Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/11/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 1:07 pm ET, Monday, October 11, 2021
Venue:  Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Where to Watch:  TBS

 

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Brewers +100, Braves -120; Over/Under 8 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Brewers +100, Braves -120; Over/Under 8 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Brewers +100, Braves -120; Over/Under 8 runs
 

Season Record

Milwaukee Brewers:  95-67 (1st place, NL Central)
Atlanta Braves:  88-73 (1st place, NL East)
 
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Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Preview and Analysis

 
Recent Form
Milwaukee Brewers:  4-6 last 10
Atlanta Braves:  8-2 last 10
 
 
 

Milwaukee Brewers Analysis

The Brewers are coming into this game after losing game 2 of this series 3-0 against the Braves. The series is now tied 1-1 and this will be the 3rd game between these 2 played on Monday. With that loss, the Brewers have now lost 5 of their last 6 games stretching back to the regular season. Corbin Burnes was given the start in game 1 and Brandon Woodruff was the starter in game 2 so it will likely be Freddy Peralta throwing the first pitch for them in this game 3 on Monday. He is 10-5 this season and has a 2.81 ERA. He was credited with a win in his last start but his team has lost 2 of their last 3 and 3 of their last 5 games when he has started. In his last start, he allowed 4 ER, 1 of them being a homer, and 1 BB with 5 strikeouts on 5 hits through 5.1 innings of work against the New York Mets back on Sunday, September 26. He has seen the Braves lineup 1 time this season and he is 1-0 in with game as he did not allow a single run. He has only pitched in 2 games in the playoffs before, never as a starter though both times he came out of the bullpen as a reliever. He only allowed 1 run in the 4 innings of play he has played in. Their offense has scored 14 runs in their last 5 games averaging just under 3 runs scored per game in that span and they have allowed their opponents to score 30 runs against them in that same span allowing 6 runs per game.
 

Atlanta Braves Analysis

The Braves are coming into this game after winning game 2 of this series 3-0 against the Brewers. The series is now tied 1-1 and the Braves have 3 of their last 4 games after that win. This will be game 3 of this series in a best-of-five and this game will be played on Monday. Charlie Morton got the start in game 1 and Max Fried got the nod in game 2 so it will be Ian Anderson who is the starting pitcher on the mound for them in this game 3. He is 9-5 with a 3.58 ERA this season. He has been credited with 4 straight wins and his team has won 3 of their last 4 games with him starting. In his last start, he allowed 2 ER, 1 being a HR, and 3 BB with 2 Ks on 3 hits through 6 IP against the Philadelphia Phillies back on Thursday, September 30. He has seen the Brewers lineup 1 time this year and he is 1-0 against them as he only allowed 1 run in that game. He has only started in 4 postseason games in his career, they were all last year and his team won 3 of those 4 games, he did not allow more than 2 runs in any of those games. Their offense has scored 18 runs in their last 5 games averaging under 4 runs scored per game in that span and they have allowed their opponents to score 11 runs against them in that same span allowing a little over 2 runs per game. 
 

 

Brewers vs Braves Prediction

The Braves have been playing in much better form coming into this series as the Brewers finished their regular season on a losing streak. They have tied this series 1-1 and now the Braves get to head home for 2 games feeling good as they can close out the series at home now with 2 straight wins. The Brewers have not only been in bad form, but they have not been hitting the ball well either. They have not really scored any runs in their last few and they will need to heat up their bats if they want to win this series. Even the pitching matchup in this game, Atlanta has the slight advantage with his recent form and playoff experience going with Anderson over Peralta here. The best bet to place in this game is on the Braves to win as all signs point to them taking this game.
 
Brewers Braves Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Monday, October 11, 2021 (1:07 pm ET start time) is Braves 5 Brewers 2.
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MLB Betting Trends

 
Milwaukee Brewers: 19-18 (+6.1 units) on the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher. 96-68 (+6.2 units) on the money line in all games. 69-40 (+16.7 units) on the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5. 50-31 (+12.8 units) on the money line in road games.
Atlanta Braves: 64-45 (-4.1 units) on the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher. 89-74 (-3.9 units) on the money line in all games. 46-40 (-4.6 units) on the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5. 42-38 (-12.6 units) on the money line in home games.
 

Key Injuries

 
Milwaukee Brewers:  A. Perdomo (RP) out for season - Back injury. J. Topa (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow injury. J. Curtiss (RP) out for season - Elbow injury.
Atlanta Braves:  E. Santana (RP) Out indefinitely - Ribs injury. G. Dayton (RP) Mid Oct - Shoulder injury. T. Davidson (RP) Mid Oct - Forearm injury.
 

Players to Watch

 
Milwaukee Brewers: Eduardo Escobar is one player to watch in this matchup. He leads his team in hits and in RBI this season. He continued his good run on Friday contributing to the team with another hit. He has been a big part of his team’s offense all year so look for him to make a big impact in this game. 
 
Atlanta Braves: Austin Riley is one player to watch in this contest. He leads his team in batting average this season. He continued on Friday with another hit in that game as his team did not do much in that game. Look for him to step up and keep getting on base with his hits in this game to help his team score some runs.
 

Notable Quotes

 
"He's just a really good pitcher, executing a lot of pitches. It spells a tough night for the offense." - Craig Counsell after his team lost game 2 of this series getting shut out in the game.
 
 
 
"He was phenomenal — all you could ask for. He came out, pounded the zone. He's been doing that since the All-Star break." - Austin Riley on the performance of Max Fried in their win over the Brewers in game 2.
 

Starting Lineups

 
Milwaukee Brewers
K. Wong 2B
W. Adames SS
E. Escobar 1B
A. Garcia RF
C. Yelich LF
L. Urias 3B
L. Cain CF
M. Pina C
B. Woodruff P
 
Atlanta Braves
J. Soler RF
F. Freeman 1B
O. Albies 2B
A. Riley 3B
A. Duvall CF
E. Rosario LF
T. d'Arnaud C
D. Swanson SS
M. Fried P

Statistical Leaders

 
Milwaukee Brewers
Batting Average:  K. Wong (.272)
Hits:  E. Escobar (139)
Home Runs:  A. Garcia (29)
RBI: E. Escobar (90)
Stolen Bases:  L. Cain (13)
Wins:  B. Suter (12)
Saves:  J. Hader (34)
ERA:  J. Hader (1.23)
 
Atlanta Braves
Batting Average:  A. Riley (.303)
Hits:  F. Freeman (180)
Home Runs:  A. Duvall (38)
RBI:  A. Duvall (113)
Stolen Bases:  O. Albies (20)
Wins:  C. Morton (14)
Saves:  W. Smith (37)
ERA:  L. Jackson (1.98)
 
Managers:
Milwaukee Brewers: Craig Counsell (7th season)
Atlanta Braves: Brian Snitker (6th season)
 

Weather Forecast

77 degrees F mostly sunny, 76% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 7 mph wind speeds SE.


Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

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