Milwaukee Brewers vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 4/11/2022

Time: 3:05 p.m. ET

Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD

Where to watch: Bally Sports Wisconsin, MASN

DraftKings: Brewers -150, Orioles +130

BetMGM: NL

Caesars: Brewers -145,  Orioles +125

Brewers: 1-2

Orioles: 0-3

You'd never think there would come a time that the Baltimore Orioles would be considered a solid play, even early in the regular season, but the world may be on to something with their home opener on Monday against the Milwaukee Brewers at Camden Yards.

And the crazy thing is it has nothing to do with the Brewers looking pretty lethargic this weekend against the Chicago Cubs despite getting a win in the series finale on Sunday. I've never actually felt this confident about the worst team in baseball winning a game just because they might benefit from the home crowd.

The Orioles are coming off an 8-0 series-sweeping loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, which should not come as a surprise. Baltimore was held to just six hits behind 4.2 innings of three-hit ball from Corey Kluber. The rest of the Rays' bullpen allowed just three hits in the final 5.1 innings.

If you're looking for a bright spot offensively, Ryan Mountcastle is it. Somehow not getting more consideration for Rookie of the Year, Mountcastle is off to a strong start with five hits and batting .417. The Orioles' top slugger is off to a great start, and could be in line for a great year if keeps this up. He'd likely want to discuss winning over individual stats at this point.

"They have really good pitching, but we didn't do a very good job swinging the bats. We didn't make them work much," Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said. "We can improve our two-strike hitting, put more pressure on their defense. We have some guys scuffling early. I'd like to see them break out. We're putting too much pressure on ourselves."

The good news is with how bad the Orioles are, pressure will not be a factor this season. There are no expectations with this group other than trying to build on the foundation that Mountcastle and Mullins have put together. If there's a bit of resurgence with Trey Mancini and Rougned Odor, that's a bonus.

But on that note, what a hard spot for the Brewers to be in after losing two of three to the Chicago Cubs over the weekend. The strong spot of Milwaukee, its starting rotation, did what it could with Corbin Burnes, but only saw Brandon Woodruff get rocked in Game 2.

Milwaukee, however, found that second gear to defeat the Cubs in the series finale 5-4 on Sunday in Wrigley Field. Mike Brosseau hit a pinch-hit go-ahead home run in the top of the seventh inning. Once they got the lead, Milwaukee turned to its strong bullpen to shut the door.

"It's one of our strengths, to try to shorten games and have those guys be really solid at the end of games," manager Craig Counsell said.

Not that I don't think the Brewers can come back with a sweep of the lowly Orioles and move to 4-2 in the blink of an eye, but don't underestimate the want to win your home opener. The Orioles aren't going to get many options to make good by their fans this year, but a win in the home opener after a rough start in Tampa is a good way to at least make an effort. Orioles win 6-5

Brewers are 63-60 (+14.5 net games on money line) against AL East opponents since 1997.

Orioles are 29-58 (-13.3 net games on ML) the last three seasons as an underdog between +125 and +175.

Orioles are 18-22 (+4.3 on ML) in inter-league games the last three seasons.

Brewers:
Kolten Wong (L) 2B
Willy Adames (R) SS
Christian Yelich (L) LF
Andrew McCutchen (R) DH
Rowdy Tellez (L) 1B
Hunter Renfroe (R) RF
Omar Narvaez (L) C
Lorenzo Cain (R) CF
Jace Peterson (L) 3B

Orioles:
Cedric Mullins (L) CF
Ryan Mountcastle (R) 1B
Anthony Santander (S) DH
Trey Mancini (R) LF
Ramon Urias (R) 3B
Rougned Odor (L) 2B
Austin Hays (R) RF
Jorge Mateo (R) SS
Anthony Bemboom (L) C

MIL: Adrian Houser
BAL: Bruce Zimmermann

Batting average: Christian Yelich -- .375

Hits: Willy Adames -- 4

Home runs: Three tied -- 1

RBI: Four tied -- 2

Wins: N/A

Saves: Josh Hader -- 1

ERA: Corbin Burnes -- 5.40

Batting average: Ryan Mountcastle -- .417

Hits: Ryan Mountcastle -- 5

Home runs: Two tied -- 1

RBI: Ryan Mountcastle -- 2

Wins: N/A

Saves: N/A

ERA: John Means -- 2.25