really ought to let his barber take a turn on that noggin.

Padres: 2B -1B Jake Cronenworth, 3B Manny Machado, DH Jurickson Profar, RF Will Myers, 1B Luke Voit, C Austin Nola, SS Ha-Seong Kim, CF Trent Grisham, LF Jose Azocar

Managers

Brewers: Craig Counsell
Padres: Bob Melvin

 

Weather Forecast

Partly Cloudy.  Humidity 63%.  Wind 10 mph.  68*  San Diego weather is a thing of beauty… The winds whip off off the deep blue Pacific Ocean chilling everything it touches… meanwhile the land sits in a patch of desert that gets sunshine 95% of the year.  The result is one of the best places in the world to have a hot dog and a beer and take in a game.  Just remember NO SHORTS… even Cargo shorts BOOMER.  When the sun dips under the ocean and the Great Whites begin to feed on seals… the temperature can drop a full 10 degrees in a matter of minutes.





 


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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