Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 9/23/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Venue: Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH
Where to watch: Bally Sports Wisconsin, Bally Sports Ohio

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: NL
FanDuel: NL
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: NL

Season record
Brewers: 80-70
Reds: 69-91

We're coming down to the wire in the MLB season. Playoff races are heating up, pennant races are still to be decided, and MVP cases are still to be made. Are you in the right headspace to finish strong entering the postseason? Look no further than what Al McMordie has done as of late, going 53-37 in his last 90 in MLB plays! You know you want that type of winning in your life. Make sure you check out Al's and our other champion handicappers to see who they have down the stretch this season

Brewers - Reds preview and analysis


The Milwaukee Brewers are running out of time. With 12 games remaining, Milwaukee finds itself on the outside looking in from the National League Wild Card race. They’re 2.5 games back of the Philadelphia Phillies with time running out on catching the St. Louis Cardinals.

The good news for the Brew Crew is that they have a favorable schedule for the time being. That starts with the Cincinnati Reds, whom the Brewers beat 5-1 on Thursday. The series continues on Friday in Cincinnati.

Thursday night belonged to Kolten Wong, who homered three times to keep the Brewers’ playoff hopes alive. Wong drove in all five runs to pace the inconsistent Brewers offense, but at the right time to give Brandon Woodruff some serious help.

"I'm definitely not a guy who hits three home runs very often," Wong said. "I've had a chance to do it a couple of times, but I tried to do too much. I just tried not to do too much and keep my swing tight."

Perhaps what was the greatest part of Milwaukee’s win was the Brewers had four hits total in that game. Do the math: Wong hit three home runs, meaning he had three of those hits. If not for Wong, the Reds would’ve absolutely cried all the way home to a victory.

"We had four hits," manager Craig Counsell said. "Kolton had three, and all three were home runs. That was pretty incredible. He was definitely a one-man show on offense."

The Brewers need any sort of magic at this point to return to the postseason, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen given the playoff situation. Eric Lauer is expected to start for the Brewers to face Mike Minor and the Reds.

Cincinnati also had just four hits on its own in this game, which is a microcosm of how far the Reds have fallen after coming up shy of the playoffs a year ago. Alejo Lopez had half of those hits, going 2 for 4 from the plate, and Kyle Farmer drove in the only Reds run with a solo homer.

Reds rookie starter Hunter Greene went five innings and struck out eight, but gave up two of the four earned runs.

"I felt solid," Greene said. "I felt really good. Those walks hurt me. It's a good hitting team. It is always a battle when I face these guys. They are pretty good at hitting mistakes. There were times when I pulled off. I tried to elevate a fastball to Wong. It kind of leaked over the plate a little bit."

The Brewers are just 37-40 on the road this year, which could be viewed as a reason why they’ve fallen out of favor in the playoffs. It also hasn’t helped that they’re a 11-10 mark in September when they could’ve been better. Alas, it’s still the Reds.

Prediction


The Reds have been a respectable 25-38 against division opponents, but I can’t overlook the fact that the Brewers need to play better heading into a playoff run in the final few weeks. Brewers win 5-2

Betting trends


Projected lineup


Brewers:
Christian Yelich (L) LF
Willy Adames (R) SS
Rowdy Tellez (L) 1B
Hunter Renfroe (R) RF
Kolten Wong (L) 2B
Andrew McCutchen (R) DH
Jace Peterson (L) 3B
Omar Narvaez (L) C
Tyrone Taylor (R) CF

Reds:
TJ Friedl (L) LF
Jonathan India (R) DH
Kyle Farmer (R) SS
Jake Fraley (L) RF
Donovan Solano (R) 1B
Alejo Lopez (S) 2B
Matt Reynolds (R) 3B
Mike Siani (L) CF
Austin Romine (R) C

Statistical leaders


Brewers:
Batting average: Christian Yelich -- .258
Home runs: Rowdy Tellez -- 32
RBI: Willy Adames -- 95
Wins: Brandon Woodruff -- 12
ERA: Corbin Burnes -- 3.12

Reds:
Batting average: Kyle Farmer -- .258
Home runs: Kyle Farmer -- 13
RBI: Kyle Farmer -- 71
Wins: Alexis Diaz -- 6
ERA: N/A

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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