by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Apr 13, 2022
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
Where to watch: Bally Sports Wisconsin, MASN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Brewers -180, Orioles +150
BetMGM: Brewers -190, Orioles +155
Caesars: Brewers -175, Orioles +155
Season record
Brewers: 2-3
Orioles: 1-4
What a strong opening weekend for Scott Rickenbach going 3-0-0 with his best MLB picks. Opening weekend definitely showcased some intriguing matchups in this very-early stages of baseball, but we know it's a six-month marathon, not a sprint, for some of these teams. The same applies for baseball betting and not getting too caught up with the sticker shock of it all. Catch Scott's plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Brewers - Orioles preview and analysis
Even against the lowly teams of Major League Baseball, ones that we knew would eventually reel off that first win of the season and play the reigning NL Central champs tough, it was going to be a tough out for the Milwaukee Brewers to knock off the Baltimore Orioles.
Fresh off winning the series opener 2-0 on Monday, the Orioles took a 4-2 lead over the Brewers off a grand slam from Cedric Mullins. However, the Brewers bounced back to win 5-4 off the heels of the bullpen that might be the most dominant unit in baseball.
Devin Williams escaped a bases-loaded, no-out jam in the eighth inning, and Josh Hader came in for the ninth to shut the door and get the save for the Brewers.
"That's what makes them so great," Brewers manager Craig Counsell said. "In Devin's case, I thought he was a little out of sorts to start the inning. I thought (pitching coach) Chris Hook, the mound visit was really important there, and Devin got on track and was lights out."
Andrew McCutchen even turned back the clock to drive in three runs, including the go-ahead single in the seventh to break the 4-4 tie. Willy Adames scored three times, which is a major improvement after being shut out in two of their first four games to begin the season.
That’s what the Brewers are going to need to find in that second gear as it pertains to getting on the board. For as dominant as the starting rotation can be, the Brewers need to score runs, which is why it was so easy for them to be moved on from in four games of the NLDS last season.
Reigning Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes will get the nod for Milwaukee in this series finale.
"They made some mistakes defensively, and that helped us out," Counsell said. "We got some big two-out hits tonight, finally, which we've been lacking.”
Baltimore continues to be in that agonizing rebuild phase where they have talent, but it’s nowhere close enough to being good to contending at the right phase. Mullins and Ryan Mountcastle can only do so much in their younger years to try and build this team, but at least they’ve got something brewing.
Mullins had that grand slam, and Mountacastle also went 1-for-5. Trey Mancini was the only other Oriole to have two hits, as Baltimore mustered only seven total and had three errors. That is nothing new, unfortunately.
"We had some opportunities off some really good pitching," Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said. "We did a good job creating opportunities. We're just not cashing in."
Opposite of Burnes will be the Orioles’ top pitcher in John Means taking the mound. Means doesn’t have a decision on the ledger, but has a 2.25 ERA along with five strikeouts in his first start of the season against the Tampa Bay Rays on Opening Weekend. If anything, that’s even more of a reason to get somewhat excited.
Prediction
The Orioles are going to need big hits like Mullins’ blast in order to feel good about these stretches, but I can’t see them solving Burnes. When he has his medium-to-elite breaking pitches working, a combination of power and speed, it’s really tough to make things happen for the batters. I think Burnes shuts the door and gets Milwaukee another win. Brewers win 5-1
Betting trends
Brewers are 50-33 the past three seasons as a favorite of -150 or more.
Brewers are 38-28 the past three seasons as a road favorite of -110 or higher.
Orioles are 45-90 the past three seasons as an underdog of +150 or more.
Projected lineup
Brewers:
Kolten Wong (L) 2B
Willy Adames (R) SS
Christian Yelich (L) LF
Andrew McCutchen (R) DH
Rowdy Tellez (L) 1B
Hunter Renfroe (R) RF
Omar Narvaez (L) C
Lorenzo Cain (R) CF
Jace Peterson (L) 3B
Kolten Wong (L) 2B
Willy Adames (R) SS
Christian Yelich (L) LF
Andrew McCutchen (R) DH
Rowdy Tellez (L) 1B
Hunter Renfroe (R) RF
Omar Narvaez (L) C
Lorenzo Cain (R) CF
Jace Peterson (L) 3B
Orioles:
Cedric Mullins (L) CF
Ryan Mountcastle (R) DH
Trey Mancini (R) 1B
Austin Hays (R) LF
Ramon Urias (R) 2B
Anthony Santander (S) RF
Chris Owings (R) SS
Kelvin Gutierrez (R) 3B
Robinson Chirinos (R) C
Cedric Mullins (L) CF
Ryan Mountcastle (R) DH
Trey Mancini (R) 1B
Austin Hays (R) LF
Ramon Urias (R) 2B
Anthony Santander (S) RF
Chris Owings (R) SS
Kelvin Gutierrez (R) 3B
Robinson Chirinos (R) C
Starting pitchers
MIL: Corbin Burnes
BAL: John Means
Statistical leaders
Brewers:
Batting average: Christian Yelich -- .333
Hits: Two tied -- 6
Home runs: Three tied -- 1
RBI: Andrew McCutchen -- 3
Wins: N/A
Saves: Josh Hader -- 2
ERA: Corbin Burnes -- 5.40
Orioles:
Batting average: Ryan Mountcastle -- .300
Hits: Ryan Mountcastle -- 6
Home runs: Three tied -- 1
RBI: Cedric Mullins -- 6
Wins: N/A
Saves: Jorge Lopez -- 1
ERA: John Means -- 2.25
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
