Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/28/2023

Game Time: 7:20 pm ET, Friday, July 28, 2023

Venue:  Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

Where to Watch:  BSSE

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Brewers +160, Braves -190; Over/Under:  10 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Brewers +160, Braves -190; Over/Under:  10 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Brewers +160, Braves -190; Over/Under:  10 runs

Milwaukee Brewers:  57-46 (1st place, NL Central)

Atlanta Braves:  64-36 (1st place, NL East)

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Milwaukee Brewers:  6-4 last 10

Atlanta Braves:  3-7 last 10

The Brewers are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Cincinnati Reds 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 57-46 record overall and have a road record of 28-22. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Braves on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 26th in the MLB with a .687 OPS. Freddy Peralta was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Adrian Houser is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 10 Ks on 6 hits through 6 IP against the Atlanta Braves.

The Braves are entering this series on a 2 game losing streak and got swept 2-0 in their 2-game series against the Boston Red Sox in their last series. They enter this game with a 64-36 record overall and have a home record of 32-19. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Brewers on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .823 OPS. Spencer Strider was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Yonny Chirinos is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 4-4 with a 4.02 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 8 earned runs, 2 homers, and 2 BB with 3 strikeouts on 9 hits through 5.1 innings played against the Kansas City Royals.

The current betting odds have the Brewers listed as a big underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Brewers have been rolling in their games lately as they now have the lead in the NL Central. Their offense hasn't been good all season but their pitching has been and they have some of the best pitching in the MLB right now. The Braves do have a really strong offense as they have the best offense in the MLB but lately they haven't been putting up a ton of runs in their games and the team has actually been regressing as a whole since coming out of the All-Star break. Their offense may be the best in the league but their pitching hasn't been great as they do give up a lot of runs in their games and the Brewers can definitely take advantage of the way they have been playing lately. The Brewers also have Houser on the mound here and he has been a solid and reliable starter all season, along with their great bullpen in this game, the Brewers will shut down this Braves offense that has been cooling off lately. The Braves also have Chirinos starting here who is making his 1st start as a Brave but he wasn't pitching well for the Rays in his last few appearances and he is not going to be any better here with the Brewers offense getting better lately. The Brewers have the better pitching matchup here and they are going to lean on their great pitching staff in this series. The best way to place a bet here is on the Brewers to win this game.

Brewers Braves Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 28, 2023 (7:20 pm ET start time) is Brewers 4 Braves 2.

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Milwaukee Brewers: 20-15 (+11.7 units) on the moneyline as a road underdog of +100 or higher. 28-22 (+10.7 units) on the moneyline in road games. 10-3 UNDER as an underdog of +150 or more. 19-8 UNDER on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10.

Atlanta Braves: 5-9 (-6.4 units) on the moneyline after a 5 game span with an OBP of .285 or worse. 19-16 (-5.5 units) on the moneyline after a loss. 10-3 UNDER at home when the total is 10 or higher. 12-7 UNDER in July games.

Milwaukee Brewers:  J. Winker (DH) Out indefinitely - Back. B. Woodruff (SP) Early Aug - Shoulder. J. Wilson (RP) Early Aug - Elbow. B. Sousa (SP) Early Aug - Shoulder. W. Miley (SP) Early Aug - Elbow. R. Tellez (1B) Mid Aug - Forearm. B. Anderson (1B) Early Aug - Back. D. Ruf (DH) Mid Aug - Knee. G. Mitchell (LF) out for season - Shoulder. A. Ashby (SP) Early Sept - Shoulder.

Atlanta Braves:  J. Chavez (RP) Out indefinitely - Shin. E. Adrianza (2B) Early Aug - Shoulder. M. Fried (SP) Early Aug - Forearm. D. Lee (SP) Early Aug - Shoulder. K. Wright (SP) Early Sept - Shoulder. S. Hilliard (LF) Out indefinitely - Heel. K. Allard (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. A. Minter (RP) Out indefinitely - Pectoral. N. Anderson (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. T. Matzek (RP) out for season - Elbow. H. Ynoa (SP) out for season - Elbow.

“He was dialed in with everything today. He was ahead in the count often. No waste pitches. Competitive pitches right away. This is as well as you’ve seen Freddy pitch." - Craig Counsell after his team’s win against the Reds in their game on Wednesday.

“We just played a really good team. They’re coming together at the right time. We typically score more than four runs in two games, but Spencer had a really solid outing. Just couldn’t seal the deal.” - Brian Snitker after his team’s loss against the Red Sox in their game on Wednesday.

Christian Yelich (L) DH

William Contreras (R) C

Willy Adames (R) SS

Sal Frelick (L) RF

Andruw Monasterio (R) 3B

Abraham Toro (S) 1B

Tyrone Taylor (R) LF

Brice Turang (L) 2B

Joey Wiemer (R) CF

Ronald Acuna Jr. (R) RF

Ozzie Albies (S) 2B

Austin Riley (R) 3B

Matt Olson (L) 1B

Sean Murphy (R) C

Marcell Ozuna (R) DH

Eddie Rosario (L) LF

Orlando Arcia (R) SS

Michael Harris II (L) CF

Batting Average:  Abraham Toro (.455)

Hits:  Christian Yelich (109)

Home Runs:  Willy Adames (17)

RBI:  Christian Yelich (57)

Stolen Bases:  Christian Yelich (22)

Wins:  Corbin Burnes (9)

Saves:  Devin Williams (26)

ERA:  Alex Claudio (0.00)

Batting Average:  Charlie Culberson (1.000)

Hits:  Ronald Acuna (131)

Home Runs:  Matt Olson (32)

RBI:  Matt Olson (80)

Stolen Bases:  Ronald Acuna (48)

Wins:  Spencer Strider (11)

Saves:  Raisel Iglesias (18)

ERA:  Dereck Rodriguez (0.00)

Managers:

Milwaukee Brewers: Craig Counsell (9th season)

Atlanta Braves: Brian Snitker (8th season)