Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 9/25/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
Venue: Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH
Where to watch: Bally Sports Wisconsin, Bally Sports Ohio

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Phillies -145, Reds +125
FanDuel: Phillies -145, Reds +125
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: NL

Season record
Brewers: 82-70
Reds: 59-93

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Brewers - Reds preview and analysis


The Milwaukee Brewers are not going away quietly into the night. They will go as far as they can before officially eliminated from playoff contention, but if the Philadelphia Phillies continue to get to that point, the end may be sooner than anticipated.

But after the 10-2 win over the Cincinnati Reds on Saturday highlighted by two two-run home runs from Hunter Renfroe, the Brewers are now 1.5 games back behind the Phillies after they lost to the Atlanta Braves at home on Saturday.

Sunday’s series finale between the two teams should prove to be an important game with 10 to go. The Brewers, who have had a disappointing season to the point where the defending National League Central champions could miss the playoffs altogether, are still alive somehow.

“I think we have to take turns offensively doing it,” Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell said. “Home runs come in bunches. I think it’s going to take different guys every night.”

That would be the underlying problem for the Brewers for the longest time. There’s no consistency on offense. Milwaukee has the 22nd best batting offense in the league, batting a collective .236. It’s one of those situations where if they were even five spots better, maybe better than the San Diego Padres or Chicago Cubs, or even better than the team they’re facing right now, maybe the Brewers wouldn’t be scrambling for a playoff spot.

That or not have to rely on Corbin Burnes to bail them out every time. Burnes, last year’s Cy Young winner, went 6.1 innings and struck out eight. Given the state of the Reds, that line isn’t surprising. But for the last few years, ever since Christian Yelich’s play dropped off from an MVP standpoint, it’s gotten to the point where the Brewers need to win every game with pitching.

Yes, I look at this game and call it an outlier with how everything went with the Brewers. Of course they should be putting up 10 runs against the Reds. Of course they should be dominating games like this and should find way to put runs on the board because it’s not like the Reds are doing any better in terms of winning. So yes, Milwaukee should be dominating regardless.

“I've been feeling good,” Renfroe said. “I've felt pretty good the past few days. I've been seeing the ball well. I just wasn't getting the results I wanted. Tonight, I was able to barrel a couple.”

Good on Renfroe for being the one to hit big homers when need be, but the Brewers need to find a way to win these games and do it dominantly. With the series ending on Sunday and the Brewers in dire need of wins everywhere they go, this is a good road block.

Prediction


I don’t want to bash the Reds because of how well they escaped from purgatory earlier in the season to close in on 60 games. But this one is going to end emphatically and it should be a good tune-up before the nitty gritty. Brewers win 7-1

Betting trends


Brewers are 24-22 as a road favorite of -125 or more.

Reds 23-31 in day games this season.

Projected lineup


Brewers:
Christian Yelich (L) LF
Willy Adames (R) SS
Rowdy Tellez (L) 1B
Hunter Renfroe (R) RF
Kolten Wong (L) 2B
Andrew McCutchen (R) DH
Jace Peterson (L) 3B
Omar Narvaez (L) C
Tyrone Taylor (R) CF

Reds:
TJ Friedl (L) LF
Jonathan India (R) DH
Kyle Farmer (R) SS
Jake Fraley (L) RF
Donovan Solano (R) 1B
Alejo Lopez (S) 2B
Matt Reynolds (R) 3B
Mike Siani (L) CF
Austin Romine (R) C

Statistical leaders


Brewers:
Batting average: Christian Yelich -- .258
Home runs: Rowdy Tellez -- 32
RBI: Willy Adames -- 95
Wins: Brandon Woodruff -- 12
ERA: Corbin Burnes -- 3.12

Reds:
Batting average: Kyle Farmer -- .258
Home runs: Kyle Farmer -- 13
RBI: Kyle Farmer -- 71
Wins: Alexis Diaz -- 6
ERA: N/A

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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